Despite a lack of Arctic air across the Lower 48 states during the first full week of the new year, storms will continue to brew and cause trouble in the form of snow -- and not just across northern areas.
AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping an eye on a storm that will emerge from the northern Rockies during the middle of the week. Not only is the system forecast to bring accumulating snow to parts of the South, but it might also take a northward jog along the Atlantic coast this weekend.
The overall weather pattern this week will resemble a March setup rather than one typical of early January, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
During March, storms can produce snow without a great deal of cold air.
Similarly, the air is expected to be just cold enough for snow from parts of Kentucky and Tennessee to portions of the Carolinas, Virginia and northern Georgia during the second half of this week.
"Following several inches of snow in a narrow north-to-south zone from parts of the Dakotas to northern Missouri from Tuesday night to Wednesday night, the storm will reorganize farther south and begin to strengthen," AccuWeather Meteorologist Reneé Duff said.
How much snow will fall from Wednesday night to Thursday night from southern Missouri and northern Arkansas to the middle portions of Kentucky and Tennessee will depend on how quickly the storm strengthens and begins to manufacture its own cold air.
This process is fairly common during storms in March and can deliver snow to areas surprisingly far south even with no Arctic air present at the onset. At this time, 3-6 inches of snow is forecast to fall along the borders of Missouri and Arkansas with an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 10 inches.
The storm is forecast to spread rain along the northeastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts from Thursday to Friday.
"An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is likely to block the storm's northward progression and force it to take a more southern track," Ms. Duff said.
Farther inland across the region, the atmosphere is likely to become cold enough to produce not only a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, but also the likelihood of accumulating snow from portions of eastern Tennessee to northern Georgia, northern and western North Carolina and southern and eastern Virginia.
The strength of the storm will dictate how heavily the snow comes down and how cold the air becomes as a result.
A weak storm may only result in light precipitation and marginal temperatures. Much of the snow may melt as it falls in areas outside of the southern Appalachians if the storm remains weak. On the other hand, should the storm become potent, the rate of precipitation can be heavy, causing the atmosphere to cool down enough to bring an accumulation to grassy areas, roads and sidewalks well away from the mountains, including in lower elevations and perhaps even to the coast.
The storm is forecast to bring 6-12 inches of snow over the mountains of eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina with an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 18 inches over the highest elevations.
From 3 to 6 inches of snow is forecast to extend from the mountains of northern Georgia to the Piedmont areas of northern North Carolina and southern Virginia with 1-3 inches in store as far northwest as the mountains in east-central Tennessee and southeastern Kentucky, as far to the north as part of central Virginia and perhaps as far to the southeast as parts of the Greenville, South Carolina, and Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, metro areas. There is a chance that a coating to an inch of snow will reach the coastal areas of northeastern North Carolina and the Tidewater of Virginia.
Whether or not the storm will make a northward turn upon reaching the Atlantic coast is also not set in stone at this time.
The strength of the storm may determine whether it takes a route more toward the north, which could allow it to hug the coast, or east, which would bring it out to sea.
"The weather pattern around Greenland suggests that storms will tend to strengthen upon reaching the Atlantic coast," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys.
"When storms strengthen along the coast, there is a greater chance of them turning northward or hugging the coast, rather than heading eastward and out to sea," Mr. Roys added.
Given the look of the overall weather pattern from Friday to Saturday, there is some room for the storm to push northward along the Atlantic coast. Some questions remain around how close to the coast the northward turn could occur.
At this point, the chance of rain and/or snow is not zero this weekend from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.
People with travel plans from the northern mid-Atlantic coast to New England may want to monitor the progress of the storm, especially during the second half of this week, for potential changes in the forecast. AccuWeather will continue to provide updates on the storm and other weather systems across the United States.
Should a strong storm turn northward along the Atlantic coast, it may then draw a brief burst of colder air southward into the Eastern states.
In the wake of the storm slated for the South from Thursday to Saturday, there is the potential for another storm two to three days later.
How much snow and ice occurs, if any, with the second storm will depend on the track. A track that swings well to the south and east would avoid the necessary cold air for snow and ice. However, a track that hugs the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts spanning Sunday, Monday and Tuesday would most likely bring a swath of snow, sleet and freezing rain from parts of northern and central Texas to the Carolina coast.
The potential for southern U.S. snow and ice events may not stop early next week. As Arctic air begins to push southward over the Central and Eastern states during the second half of January, the southern storm track may remain active.