While severe thunderstorms can occur any time during the year, they're most frequent across the southern states during March, April and May.
Why is this?
To sum it up, our temperatures begin to rebound from winter. High humidity becomes more consistent in our atmosphere. Humidity is fuel for thunderstorms.
The more moisture in the air, the more rain we're likely to see if a strong storm system approaches.
Although cold fronts become less common this time of year, they still push through. These frontal boundaries provide lift in the atmosphere. A combination of these factors and more are why severe thunderstorms occur more during spring. Weak cold fronts, high humidity and warmer air. This is a recipe for severe weather.
With that being said, we could certainly use rain. We're behind on our yearly rainfall along with worsening drought across South Texas.
"Drier conditions in the Southwest U.S. associated with La Nina and the failed 2020 summer monsoon have been contributing factors to the development and intensification of what represents the most significant U.S. spring drought since 2013, which will impact approximately 74 million people."
-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
On average, the long-range forecast calls for most of spring to be filled with warmth and dry surface conditions. With drought already severe across our area, this outlook is not promising.
NOAA also released their U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook and U.S. Spring Flood Outlook. Take a look.
The first map displays brown and yellow over much of Texas. Moreover, where drought is most likely to continue and that includes the Coastal Bend. This outlook is valid through June 30, 2021. These are based on short and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts.
The second map illustrates parts of the country where there are greater risks of flooding through May. This includes states such as Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and much of the Mid-West.
This doesn't mean we will not get rain. We'll see rain but in short supply. In fact, there are rain chances in the extended forecast for the first full week of Spring. Let's hope we receive some beneficial rain.
