Michigan State football vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction

Free Press sports writer Chris Solari breaks down Saturday's Big Ten East showdown between Michigan State and Ohio State:

Fast facts

Matchup: No. 23 Michigan State (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten) at No. 5 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0).

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. Saturday, Ohio Stadium; Columbus, Ohio.

TV/radio: ABC, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Buckeyes by 20.

[ What's at stake in MSU vs. Ohio State? 'It's a playoff game' ]

Injury report

MSU

Out: LS Ryan Armour (left leg, season), LT Kevin Jarvis (right knee), DE Zach Slade (leg, season), WR Jalen Nailor (right foot), LT Cole Chewins (back), WR Tre’Von Morgan (right knee), LB/DE Brandon Randle (NCAA transfer portal), RB Connor Heyward (NCAA transfer portal). Questionable: OG/C Blake Bueter (left leg), CB Josh Butler (undisclosed), LT A.J. Arcuri (right ankle), OL Mustafa Khaleefah (undisclosed), CB Shakur Brown (undisclosed), WR Cam Chambers (undisclosed), DE Brent Mossburg (undisclosed), DE Michael Fletcher (right foot). Probable: TE Matt Dotson (undisclosed), DE Jack Camper (right foot).

Ohio State

Out: TE Cormontae Hamilton (undisclosed), WR C.J. Saunders (knee), DT Taron Vincent (arm), WR Kamryn Babb (knee). Questionable: OL Branden Brown (undisclosed), LB Teradja Mitchell (undisclosed), DE Tyreke Smith (undisclosed), DL Noah Donald (undisclosed), S Ronnie Hickman (undisclosed.).

Scouting report

• When MSU has the ball: The Spartans’ offense came to the rescue in Saturday’s 40-31 comeback against Indiana. Brian Lewerke drove 74 yards in two plays, a 44-yard on-the-run strike to fellow senior Darrell Stewart and a 30-yard QB run that set up Matt Coghlin’s go-ahead field goal with 5 seconds left. The Spartans’ tempo offense has shown improvement from a year ago, averaging 413.6 yards and 31.4 points per game. Stewart continues to be a major weapon, leading the Big Ten with 35 catches and 556 yards in five games, and his 111.3 yards per game ranks second. He caught five passes for 117 yards and two TDs against the Hoosiers. Redshirt freshman RB Elijah Collins leads the Spartans at 82.6 yards per game, but he has not reached 100 since his 192-yard breakout game against Western Michigan. The health of Bueter compounds an already thinned offensive line, which has three true freshmen (Devontae Dobbs, J.D. Duplain, Nick Samac) as second-stringers. They will be tested by an OSU defensive line that is tied for No. 2 in the nation in total defense (223.8 yards per game) and with 24 sacks. The Buckeyes also are second nationally against the pass, allowing just 138.8 yards, and 15th against the run at 85.0 yards per game. CB Jeffrey Okudah has three interceptions in the past two games for a unit that is fourth in scoring defense (8.6 points).

More:Why MSU measures itself against Ohio State, not Michigan

• When Ohio State has the ball: MSU struggled against Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr., who threw for 286 yards. The secondary struggled with the Hoosiers’ talented receivers, with 5-foot-10 CB Josiah Scott going against the 6-4 Donavan Hale and CB Josh Butler and others failing to contain speedy Whop Philyor. Those two had 21 catches, 241 yards and all three of Penix’s TDs. MSU had six QB hits on Penix, but just one sack. However, the defense continued to stifle the run game, with seven tackles for a loss in allowing Indiana just 70 yards on 28 attempts (2.5 per carry). The Spartans still rank No. 4 nationally against the run (55.8 yards allowed per game) and seventh in total defense (253.8), while they are 15th in scoring defense (15.0 points a game). They face one of the nation’s most prolific offenses – Ohio State is third in points scored (52.4), eighth in total offense (535.5 yards) and seventh in rushing (281.6 yards). Three players – RBs J.K. Dobbins (130.8 yards per game) and Master Teague III (65.2) and QB Justin Fields (44.4) have combined for 15 rushing TDs. The Buckeyes also lead the nation with 146 first downs, 29.6 per game. Fields’ top targets are K.J. Hill (20 catches, four TDs, 218 yards), Chris Olave (16 catches, four TDs, 258 yards) and Binjimen Victor (15 catches, 269 yards, two TDs). The Buckeyes’ QBs have thrown 19 TDs and no interceptions this season.

More:At every turn, MSU confronted with transfer portal

Know the foe

• Fields day: Fields, a sophomore Georgia transfer, has 16 TD passes with no interceptions, is completing nearly 70% of his passes (81 of 116) for 1,092 yards without an interception. He has run for 222 yards and seven more scores. He is averaging just 218.4 passing yards, but that is in large part because OSU has been able to play his backups in their five blowout wins by an average of 43.8 points a game.

More:La'Darius Jefferson takes over Connor Heyward's key role at RB

• Young monster:MSU’s offensive line will have its hands full trying to block Chase Young, whose eight sacks rank second both nationally and in the Big Ten. The 6-5, 265-pound junior is quick off the edge, and MSU coach Mark Dantonio said “I really haven't thought of him in the human context,” before comparing him to former MSU defensive end Robaire Smith. Young has forced three fumbles and 17 tackles.

• New boss: Ohio State coach Ryan Day went 4-0 last season when Urban Meyer was suspended, and he has won his first five games in his debut season. Day was Meyer’s offensive coordinator for two seasons after arriving from the NFL, and his offense totaled 90 TD passes in 2017 and ’18 en route to back-to-back Big Ten championships. The 2018 Buckeyes set Big Ten records with 535.6 total yards per game, 5,100 passing yards, 373.0 yards passing yards per game, 51 TD passes, 396 completions and 1,131 total plays.

Two cents

• Shoe fits: The Spartans have won two of their last three games at Ohio Stadium, 10-7 in 2011 and 17-14 in 2015. They also defeated Urban Meyer’s team in the 2013 Big Ten championship game, 34-24, to advance to the Rose Bowl. However, the last time this group was there in 2017, the Buckeyes demolished MSU, 48-3. The Spartans have won nine times in 24 all-time meetings in Columbus, but they are 3-7 there since 1991.

• Going home: There are 28 players from Ohio on MSU’s roster this season, including starting LB Joe Bachie, CB Josiah Scott, S Xavier Henderson, S David Dowell, LG Luke Campbell, RG Matt Carrick, TE Matt Dotson, P Jake Hartbarger, LS Jude Pedrozo and K Matt Coghlin. None of them played the last time the Spartans beat the Buckeyes in 2015 at Ohio Stadium.

Prediction

Ohio State 24, MSU 13: Saturday night will be a test of which offense can crack the stingy defense on the other side. The Buckeyes’ weapons are more talented and deeper than Indiana’s last week, but the Spartans’ defense contains them until the fourth quarter again. MSU’s offense, though, struggles with pressure as OSU makes Brian Lewerke’s night a long one.

Contact Chris Solari at csolari@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @chrissolari. Read more on the Michigan State Spartans and sign up for our Spartans newsletter.