Wednesday was a day of more macabre milestones in California.
Counties around the state reported more deaths than any previous day of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data compiled by this news organization: 155, pushing the cumulative death toll north of 8,000 and the seven-day average over 96 per day.
That afternoon, the state surpassed New York for the country’s highest case count, rising to 418,964 with another 12,122 positive tests Tuesday — the second-most in a single day.
And on the same day, San Francisco’s top health official warned that New York City’s experience this spring could just as easily be SF by early fall.
Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco’s director of public health, said it was a “critical time for all of us” amid a surge that has increased hospitalizations and the average number of daily cases to new highs in the city. Still, the city remains better positioned than others in California and well shy of the crisis in New York City.
“I’m very concerned that as cases increase, it’s plausible we could get in a New York-like situation in the late summer or early fall,” Colfax said at a virtual news conference Wednesday, though he noted San Francisco was testing at a higher rate than other major metros like Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver, Boston and New York, while having the lowest rate of cases and deaths among them. “Therefore we have a strong foundation to build upon, and we are doing exactly that.”
About 3,000 miles and the entirety of the continental U.S. separates San Francisco and New York City, and the two cities have taken similarly divergent paths in their battles with the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the height of the outbreak in New York, the hospital system in the country’s most populous metropolis was overrun by COVID patients. Even after its largest month-over-month increase in hospitalizations, San Francisco still had more than a third of its acute beds available (650) and more than half of its intensive care units (405).
Hospitals in the city were beginning to accept transfer patients from other counties at this time last month. In the time since, however, hospitalizations have increased 153% to a new high of 99 on Tuesday, despite a decrease in transfer patients.
The official figures show 1,724 patients hospitalized in New York City at its peak on April 6, though antibody studies have suggested testing was capturing a sliver of all cases at the time. For San Francisco to reach that per-capita level, it would amount to about 183 hospital patients — about double the current levels.
At that time, more than 500 New Yorkers were dying each day. In other words: for weeks, there were 10 times the number of deaths each day in New York City (about 566) than San Francisco has experienced for the entirety of the pandemic (53). Even as it squashed its curve, New York’s per-capita daily death toll (1.15 per 1 million per day) was still higher than San Francisco’s (0.49 per 1 million) more than three months after its peak.
The majority of California’s deaths and hospitalizations from the virus continue to occur in Central and Southern California. Los Angeles contributed 59 of the 155 statewide deaths Wednesday, while the 28 deaths in Riverside County were its most in a single day and the second-most in the state. San Diego (18) and Kern (10) counties also reported double-digits death tolls Wednesday.
There were nine deaths from the virus reported Wednesday in the Bay Area, led by four in Alameda County. It was also one of five counties in the region to report at least 100 new cases Tuesday: Santa Clara (275), Contra Costa (271), Alameda (260), Solano (125) and San Mateo (102). The 1,262 positive tests across the region were its second-most of the pandemic, while its seven-day average of new cases climbed to a new high: 945 per day — 160% more than a month ago.
The average daily death toll in the Bay Area reached its highest level since the end of April (8 per day) but remains far less than in Los Angeles (40 per day; about 2 million more people), the rest of Southern California (30 per day; about 3 million more people) and Central California (15 per day; 2 million fewer people).
Once again, hospitalizations rose to new highs in the Bay Area and California. The region has seen an 8.7% increase just in the past two days, rising to 760 patients on Tuesday. Statewide, the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 rose to 7,170 – a new high and 94% more than a month ago.
While ICU incubations were also at new highs Tuesday, the number of counties with strained capacity was half of what it was to start the week, according to the state health department. It had fallen to four counties with less than 20% of ICU beds available: Imperial (92.7% full), Madera (84.6%), Butte (84.2%) and Fresno (83.6%).
California has likely surpassed New York for good in total cases — it is growing at 10 times the rate — but Florida and Texas are both adding even more cases per day than California and could eventually seize the maligned top spot. The case count in the U.S. is growing by 66,000 per day and was more than 3.9 million as of Tuesday, while the death toll had surpassed 143,000, the most in the world.
