STATEN ISLAND, N.Y.-- A data-driven model, which acts as a warning system for the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic across the United States, has moved New York and New Jersey out of the small group of states “on track to contain” the disease.
But both states, in the midst of their slow, phased lifting of restrictions aimed at limiting the spread, are still identified by the model as having “controlled disease growth.”
The model, Covid Act Now, is among the projections used by governmental officials across the country to understand the current track of the disease.
The makers of the model describe Covid Act Now as “a multidisciplinary team of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts, and public policy leaders working to provide disease intelligence and data analysis on COVID in the U.S.”
The information is updated every three days; the data for New York and New Jersey was updated Friday.
The model’s data puts New York’s infection rate at 0.96, which the researchers say means “COVID is still spreading, but slowly.”
“COVID in New York is spreading in a slow and controlled fashion, and New York’s COVID preparedness meets international standards,” the website says. “If this trend continues, New York may eventually achieve herd immunity, though this may take years.”
The model predicts that, even if all restrictions were lifted in New York, that hospitals would not experience overload in the next 30 days.
New York’s positive test rate remains low and contact tracing is well in place, both positive markers in the model.
Only three states are still currently listed as on track to contain COVID-19 -- Connecticut, Vermont and Massachusetts.
States such as Idaho, Arizona, Missouri, Florida, Alabama and South Carolina are all listed as having an active or imminent outbreak and have either a high or exponentially growing infection rate according to the website.