Start 'Em or Sit 'Em for Fantasy Football Week 12

Well, we're truly in it now.

With Week 12 of the 2019 fantasy football season about to get underway, the playoffs will be here before you know it. And depending on how the first 11 weeks went, getting there may hinge on peeling off a winning streak.

Circumstances might not make that feat any easier. In just the last week, we saw prominent fantasy contributors such as Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and Indianapolis Colts running back Marlon Mack join the long list of the NFL's walking wounded.

Never mind the late bye week that is sidelining guys like Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Los Angeles Chargers running back Melvin Gordon III.

Fantasy owners have more pressure to make the right decisions with their lineups this week. Make the wrong one, and it could be all she wrote.

I'm here to help.

Every week during the 2019 season, I've taken a look at start/sit questions on the Bleacher Report app and selected some that will offer insight into players who could be due for big games or vanishing acts—the sorts of explosions or disappointments that can make or break a week. And in this case, a season.

Let's get the stretch run started off right.

Still can't figure out your fantasy football lineup for the week? Check out Your Fantasy Fire Drill with Matt Camp, and he'll solve your problems live. Submit your questions and tune in every Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET, only on the B/R app.

Um. I think the caps lock on someone's computer is stuck. Either that, or they wanted to emphasize just how badly they need guidance on a Week 12 starter under center.

Odd as it may sound, Tom Brady of the New England Patriots is an easy "no." It's not just the statistical dry spell in which he's barely averaged 250 passing yards along with three touchdowns over his last three games. His team will be facing a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2019.

Oakland Raiders signal-caller Derek Carr has a better matchup against the New York Jets. But he hasn't thrown for over 300 yards in a game this season and has just one three-score outing. His fantasy ceiling is limited.

As far as Allen, it depends on which one you mean—three are starting this weekend at QB. However, given that Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback for most of this season and would be an easy call over either Kyle Allen (Carolina Panthers) or Brandon Allen (Denver Broncos), I'm going to assume you mean one of the latter two. No and no.

That brings us to Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns. He has just 11 touchdowns for the year, but his play has improved in recent weeks. On Sunday, his team welcomes a Miami Dolphins defense that has been lit up by opposing quarterbacks for the seventh-most fantasy points allowed.

He's the best of an unimpressive lot.

Now use your inside voice.

The Call: Mayfield

You know, after 11-plus weeks of writing this column, I've come to a realization. Every fantasy team on the planet has better wide receivers than mine.

Anyway, two of the selections are easy calls. DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans is arguably the best wideout in the game and a top-10 option in point-per-reception leagues. The Jacksonville Jaguars' DJ Chark Jr. has been phenomenal. After hauling in eight catches for 104 yards and two scores last week, he ranks inside the top five.

That pair should be in the starting lineup every week except their byes.

That leaves one spot and three players. In a vacuum, the third spot would be an easy call. Over the first eight weeks, only one wide receiver had more PPR fantasy points than Cooper Kupp. But since he roasted the Cincinnati Bengals for over 200 yards in Week 8, his production has fallen way off—largely because Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff is struggling.

That opens the door for either DeVante Parker or Deebo Samuel. Parker is out despite a big Week 11—the Miami Dolphins offense remains too hit-or-miss.

Samuel is another story, though. The San Francisco 49ers rookie has hauled in eight catches for 100-plus yards in each of the last two games and was targeted 21 times over that span.

The play will take some guts, but ride the hot hand with the youngster....provided his sore elbow doesn't sideline him (in which case, hold your breath and roll with Kupp).

The Call: Hopkins, Chark and Samuel

With players like San Francisco's George Kittle, New York's Evan Engram and Atlanta's Austin Hooper all banged up to one degree or another, plenty of fantasy owners are sorting through the second- and third-tier options at tight end in search of a Week 12 starter.

Greg Olsen of the Carolina Panthers was once an elite fantasy option at the position, and as he showed with eight catches for 98 yards a couple of weeks ago against the Green Bay Packers, the 34-year-old can still post a solid stat line.

Jacob Hollister comes off Seattle's bye week following two straight big games for the Seahawks. Over those two contests, he piled up 12 catches for 99 yards and three touchdowns.

Ryan Griffin of the New York Jets is also riding a hot streak. He hauled in five passes for a robust 109 yards and a score last week against the Washington Redskins, and he now has at least four catches and 50 yards in three of his past four games.

All three of those tight ends slot ahead of Dallas Goedert of the Philadelphia Eagles. It's no knock on Goedert, who has a score in three of his last four outings. But he's Philly's No. 2 tight end and hasn't caught five passes in a game since Week 6.

Given three comparable options, the matchup will break the "tie" here. Two of the three play teams that rank outside the top 20 in PPR fantasy points allowed to tight ends in 2019. One ranks inside the top five.

That's Griffin, who faces an Oakland Raiders team that can be thrown on.

The Call: Griffin

The wildest thing about this query is the fact that a young running back who was looking for work not that long ago might be the easiest "yes" of this rather uninspiring lot.

In his first game action with the Lions last week, Scarbrough both out-snapped and outproduced Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic in the Detroit backfield. The results weren't jaw-dropping by any stretch (14 carries for 55 yards), but 14 carries is 14 carries, and Scarbrough found the end zone in the first regular-season game of his admittedly brief career.

The question then becomes who plays with the former Alabama standout.

Marvin Jones Jr. has been hot of late (17/246/3 over his last three games), but without the benefit of PPR, trusting a wide receiver here is almost as risky as doubling up on Lions—even in a favorable matchup with a bad Washington defense.

Rookie running back Devin Singletary has shown flashes of considerable talent and has 15 or more carries in two of his last three games. But the matchup he faces in Week 12 is no joke: The Denver Broncos are 22nd in PPR fantasy points given up to running backs in 2019.

That leaves Jaylen Samuels of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who squares off against a terrible defense in Cincinnati. I'd feel better about Samuels were this a PPR league, but with the Steelers ravaged by injuries, he might be the best skill-position weapon they have in Week 12.

The Call: Samuels and Scarbrough

Injuries are an unfortunate reality in fantasy football, especially late in the season. The league's bye-week schedule is just a punch in the gut; extending it through Week 12 has left many fantasy owners shorthanded in one of the most important weeks of the regular season.

However, we must persevere and overcome adversity. 

At tight end, the decision will essentially be made for you. If George Kittle's injuries prevent him from playing Sunday night against the Green Bay Packers, then Ross Dwelley of the San Francisco 49ers is the play. If Kittle is a go, hold your nose, start rookie T.J. Hockenson of the Detroit Lions and hope for the best.

At quarterback, Detroit's Jeff Driskel played better than expected against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11, but he's still, um, Jeff Driskel. Aaron Rodgers of the Packers certainly has the pedigree, but in 2019, for the most part, he hasn't had the numbers, and his matchup is awful.

Jacoby Brissett of the Indianapolis Colts threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns in Week 7 against a Houston Texans defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2019. Now he gets a rematch. 

The running back call is tricky, in that it involves three reserves only seeing action because of injuries. Brian Hill of the Atlanta Falcons had 15 carries last week but just 30 yards. He also faces one of the best run defenses in the league in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. Trey Edmunds of the Pittsburgh Steelers has a fantastic matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (in theory) but just 20 carries all season long.

That leaves Bo Scarbrough, who draws a Washington Redskins team that ranks sixth in PPR fantasy points given up to running backs this season.

The Call: Dwelley (if Kittle sits), Brissett, Scarbrough

The first slot here is a no-brainer and then some: Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns with 11 and ranks well inside RB1 territory for the season. He's an every-week must-start regardless of opponent.

After that, though, the water muddies quickly.

It's a bit of a dice roll, but one of the other slots should belong to Derrius Guice of the Washington Redskins. There's risk, to be sure. Guice has missed most of the season with a knee injury, and his workload for Week 12 isn't certain. But he looked good in his return to action a week ago, and he faces a Detroit Lions defense surrendering the most PPR fantasy points per game to the position.

That brings us to David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears and Kareem Hunt of the Cleveland Browns. Hunt has the superior matchup as the Miami Dolphins are eighth in fantasy points per game given up to running backs. But he's also the Browns' No. 2 back behind Nick Chubb, although he's gotten double-digit touches in each of the past two weeks.

The primary concern for Montgomery is health. He rolled his ankle last week in practice and was a game-time decision against the Los Angeles Rams. The rookie suited up, but his 2.2 yards per carry didn't instill a ton of confidence.

The New York Giants are a middling matchup for running backs. Were it a little better, Montgomery's more certain workload would be the difference here.

But if Cleveland can get a lead, Hunt could be set for his most carries of the season against a soft run defense. The Browns are also consistently using him as a receiver out of the backfield.

In a bit of an upset, Montgomery is the odd man out here.

The Call: Jones, Guice, Hunt

I had to include this question because given all the injuries at tight end in this most important of weeks, information on second-tier players at the position has value for fantasy owners. That's rather the point of this exercise, believe it or not.

The last three games for Gerald Everett of the Los Angeles Rams are the third-year-pro in a nutshell. In Week 8 against the Cincinnati Bengals, he had just two catches for 15 yards. Two weeks later in Pittsburgh, that number swelled to eight receptions for 68 yards. But last week against the Chicago Bears, Everett was right back on a milk carton with one grab for 20 yards.

He's just too inconsistent to trust in a bottom-four fantasy matchup with the red-hot Baltimore Ravens.

Jared Cook of the New Orleans Saints has been somewhat more consistent. In each of the past three games, the 32-year-old has tallied at least 11 PPR fantasy points. Cook has found the end zone in two of his last three contests.

Greg Olsen hasn't had that sort of success finding the end zone. Both of his touchdowns this season came against the Arizona Cardinals back in Week 3. He does, however, benefit from a slightly better matchup for tight ends when the Saints and his Carolina Panthers meet this week in the Big Easy.

Still, the Saints are rolling and playing at home, while the Panthers are in disarray offensively outside of running back Christian McCaffrey.

Get Cook-ing…and lower your voice.

The Call: Cook

Now this looks a bit more like my wide receiver corps in most leagues. There's some potential, to be sure, but also uncertainty and a lack of a true top-end anchor.

That's usually the price of drafting a lot of running backs early or snagging an elite tight end.

Michael Gallup of the Dallas Cowboys is doing what he can to become just such a fantasy asset. His 15/257/2 stat line over the last three weeks is good for 11th in PPR fantasy points among wide receivers over that span.

And while it's true Gallup and the Cowboys travel to meet a New England Patriots team that's dead last in PPR fantasy points given up to wideouts, he will likely at least dodge the kiss of fantasy death that is drawing Stephon Gilmore in coverage. Bill Belichick has been known to use his Pro-Bowl corner to neutralize an opponent's No. 1 wide receiver, but that title still belongs to Amari Cooper in Dallas.

Gallup gets one of these two spots, but the second is a toss-up.

Both Marvin Jones Jr. of the Detroit Lions and Curtis Samuel of the Carolina Panthers are catching passes from different quarterbacks than when the season began. But if anything, that's only helped their fantasy value, as both pass-catchers have multiple touchdown grabs over the past three games.

Jones, in particular, has been on quite the rip: His 17 catches for 246 yards and three touchdowns the past three weeks rank third in PPR fantasy points among receivers. The change to Jeff Driskel can't be ignored, but Jones hauled in two scores from the former backup in Week 12.

He gets the nod over Samuel here.

The Call: Gallup and Jones

This isn't a start/sit question, per se. But it's one that deserved a detailed answer.

Over the first nine weeks of the 2019 season, Nick Chubb was the best thing the Cleveland Browns had going offensively and the most valuable fantasy asset on the team. The second-year pro ranked sixth among running backs in PPR fantasy points.

However, since Kareem Hunt made his return to action, Chubb's production has fallen substantially. He has fallen to 19th among fantasy running backs over those two games—not terrible, but not what fantasy owners had come to expect.

Here's the thing, though: It's not like the bottom has fallen out. Chubb gained 92 yards on the ground last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and 116 against the Buffalo Bills the week before that. Those efforts came against teams that rank 18th and 23rd, respectively, in PPR fantasy points per game given up to running backs.

Also, while Chubb's receiving usage has dipped, his snap count hasn't—or at least not markedly. Chubb's 81 percent share in Week 10 against the Bills was his third-highest since all the way back in Week 3.

Yes, Hunt's arrival has had an impact on Chubb's fantasy value, and that impact hasn't been positive. It also hasn't been drastic by any stretch. His dip is the result of a pair of iffy matchups and the bad luck of not getting any short-yardage gimme touchdowns. Nothing more.

Chubb gets his best fantasy matchup in weeks Sunday against a Miami Dolphins team giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (148.3) in the NFL.

If he doesn't get his in Week 12, then you can fret. For now, though, it's all good. 

The Call: Take a Chill Pill

Now, with all the alacrity of a Kansas City Chiefs scoring march and all the accuracy of a Philip Rivers throw, let's bang out some more questions rapid-fire style.

It's a capital-sized problem for owright: "I have [Derrius] Guice and [Adrian] Peterson. What should I do?"

Given that you have two shares of the Washington offense, weep softly. Kidding aside, this week's matchup with the Detroit Lions is as good as it gets for running backs in fantasy. Guice is the preferred option in Week 12, but both could conceivably have at least flex value.

DATE_MIKE needs to replace injured Colts running back Marlon Mack: "Would you rather have the Williams guy for Indy or Carlos Hyde?"

Jonathan Williams was rock-solid for Indianapolis in Week 11, piling up 116 yards on the ground with just 13 carries. But that was one game. Since Week 4, Hyde has been a top-25 PPR option among running backs and serves as the lead ball-carrier for the Texans. Stick with the more proven option.

For jeremyjhunt, it's picking a wide receiver from a list of three: "Robert Woods, Deebo Samuel or DeVante Parker?"

This is a matter of which receiver plays in an offense that can be trusted. That's certainly not Parker in Miami. And right now, it's not Woods in Los Angeles, either. Samuel is the hot name in Week 12, and it's with good reason. The rookie can play. If he sits out, Woods is the backup plan. The Rams will have to throw the ball more Monday night whether they want to or not.

AlexMangarelli has what's known as a good problem to have: "[Drew] Brees or [Deshaun] Watson?"

Had the Houston Texans not just gotten their heads handed to them by the Baltimore Ravens, this wouldn't really be a question. As good as Brees is, Watson's ability to gain yardage with his legs adds another dimension to his fantasy value. Watson is a top-five fantasy quarterback in most scoring systems for the year, and the two matchups are nearly identical. Watson easily.

griffinpowers has a flex question: "Josh Gordon, Curtis Samuel or Golden Tate?"

Gordon is out due to a modest expected target share as the No. 3 receiver in Seattle. Samuel has been solid, but Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen most assuredly has not. Tate has been targeted over eight times per game this season. He's the play.

It's a two-parter for orangeanddred: "[Jacob] Hollister or [Darren] Waller and [Dede] Westbrook or [Christian] Kirk?

Time for the obligatory reminder to watch the bye weeks, folks: Kirk is out in Week 12. At tight end, Hollister has been quite the find for the Seattle Seahawks in 2019, but Waller is the third-most-targeted tight end in the NFL. Targets equal opportunity.

MfNate is about to fall into a classic fantasy football trap: "Dak [Prescott] vs. New England or [Nick] Foles vs. Tennessee?"

This smells of overthinking. Yes, the New England Patriots are a bad fantasy matchup for just about every position on the field. But Prescott has the most passing yards in franchise history through 10 games of a season and a host of other team marks.  A middling day for him and the best-case scenario for Foles against the Tennessee Titans aren't much different.

Finally, we have one more quarterback quandary from bingobangomango: "[Aaron] Rodgers vs. SF or [Jameis] Winston vs. ATL?"

From an NFL perspective, there's no comparing this pair. And if your league penalizes heavily for interceptions, the gap in fantasy narrows. But while Winston is throwing the ball all over the yard on a weekly basis, Rodgers' statistical production in 2019 has been modest by his standards. As odd as it may sound, Winston is the way to go here.

Have other fantasy football start/sit questions? Post them here, on the Bleacher Report app or on Twitter @IDPSharks, and I'll do my best to help.

Gary Davenport was the Fantasy Sports Writers Association 2017 Football Writer of the Year.