New Brunswick Area Lacks Beds For Coronavirus Surge: Report

NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ — As the number of coronavirus cases steadily increases — and New Jersey's death rate climbed to five on Wednesday — there is a strong potential for hospitals in the United States to simply run out of beds to treat incoming serious cases.

This is according to an analysis published Tuesday by Harvard Global Health Institute and ProPublica. The study examined every hospital in the nation and how many beds they have, including here in New Brunswick, as well as the projected rates of coronavirus over the next 18 months.

As of Wednesday, New Jersey has recorded 427 confirmed cases of coronavirus and five deaths. But if the rates of coronavirus continue to climb based on infection rates in prior pandemics, New Brunswick-area hospitals would not have enough beds for the most critically ill patients, the Harvard study found.

The study did not focus on one particular hospital, but counted beds at all the New Brunswick-area hospitals. New Brunswick has the Catholic-run St. Peter's and Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital.

There is currently one confirmed coronavirus case at St. Peter's and two at Robert Wood.

“We are working on identifying staffing, medical supplies and bed capacity," said Leslie Hirsch, the president and CEO at St. Peter's. "In the meantime, we must remain focused on decreasing the spread of the disease through proper hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, social distancing and staying in when possible. We all need to take this unprecedented situation seriously."

On Tuesday, Gov. Phil Murphy formally requested the support of the United States military and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to expand hospital and intensive care units in New Jersey. The state of New Jersey is looking to open shuttered hospital wings and hospitals to handle the expected influx.

New Jersey could be facing a peak shortfall of anywhere from 123,000 to 313,000 hospital beds sometime between May and October, according to state Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli. New Jersey may need an additional 2,000 critical care beds in the next two coming weeks alone.

"There are predictions that many parts of the United States will have far too few hospital beds if the new coronavirus continues to spread," said Persichilli Wednesday. "That's why we're working with hospitals to develop surge and capacity planning."

She said 260 additional beds should be brought online by Wednesday. Of those, 199 will be in North Jersey, 11 will be in Central Jersey and 50 will be in South Jersey. Persichilli expects 227 additional beds to become available within next three to four weeks

The study's authors found that America's best hope is to slow the virus spread, and thus not overwhelm the hospital system. The best way to do that is by social distancing.

“Our model gives hospital leaders and policy makers a clear sense of when they will hit capacity and strategic information on how to prepare for rising numbers of patients,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “If people wonder 'Why am I social distancing?' and 'Why am I isolating myself?' this data makes that real.”

From ProPublica:

As of 2018, the New Brunswick area had 2,180 total hospital beds, of which about 72 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 620 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 210 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The New Brunswick area has a population of about 1.1 million residents; 14 percent are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In the moderate scenario, in which 40 percent of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, the New Brunswick area would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

It is estimated that about 8 percent of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40 percent of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in the New Brunswick area would receive an estimated 70,100 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 2,340 beds over 12 months, which is 3.8 times times the number of available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the New Brunswick area, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 130 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 4 times times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

The report underscores the seriousness of the need to "flatten the curve" through social distancing, which health officials hope will slow the spread of the disease and keep hospital caseloads manageable.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica’s full story and specifics about hospitals in your area