Predicting destinations, contracts for NFL's top remaining free agents
It's been almost three months since the NFL's free-agency period began, and multiple impact players - including two past No. 1 overall picks - are still without teams due in large part to the unprecedented circumstances affecting the offseason.
We're predicting where six of those players will sign and what their contracts could look like:
Cam Newton
Newton is the biggest name available and the hardest to predict. Many still see the 2015 MVP as a top-10 quarterback, but a lack of available starting jobs around the league could be his undoing.
He's certainly better than Gardner Minshew, but the Jacksonville Jaguars appear to be undergoing a rebuild and likely want to roll with the cheap sophomore rather than sign Newton to a big contract.
The New England Patriots aren't waving the white flag without Tom Brady, but they enter the campaign with a league-low $1.3 million in cap space. The Los Angeles Chargers, who were once the favorites for Newton, drafted Justin Herbert at No. 6 overall and already have a veteran option in Tyrod Taylor.
Washington Redskins head coach Ron Rivera teased he could be interested in reuniting with Newton, though his team seems committed to giving 2019 first-rounder Dwayne Haskins another year to develop.
Newton's best option for a starting job is probably to wait for a quarterback to go down with an injury in training camp. But if he wants a deal in the near future, joining a playoff contender in need of a talented backup - similar to what Jameis Winston did when he signed with the New Orleans Saints - is likely his best bet. The Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tennessee Titans are all possible landing spots in that case.
With Ben Roethlisberger now 38 years old and coming off a season-ending elbow injury, the Steelers are the top option, even though the team holds only $5 million in cap space. Pittsburgh expressed confidence in Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, but the two youngsters struggled to replace Roethlisberger last year, which was was the main reason the club missed the playoffs.
To avoid wasting another year with a championship-caliber roster, Mike Tomlin and Co. should find a way to sign Newton under the cap. That would easily make him the best Plan B at quarterback in the NFL.
Prediction: Signs with Steelers on one-year, $10-million deal with extra $7 million in incentives
Jadeveon Clowney
Clowney was widely expected to be one of the first big-name players to sign in free agency, but he's struggled to find a suitor after producing a career-low three sacks last season. Clowney's market hasn't improved much even after he reportedly lowered his desired number from $20 million per year to around $17 million or $18 million.
The star pass-rusher's best options now appear to be a return to the Seattle Seahawks or a deal with the Titans. Both teams have made it known they're interested, though neither seems to be in any hurry to secure his signature. Titans general manager Jon Robinson said last week that his team would be a "pretty good fit" for Clowney, but he added that the two parties haven't had any talks recently.
The Cleveland Browns reportedly presented the richest offer to Clowney to no avail. Moreover, teams that have talked to Clowney are growing tired of his stance and are done negotiating after putting forth their offers, according to Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports.
Similar to Newton, Clowney might not sign for a while. It seems unlikely a new team will enter the fray with an offer that rivals the Browns', which is believed to be around $18 million per year.
With training camp restrictions likely to negatively impact players who are joining new teams, Clowney's best option is to run it back in Seattle and then hope to secure the long-term deal he covets as a free agent in 2021.
Prediction: Signs with Seahawks on one-year, $16-million deal
Devonta Freeman
It's possible we don't see Freeman on an NFL field at all in 2020. The veteran running back was released by the Atlanta Falcons in March despite having three years remaining on his contract. He hasn't garnered the interest he expected and is reportedly willing to sit out the season rather than play for less than what he believes he's worth.
That stance already cost Freeman a job with the Seahawks, who pivoted to Carlos Hyde after having their offer to the former rebuffed. Hyde accepted a one-year, $2.75-million deal that could reach $4 million with incentives.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are among the teams most often connected to Freeman. The fit makes sense, as sophomore Ronald Jones is the only established running back on the roster and it's vital that Brady has more experienced backfield partners protecting him. However, Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said Freeman is "asking for a lot of money and we don't have a lot of money."
Still, it's hard to see a better landing spot for Freeman. The Chicago Bears and Buffalo Bills could use more depth but aren't as desperate to win this year and can risk going into the season with fewer proven options.
The Bucs will likely wait until it's clear they're the only realistic option for Freeman. He's struggled to stay healthy of late, but Freeman knows how to work with a veteran quarterback after playing with Matt Ryan, and was a solid pass-protector and above-average receiver in Atlanta.
Prediction: Signs with Buccaneers on two-year, $9-million deal
Logan Ryan
Ryan put together one of the most productive seasons of his career in 2019 with the Titans. The slot cornerback racked up four interceptions, four forced fumbles, and a career-high 4.5 sacks to help fuel the club's surprisingly successful campaign.
Those numbers during a contract year usually result in a player getting whatever they demand on the open market. However, Ryan's options are limited by the fact that he reportedly wishes to continue making around $10 million per season. Teams don't appear comfortable paying that much to a slot corner who's nearly 30 and allowed five touchdown passes last season.
Ryan shot down a return to Tennessee but said he's open to every other team. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins appear to lead the pack, and both have a need that Ryan could immediately fill. The AFC East clubs aren't short on cap space - Jets have $24.7 million, Dolphins have $20.7 million - so it shouldn't be difficult to come close to the veteran's demands.
However, it was previously reported that New York was confident Ryan would sign by now. Meanwhile, Miami already spent big on Byron Jones, used a first-round pick on Noah Igbinoghene, and has Xavien Howard on a huge deal.
Ryan has history with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, who was the Patriots safeties coach during the corner's stint in New England. That could tip the balance in Miami's favor, especially with teams operating under the assumption that young players such as Igbinoghene will be slow to get up to speed with limited training camps.
Flores is clearly adopting the Patriots' philosophy of investing in pass coverage over the pass rush, so he may go all-in and create the NFL's premier cornerback trio.
Prediction: Signs with Dolphins on two-year, $16-million deal
Jason Peters
Despite turning 38 years old in January, Peters has no interest in retirement. The veteran said that "if Tom Brady can play into his 40s," so can he, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL Network. Peters even released a workout video to show teams that he still possesses rare athleticism.
Peters is more than capable of helping a team win in 2020. Though he's declined as a run-blocker, he remains an elite pass-protector. Peters had PFF's fourth-best pass-blocking grade after allowing just 21 total pressures and three sacks in 562 snaps for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2019. There aren't many better options for clubs in a need of a short-term fix at left tackle.
The Eagles appear confident in Andre Dillard, but Peters' return is still possible. The veteran has spent the last 11 seasons in Philadelphia, and though he's spoken to the team, neither is in a rush to make a decision, according to Garafolo.
The Chargers and Redskins - who traded away Russell Okung and Trent Williams, respectively - remain options and have poor in-house replacements. Los Angeles brought in Bryan Bulaga this offseason to improve a long-suffering offensive line. Peters' addition would allow the former Green Bay Packers standout to remain at right tackle and push the ineffective Sam Tevi to the bench.
Prediction: Signs with Chargers on two-year, $15-million deal
Everson Griffen
Griffen opted out of his contract with the Minnesota Vikings in February, and there has been little chatter about his future. The 32-year-old is likely looking at his last major payday and is apparently waiting to make in-person visits to teams before making his decision.
The veteran is no longer capable of being the focal point of a pass rush, though he did rack up eight sacks in 2019 and is just three seasons removed from a 13-sack campaign.
There are a handful of teams in contention for Griffen. The Cardinals could use a running mate for Chandler Jones, the Seahawks and Browns could pivot to Griffen if Clowney signs elsewhere, the Dallas Cowboys need a replacement for Robert Quinn, and a reunion with the Vikings is still possible.
Arizona has been among those to show the most interest in the four-time Pro Bowler, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, though it has only $8.97 million in cap room.
The Cardinals have been aggressive this offseason, landing star wideout DeAndre Hopkins in a blockbuster trade and adding Jordan Phillips and rookie Isaiah Simmons to their defense. Many are tipping Kliff Kingsbury's team as a surprise playoff contender in anticipation of a breakout year from Kyler Murray, and adding Griffen could be the key to fulfilling that hype.
Prediction: Signs with Cardinals on three-year, $33-million deal
(Cap numbers courtesy: Over The Cap)