Vaccine effectiveness figures show roadmap is 'achievable', says Matt Hancock

We're going to leave it there for today, but we'll be back in the morning with everything you need to know in advance of Wednesday Budget, as officials hunt for the mystery sixth Brazilian variant case.

We asked you...

Matt Hancock this evening said ministers had no reason to delay the roadmap for reopening because the Brazilian variant had been discovered in the UK.

We asked you in our daily poll whether you thought that was true.

• 83 per cent of you were optimistic, and said the rapid response of NHS Test and Trace would keep us on track for freedom on June 21.
• But 17 per cent thought that whether it is these cases or others in future, variants are likely to slow the roadmap and stand between Britain and life after lockdown.

See you in the morning.

Matt Hancock says the "only reason we can set out as strong a roadmap as we have it because of the vaccine rollout".

"We know that without the vaccine there is no way to keep people safe...the data we have published today shows that the roadmap is achievable because it shows that we will be able to break the link from cases, through to hospitalisations to deaths."

Until now, that link has been "unbreakable", he says.

Matt Hancock says the Government is working with other countries to work out a system for vaccine certification for Britons travelling to another country.

He says that, in a sense, a passport system is already in place because people need a test to travel.

"It's something that we are working with them and others on, and it matters that we get this right for international travel," he says.

Prof Van-Tam says a second dose will "mature" a patient's immune response and give a longer lasting protection from coronavirus.

The Government is "without apology" delaying the second dose to protect more people, but it is "absolutely critical" that people still have it.

Macer Hall from the Daily Express asks whether wearing two masks is more effective than wearing one.

Dr Susan Hopkins says there should ideally be two or three layers in a mask. An advisory group on face masks is considering evidence on two masks and there is an "ongoing discussion" about it. 

One mask with two layers is effective, she says.

Matt Hancock is asked whether ministers are concerned about people coming forward for a second dose in Israel.

He replies that he has heard that people are more reticent to take their second dose, and stresses that it is very important for people to have their second vaccine when they are invited for it.

"Coming forward for the second jab is a very very important part of the programme...the data show that for the Pfizer jab you get yet further protection from the second dose," he says.

Prof Van-Tam says that whether people from the UK will be allowed to go on holiday to other countries, for instance in Europe, will depend on what they say about people entering their countries.

He cannot "level with" the public about it because no one knows what policies in other countries will be, he says.

A Guardian journalist points out that the Brazilian variant has been found in lots of countries that are not on the Government's red list of countries that require hotel quarantine. Doesn't that mean the borders are "incredibly porous," she says?

Mr Hancock says the proportion of cases that are variants of concern in countries like Germany are "exceptionally low," but in Brazil and South Africa the variants are dominant.

But home quarantine is required for everyone entering the UK with multiple tests, he says, so any variants from other countries should be caught too.

On the latest vaccine effectiveness data, Mr Hancock says there has been "good news" and there are some signs that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is even more effective than the Pfizer jab.

Getting either is "the right thing to do and it can save your life," he says.

An ITV journalist asks Mr Hancock why the Government is opening schools and unlocking the economy if the best way to stop the virus spreading is for people to stay at home.

Mr Hancock says ministers "do not think there is any need" to change the schools reopening plan because of the new variant. That is because five of the six people who have been identified with the Brazilian variant have followed the quarantine rules.

"Our goal is to contain the transmission to just these six people," he says.

Laura Kuenssberg asks whether the delay in the Government implementing the hotel quarantine policy put the public at risk.

Mr Hancock says no, adding that there were already measures in place to stop the virus spreading from people coming from abroad.

The five people the Government knows about did follow the rules, and there is no evidence that the sixth person did not, he says.

Around a third of all positive tests are now sequenced to find any more cases of new variants, he adds. 

Matt Hancock is asked why some people who are in lower categories have been vaccinated out of the order that has been set out by the JCVI.

Mr Hancock says that the Government is keeping to its list of priorities, but that there are some cases where people from lower categories have been jabbed where there is a surplus of supplies that need to be used up before they go off.

When that happens, there is a "reserve list," he says.

Prof Van-Tam says this data offers the "first glimpses" of a "very different world in the next few months".

"We have to be patient, we have to push on with the vaccine programme," he says, adding that people must have both doses when offered.

Jonathan Van-Tam, the Deputy Chief Medical officer, says Public Health England has just published a new report summarising vaccine effectiveness in the UK. 

He thanks officials at PHE and the other devolved bodies for their work on the report.

The data that will follow refer to effectiveness after one dose of a vaccine, he says.

Effectiveness

Effectiveness against in infections is approximately 60 per cent after 28-34 days (defined as people ill with symptoms who then test positive). In the Pfizer vaccine, that effect is sustained beyond 34 days, and in the Astrazeneca jab it could be even higher after that, he says.

Hospitalisations

Prof Van-Tam says the effect on hospitalisations of one dose of either jab is a reduction of 80 per cent.

Deaths

Deaths take longer to measure, so there is only data for the Pfizer vaccine, he says. For those who have had that jab, there is a reduction of 85 per cent.

Dr Susan Hopkins of Public Health England says the Government is closely tracking the Brazilian variant because it bears some similarity to other variants that have seen a reduced impact from antibodies.

Scientists do not yet know whether the vaccine is effective against the Brazilian variant but tests are being conducted, she says.

Two of the three English cases are in the same household, and those people have been isolating, she says.

But the Government is also implementing surge testing in South Gloucestershire, where they live, to identify any other people who have been in contact with them.

Officials are also testing people on the same flight - and more than 90 per cent have already been contacted, she says.

The third person in England has not been traced because they did not fill out the contact form with their test, she says. 

Turning to the latest variant of concern, Mr Hancock says six people with the so-called "Brazilian variant" of the virus has been identified in six people.

The Government has traced five of the six but cannot contact the sixth because they did not leave contact details, he says.

Mr Hancock urges anyone who took a test on the 12th or 13th Feb and did not leave details to call 119.

"For now, tackling this disease is down to every single one of us," he says.

He urges the public to stay at home, use the hands/face/space rules, keep social distancing and let fresh air into rooms.

"As surely as Spring follows Winter, there will be brighter days," he says.

Mr Hancock says he is able to formally announce that the over-60s category will now be invited to take the jab.

He adds that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, will announce more than a billion pounds for vaccine development in Wednesday's Budget.

 

Mr Hancock adds that the latest data shows that just one jab drastically reduces the likelihood of hospitalisation in an individual patient.

The effect of the Astrazeneca vaccine is even stronger than that of the Pfizer jab, he says.

These results have reduced the number of over-80s going into intensive care to single figures.

The Health Secretary says the Government is going to publish new data showing the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Case numbers are still falling, he says, but the rate of decline has slowed.

The rate of hospitalisations is falling even further - especially among those who were first to receive the jab. That shows the vaccine is working, he says.

An even stronger sign that it is working is in the deaths data. The data shows that deaths are falling fastest among the over-80s, he says.

That has produced a "vaccine gap" in the data, showing the effectiveness of jabs.

"This shows that in the real world, across the UK, right now, the vaccine is helping to protect the NHS and save lives," he says.

Matt Hancock begins today's briefing with an update on the latest coronavirus data.

He says he is "delighted" that 20,275,451 have been vaccinated, and the Government has depended on a "huge number of people" for their "insight and hard work".

He thanks the regulator, the MHRA, who have been "flexible, so that it is safety, not bureaucracy" that drives vaccine approvals, he says.

The Health Secretary also thanks the vaccine taskforce, which he said combined academic expertise and entrepreneurialism to secure jabs for the UK.

The Health Secretary will be speaking live from Downing Street at 5pm.

You can watch the feed at the top of this blog.

The Liberal Democrats have joined the Labour Party and the International Development Committee chair, Sarah Champion, in criticising the Foreign Office's decision to cut aid to Yemen.

Layla Moran, the party's spokeswoman for Foreign Affairs and International Development, said: "It is appalling and heartless that the Government has cut UK aid to conflict-ridden Yemen.

"Yemen is facing the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world. Children are being denied an education due to the conflict. The coronavirus pandemic is spreading in the country.

"UK Aid has helped millions and stands as a testament to the best of British values. Now is not the time to reduce our commitment to support the world's most vulnerable."

David Cameron has criticised decisions on the organisation of Whitehall taken by his successors Theresa May and Boris Johnson.

Mr Cameron told the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy it was a "bad mistake" to combine the roles of National Security Adviser and Cabinet Secretary, as Mrs May did in Mark Sedwill.

"I think it was for instance a very bad mistake combining cabinet secretary and national security adviser - they are two jobs," he told the committee.

"For one person, even if you were a cross of Einstein, Wittgenstein and Mother Teresa, you couldn't possibly do both jobs and I think that temporarily weakened the National Security Council."

He also criticised Mr Johnson's decision to combine the Foreign Office and International Development Department under Dominic Raab.

My colleague Lucy Fisher has been listening in:

DUP Agriculture Minister Gordon Lyons has defended his decision to halt work on permanent inspection checking facilities at Northern Ireland ports. Mr Lyons appeared before the Assembly on Monday afternoon to face an urgent oral question on his controversial decision on Friday.

He faced robust questioning from rival MLAs who accused him of stunt politics.

Mr Lyons replied: "The steps that I have taken are as a result of the practical barriers and the legal uncertainties that currently exist.

"I think the steps that I've taken have been entirely reasonable and I would ask people whether their opposition to what I have done is based on common sense and practicality or is it just based on opposition to anything that they don't like in relation to Brexit and the protocol."

Halving aid to Yemen means the UK is "turning its back on the world's worst humanitarian crisis", the chair of the international development committee has said. 

Labour MP Sarah Champion has joined senior Tories such as Jeremy Hunt and Andrew Mitchell in attacking the decision, confirmed moments ago, that funding will be cut from £160m to £87m. 

She said: "The drastic aid cut for Yemen announced today is utterly appalling. It sends a message that the UK is turning its back on the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. This is completely at odds with the Government’s assertions that the UK should be a global leader, especially in the year with the G7 and COP presidencies.

"It is an astonishing move, particularly as the UK has the power – as penholder within the UN Security Council for Yemen – to lead the way to create a political solution to the conflict."

She added: "Abandoning the most vulnerable people in their time of greatest need hardly fits with the Government’s aim of the UK being a problem solving and burden sharing nation.”

Gavin Williamson has hinted that "major changes" could be made to the education system as part of longer-term reform to learning. 

During education questions, Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan highlighted a recent report by think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs, which made a series of recommendations "that would help resolve critical issues facing our schools".

One was reducing the length of the summer holidays, which currently "prove counterproductive for pupils", he said. 

The Education Secretary responded: "We've asked Sir Kevan Collins to look across a whole and broad range of different ways of giving children a boost in terms of being able to not just catch up in terms of any learning that they've lost, but actually more fundamentally make major changes to actually how we drive educational attainment over a generation and more.

"And of course all of this is something that Sir Kevan will be looking at."

The decision to halve aid to Yemen this year is "inexplicable", Jeremy Hunt has said. 

Responding to confirmation that funding this year will be "at least £87m" compared with £160m last year, the former foreign secretary highlighted the UN's warning "only last week, that Yemen faces the worst famine the world has seen for decades. In their words it is ‘falling off a cliff’."  

He added: "This feels like an inevitable consequence of the flawed decision to step away from the 0.7 per cent [overseas aid] commitment. It is unlikely to be noticed with so much else on but will cost lives and discourage other countries from playing their part.

"But abandoning a forgotten country and people is inconsistent with our values, weakens our moral authority and reduces our influence. We should be increasing the scale of our support in the face of such suffering; to cut it at this moment of extreme peril is incomprehensible."

The European Commission has stressed that the UK does have "obligations under the Northern Ireland protocol" to ensure the permanent inspection posts are in place by the middle of this year. 

Earlier today, No 10 insisted the decision to halt work building them was "a matter for the Northern Ireland Executive" (see 1:07pm).

However this afternoon, European Commission spokesman Daniel Ferrie said: "We have received reassurances that these announcements last week are not going to affect the current work of the temporary border control posts in Northern Ireland, so the relevant checks and controls are continuing to take place as usual.

"We expect the same commitment when it comes to the UK Government's obligations under the protocol regarding the permanent facilities that need to be put in place... by the middle of 2021, in line with the protocol and also in line with the Joint Committee decisions from last December."

Northern Ireland's justice minister Naomi Long has said First Minister Arlene Foster's meeting with representatives of loyalist paramilitaries is "a matter of concern". 

Mrs Foster led a DUP delegation last week to meet with the Loyalist Communities Council to discuss tensions around the Northern Ireland Protocol. 

Ms Long, who is also the Alliance Party's leader, warned that it "sends out a worrying message". 

Speaking during questions in the Stormont Assembly, she said: "It is a matter for me as justice minister when all ministers in the Executive have signed up to tackling the paramilitarism programme.

"That programme requires us all to ensure that where we wish to engage with at-risk communities, where we wish to hear the voices of those who may be vulnerable to paramilitary influence, that we do so through the appropriate legal mechanisms, that we don't give any credence or validity to members of paramilitary organisations, irrespective of the community from which they emerge.

"I do believe that by giving a platform to people who are still in proscribed organisations or who claim to be, I think that is a matter of concern and sends out a worrying message to those in many parts of our community who still live under the coercive control of those same paramilitary organisations."

Rishi Sunak had only been Chancellor for a few weeks before giving his first Budget - delivered in the foothills of what became the biggest crisis of our generation. 

Ahead of his next Budget on Wednesday, he looks back at that time, and the work he has done since. 

It's put out by his team so it glosses over some of the Government's failings of the last year - but it's worth a watch if only to remind yourself of those innocent times when MPs squeezed in next to each other on the green benches, and before we had heard the names Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance. 

The Government must reserve the right to "hit the brakes" on students returning to campuses in coming weeks - and other stages in the roadmap - a leading scientist has said.

Dr Mike Tildesley, reader in mathematics at the University of Warwick and member of the SPI-M advisory group, said there needs to be an "opportunity to respond" if there is high prevalence of the virus.

"We would always emphasise the need to be cautious with any form of reopening so the return of some students over the next month, I think really needs to be done in terms of need for students to be back," he said.

"It's really important that we have the opportunity to respond. So if we do see that there is a rise in incidence as reopening happens - whether this be students returning to campuses or any other form of reopening - we need to be prepared to hit the brakes, as it were.

"I think a cautious approach has to be the way forward at this point in time - this is not just universities, this is generally."

The liberal ideal of a welcoming Britain with its doors open to the rest of the world now belongs to ancient history, writes Ross Clark.

The ‘enlightened’ course of action is now to erect barriers, incarcerate arrivals and set the dogs loose if an overseas traveller goes missing. It was one of the liberal-Left pin-ups, Jacinda Ardern, who pioneered this policy. 

Now Britain is going full-New Zealand. Yet we are doing so at a time when the experience of that country is beginning to show the futility of trying to fight Covid with a closed-borders policy.Auckland, the largest city and commercial centre, has just entered a severe, seven day lockdown after a single person tested positive for the disease.

So much for life being back to ‘normal’ in New Zealand. How will New Zealand – and how will Britain – ever reopen? Covid-19 isn’t going to go away. All countries are either going to have to accept that – or otherwise barricade themselves against the outside world forever after.

Read his column in full here.

Just over 170,000 vaccinations were given in England yesterday, official figures show, as the the daily rate dips yet again. 

A total of 17,812,739 Covid-19 vaccinations took place in England between December 8 and February 28, according to provisional NHS England data, including first and second doses, which is a rise of 170,947 on the previous day's figures.

Of this number, 17,212,804 were the first dose of a vaccine, a rise of 161,559 on the previous day, while 599,935 were a second dose, an increase of 9,388.

London continues to lag the rest of the country, with a total of 2,140,556 jabs were given to people in the capital since the programme launched, including 2,060,064 first doses and 80,492 second doses.

This compares with 3,353,762 first doses and 95,336 second doses given to people in the Midlands, a total of 3,449,098.

A leading care body has called on the Chancellor to commit to tackling the "trauma and fragility" of the social care sector in this week's Budget.

Staff are "beyond exhausted" and the sector "desperately needs some hope and commitment to the Prime Minister's promise to tackle the social care crisis", Care England said, as it calls for a £7 billion cash injection into the adult social care sector, as recommended by cross-party MPs.

Its letter to Rishi Sunak reads: "The trauma and fragility of the sector cannot be overstated. Both providers and the adult social care workforce need to be prioritised as they remain at the frontline in combating Covid-19.

"The costs associated with the pandemic are by no means going to subside in the next few months, thus plans and funds that reach the frontline need to be put in place to account for the sector's continuation and to cope with future crises."

Chief executive Professor Martin Green said: "The sector is tired of empty promises, white papers and consultations - 13 of these in the last 17 years - that always end up in the long grass. It is now or never; we need a 1948 moment with a commitment in the budget that the Prime Minister will tackle the social care crisis."

Politicians love to talk about appealing to white van man, but in the North the pickup is the new king, argues former  minister and NRG frontman Jake Berry in a column for today's Telegraph.

In the same way that ‘Mondeo man’ in the South propelled Tony Blair to three election victories in the 90s, it is the ‘Truck man’ of the North that the Chancellor must appeal to at this budget if the Government is to hold the Red Wall at the next General Election. If Truck man, or Truck woman for that matter, has a pledge card for the Budget, keeping the cost of living low will be at the top.  To do this we must retain the weekly twenty-pound universal credit top-up. As an in-work benefit, it has been a huge help for families across the North during Covid, but it is now cash on which household budgets rely.  Now is not the time for the Chancellor to pull the rug on the Covid Support package. 

Read his column in full here.

A further 127 people who tested positive for coronavirus have died, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 83,250

Patients were aged between 46 and 99 years old. All except one, aged 58 years old, had known underlying health conditions. The date of death ranges from 9 December 2020 to 28 February 2021 with the majority being on or after 24 February. 

The Midlands was the worst-affected region, with 40 deaths registered, followed by the North East & Yorkshire, with 31, and the South East with 21. 

There were 14 deaths registered in the East of England, 12 in the North West, eight in London and just one in the South West.

The identification of six cases of the Brazilian P1 variant in the UK show border controls must be "tightened", Jeremy Hunt has said. 

The former health secretary told BBC Radio 4's The World at One programme officials must "look at what has gone wrong". 

He added: "It shows that it needs to be tightened up still further because if we are going to protect the road map out of lockdown then the name of the game is going to be stop new variants coming in, some of which may end up being immune to the new vaccines."

The UK also needed "a much, much more thorough" test and trace system working alongside genome sequencing, but "you can only do that if you bring the cases right down."

But the health and social care committee chairman noted that "the fact that we are going to this trouble over one person who has gone missing says to me that we are in much better shape than we were three months ago, six months ago".

The Brazilian variant that has emerged in the UK could slow the impact of the vaccine rollout in the UK, an Imperial College professor has suggested this morning.

A mystery 'patient X' is being sought, after Public Health England (PHE) admitted it has no idea who one of the six individuals infected with the "variant of concern"  is, nor where the person was tested. 

Celebrating the 20m vaccinations milestone, which was passed at the weekend, Nadhim Zahawi dodged questions about whether the new variant would affect schools reopening in South Gloucestershire. 

The Prime Minister has warned that his roadmap will be contingent on no "variants of concern" emerging - however today he reaffirmed his commitment to the "one-way" path out of lockdown.

So does this latest news affect our route to freedom? Is it a taste of things to come? Or should we carry on regardless? Have your say in the poll below. 

Mark Drakeford has said he would take the "opposite" approach to international travel to the one taken by the UK Government.

Wales' First Minister told a press conference in Cardiff that he "remained concerned" about international travel because of new variants. 

"I would do it in the opposite way to the UK Government, this is the case I've tried to make to them," Mr Drakeford said.

"The UK Government's approach is that all international travel is OK apart from 33 countries that are on a red list.

"I would do it the opposite. I would say we shouldn't be having international travel but here is a list of countries where we are confident that things are under control, where there are testing regimes, where we will be confident that people returning from there would not be posing a threat to us."

School staff are not at a higher risk of Covid-19 infection than other working-age adults in their local communities, new figures suggest.

Around 14.99 per cent of school staff tested positive for coronavirus antibodies in December, which indicate a past infection, lower than the estimate of 18.22 per cent for working-age adults, according to a small study of schools.

The survey from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also suggests the proportion of staff who tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies was 14.61 per cent of primary staff, compared with 15.72 per cent of secondary staff.

Dr Shamez Ladhani, a PHE consultant epidemiologist and the study's chief investigator, said the data was "extremely reassuring" ahead of schools reopening next week. 

"Where we are now is in a really amazing place for reopening schools the right way," Dr Ladhani said.

"The country is still in lockdown, the infection rates are falling very, very rapidly, community infection and transmissions are going to be very low when they go back to school."

Labour has joined the chorus of voices warning Rishi Sunak against immediately raising taxes in his Budget on Wednesday.

Shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds said now is "not the time" for tax rises, but signalled that she could support an increase in corporation tax in the future. 

Speaking as part of an event at Bloomberg today, Ms Dodds claimed the reduction in corporation tax over the last decade "hasn't boosted investment in the UK - we have not seen it growing actually in the speed that it has in many other countries".

However she added: "Should the Chancellor be focused on particularly imposing additional tax rises right now? Well, we don't believe that he should be focused on that. He really should be focused on securing the recovery.

"Now is not the time for immediate tax rises - it is the time for a Chancellor focused on jobs and securing our recovery."

UK officials will discuss the European Union's plans for a coronavirus passport with counterparts in Brussels, No 10 has suggested.

The European Commission has set out plans for a "digital green pass" which would record vaccination status and test results, and could unlock travel for work and tourism.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "We have said that we are looking at the issue of vaccine passports. As you can expect, DfT (the Department for Transport) will work and do speak to countries across the world in terms of how they may look to introduce passports."

The spokesman added: "Of course you can expect us to speak to the EU and other countries on how they may implement any similar sorts of policies."

A controversial decision to halt work on permanent inspection posts for Brexit port checks in Northern Ireland was a matter for the devolved administration, No 10 said.

DUP politician Gordon Lyons told the PA news agency on Friday that he has ordered a stop to construction works and recruitment of inspection staff for port facilities, saying "issues around the end of the grace period are just so uncertain and it’s a real nightmare for us".

Today, the Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "That is a matter for the Northern Ireland Executive and we obviously remain in close contact with them. Goods, including food, continue to flow through ports in Northern Ireland with the existing, interim agri-foods facilities in place."

Asked whether halting work would be a breach of the Northern Ireland Protocol, agreed between the UK and the European Union, the spokesman again said it was a matter for the devolved executive.

"We will obviously will continue to liaise and speak to them."

Downing Street has defended the UK's coronavirus border controls following the discovery of a number of cases of a highly transmissible variant from Brazil, saying it is "very, very" rare for people not to fill out the forms correctly. 

Health officials are hunting for a mystery Covid patient thought to be one of the first in the UK to have a Brazilian variant that may spread more rapidly and respond less well to vaccines.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said it was very unusual for people not to fill in their details correctly after taking a coronavirus test, as happened in the case of one of those with the Brazilian variant who is now being sought .

"In a very, very few rare cases individuals do not complete that information, which means that extra action has to be taken to track them down. That is what we are currently doing with regards to the Brazil variant," the spokesman said.

Schools in England will reopen on Monday as planned despite the discovery of a number of cases of a Brazilian variant of the coronavirus, No 10 has said.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "Schools will reopen on March 8 as we set out in the road map."

The spokesman said that included South Gloucestershire where two cases had been found.

"We have deployed the extra surge testing in Gloucestershire to ensure that if there are any other cases in that local area we can identify then and ensure those people are isolated," he said.

It is "too early" to impose "significant" tax increases at this Budget, a former Treasury minister has said, but noted there was plenty of "headroom" to hike corporation tax at a later date. 

Mel Stride, who is also the chairman of the Treasury select committee, told Sky News: "We have got to see the recovery get a head of steam behind it - we don't want the Chancellor doing things that will dampen down animal spirits of the economy. 

"However there is a large hole in the public finances, which means he will have to make tough decisions around tax."

He added: "Some level of increase around corporation tax, which is very low levels compared with international competitors would be step to take when time is right. We have a reasonable amount of headroom... compared to the G7, we are well behind. We could go to 23 per cent and still be the lowest in the G7."

Boris Johnson said he was confident the Budget would "build on everything we have done" to look after businesses and the public throughout the coronavirus crisis.

"I'm not going to anticipate what the Chancellor is going to say on Wednesday," the Prime Minister told reporters.

"But I am absolutely confident that it will be a Budget that builds on everything we have done to look after the businesses and the people of this country throughout the pandemic, but that also paves the way for a strong, jobs-led recovery. That's what our focus is going to be on."

He added: "Everybody has heard what Rishi has been saying about the importance of being frank with ourselves about the state of the public finances. Yes, of course, it's been expensive to look after everybody throughout the pandemic.

"But I have no doubt that if we get it right, as I'm sure we can, we can have a strong, jobs-led recovery, that I think could be much stronger than many of the pessimists have been saying over the last six months or so."

The Government will crack down on 'gangsters' and 'thugs' involved in people smuggling across the Channel, Boris Johnson has said. 

Today The Telegraph reported that plans to raise the maximum sentence for people trafficking from 14 years to life is being considered by Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, amid concern that the current average of three years in prison meted out to smugglers is failing to act as a sufficient deterrent.

Speaking on a visit to Stoke-on-Trent, the Prime Minister said: "It is outrageous that the gangsters, the people smugglers, these thugs, are still putting people's lives at risks in the way that they are, taking money to help people cross the Channel in unseaworthy vessels, risking their lives.

"What we are going to do is to absolutely, ruthlessly stiffen the sentences for anybody who is involved in this kind of people smuggling and trafficking human beings across the Channel. That is why we are working with the French authorities and others to stop the trade."

Wednesday's Budget will include a focus on green infrastructure as the country begins to recover from Covid, a minister has said.

Nadhim Zahawi, the vaccines minister, stressed that the UK would remain a competitive place to do business, despite reports that corporation tax could be hiked.

"This country is eminently investable if you look at our skills base, our knowledge base," he said. "I am very confident that as we come out of this Covid challenge the economy will bounce back, helped by Rishi Sunak’s Budget on Wednesday."

He added: "One thing I know the Chancellor has been telling business, quite rightly, is that our strategy for the recovery from this unprecedented challenge is infrastructure. There will be a big focus on the infrastructure bank - big amounts, billions of pounds of infrastructure spend, especially in green infrastructure." 

Boris Johnson has reaffirmed his commitment to his "one-way roadmap", despite six cases of the new Brazilian variant being identified in the UK. 

The Prime Minister has previously warned that any "variants of concern" could set plans back to open new parts of the economy every five weeks, culminating in the country being virtually back to "normal" by June 21. 

Today he told reporters at a school in Stoke-on-Trent: "What we are doing is embarking now on a journey, a one-way road map to freedom and it is designedly cautious in order to be irreversible.

"That is what we are hoping to achieve. Some people say we should go faster, some people say we should be more hesitant. I think we are going at the right pace, education is the priority, getting all schools open on March 8 is something that we have set our hearts on for a long time and I am confident we will be ready."

Mr Johnson defended the testing regime for schools, insisting "people do understand how to use them and we are very confident that they will be of use in helping to keep the disease under control, keep it going down as we get schools back open".

Boris Johnson said that the Government moved "as fast as we could" with introducing hotel quarantine measures, calling it a "very tough regime".

Labour has accused the Government of putting the country at risk through "incompetence", saying ministers did not move fast or strictly enough. 

But asked if the Government was too slow to implement quarantine hotel measures, the Prime Minister told reporters: "I don't think so, we moved as fast as we could to get that going. It's a very tough regime - you come here, you immediately get transported to a hotel where you are kept for 10 days, 11 days.

"You have to test on day two, you have to test on day eight, and it's designed to stop the spread of new variants while we continue to roll out the vaccination programme.

"We don't have any reason at the present time to think that our vaccines are ineffective against these new variants of all types."

A "massive effort" is underway to prevent new coronavirus variants spreading, after six cases of the Brazil variant P1 were identified in the UK, Boris Johnson has said. 

He told reporters: "If you look at what we have done in the case of the South African variant, a massive effort went in there.

"The same is going on now to contain any spread of the Brazilian variant."

There was "no reason not to think that our vaccines are effective against these variants of concern at the present time" and Public Health England "don't think that there is a threat to the wider public".

Boris Johnson has defended the Government's measures to prevent new variants being imported into the country, despite the detection of cases of the Brazilian strain of coronavirus.

Health officials are hunting for a mystery Covid patient thought to be one of the first in the UK to have a Brazilian variant that may spread more rapidly and respond less well to vaccines.

Six individuals infected with the "variant of concern" have been detected in the UK, officials said on Sunday night.

The Prime Minister told reporters: "We have got one of the toughest border regimes anywhere in the world for stopping people coming in to this country who may have variants of concern."

It's a classic politician faux pas, the sort of thing that appears in satirical sitcom The Thick of It, but that these days most ministers and their teams are savvy enough to avoid. 

Not today though. Boris Johnson has been snapped walking past a display with the words 'gullible' and 'stealthy'. 

Expect this photo to appear on plenty of tomorrow's front pages. 

It wasn't the only unsympathetic snap taken today though. Others include the PM clutching his head during a year four reading lesson... 

... and one that the nation who has endured yet another period with hairdressers closed may sympathise with. 

Rishi Sunak will answer questions from the public and media on Wednesday afternoon following his Budget statement.

Posting on Twitter, the Chancellor said: "This Wednesday, in a Budget first, I will be taking questions from the public and the press straight after my statement."

The event will take place at 5pm on Wednesday.

Labour has written to the Home Secretary demanding "urgent answers" over "the failed quarantine system, which has allowed the Brazilian strain to reach the UK".

Nick Thomas-Symonds, Labour’s shadow home secretary, has called on Priti Patel to take stricter measures following the discovery of the P1 variant, which he blamed on "unforgivable incompetence from the UK Government".

The open letter said: "This failing could have put lives at risk, while also risking undermining the progress and hope generated by the vaccine rollout...

"The fact that there are six cases of this variant of the virus identified in communities is also a major concern. It shows how deeply irresponsible it was for the Government to be so slow to put in place limited hotel quarantine measures."

He added: "Thousands of travellers are entering the country and are not required to enter hotel quarantine. It is now vital to accept that these half-baked measures are not enough and to introduce a comprehensive hotel quarantine system without further delay."

Wales' First Minister has said Boris Johnson should not restart international travel from May, suggesting he "build the walls higher for now" to avoid importing more coronavirus variants to the UK.

Mark Drakeford told a virtual meeting with Welsh businesses and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer: "It worries me hugely to hear the Prime Minister say that he intends to reopen international travel in May of this year.

"Our September in Wales was made far more difficult by the fact that we had a big importation of the virus from France, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey. Every day I will be reading of new outbreaks of people who have gone away, caught the virus and brought it back with them.

"If ever there was a year to be staying at home and to be enjoying all the fantastic things Wales has to offer, this must be it.

"I would build the walls higher for now against the risk that we would bring into this country the variants that could be brewing in any part of the world, and could then put at risk all the careful work we have done to try and keep Wales safe."

The discovery of the Brazilian coronavirus variant in the UK shows the Government has not "secured our borders in the way we should have done", Sir Keir Starmer has claimed. 

Speaking at a virtual meeting with Welsh businesses to mark St David's Day, the Labour leader said: "It demonstrates the slowness of the Government to close off even the major routes, but also the unwillingness to confront the fact that the virus doesn't travel by direct flights.

"We know from last summer that a lot of virus came in from countries where it didn't originate in, but people were coming indirect, and that's the way people travel.

"I still think we haven't secured our borders in the way we should have done, and the sooner that's done the better."

Boris Johnson has made another trip to a school - this time in Stoke-on-Trent - ahead of the mass reopening next Monday, after months of closures to all but children of key workers and those who are vulnerable. 

The Prime Minister has made reopening schools the cornerstone of his roadmap out of lockdown, with students of all ages expected back in the classroom from March 8 across in England. Other nations are staggering the return to school over several weeks. 

The Brazilian variant that has emerged in the UK could slow the impact of the vaccine rollout in the UK, an Imperial College professor has suggested this morning.

A mystery 'patient X' is being sought, after Public Health England (PHE) admitted it has no idea who one of the six individuals infected with the "variant of concern"  is, nor where the person was tested. 

Celebrating the 20m vaccinations milestone, which was passed at the weekend, Nadhim Zahawi dodged questions about whether the new variant would affect schools reopening in South Gloucestershire. 

However the Prime Minister has warned that his roadmap will be contingent on no "variants of concern" emerging. 

So does this latest news affect our route to freedom? Is it a taste of things to come? Or should we carry on regardless? Have your say in the poll below. 

The Government faces a trade-off between controls on travel and "the harms caused by lockdown and restrictions" domestically, an infectious diseases expert has said. 

Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "This is a global problem; our Government can make decisions about what happens in the United Kingdom, but they can't make decisions about what happens globally.

"But they can decide the extent to which we have transmission crossing borders. 

"It's a risk and the Government has to play off the risks of new variants arising somewhere else and then coming here against the harms caused by lockdown and restrictions."

Asked if more travel would risk new variants coming into the country, he said: "It's inevitable, the risk is never zero - places that have high levels of protection across borders are still having incursions of the virus still coming in."

He added: "It is a global problem, and if we remain globally connected, which I think we must, then it is about the rate and the risk of this happening rather than whether it does or not."

The Government has discussed a giveaway for pubs which would see the business rates holiday extended and all alcohol duty frozen.

Treasury officials have been in talks with the hospitality industry to continue business rates relief and a VAT cut for pubs, restaurants and clubs beyond June 21 – when lockdown restrictions could be fully lifted – and potentially into the New Year, sources have told The Telegraph.

Beer and other alcohol duty could also be frozen in the Budget on Wednesday, although a proposed plan to cut tax on alcohol served in pubs while maintaining it on shop-bought drinks will not be included.

Read the full article here. 

The mystery person who has tested positive for the Brazilian variant without being identified "highlights failures in quarantine policy", an epidemiologist has said. 

Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, told BBC Breakfast: "Sage has also advised that, unless we had a comprehensive, managed quarantine policy at our borders, something like this would happen.

"But unfortunately it's something that we've been quite complacent about; now we're just seeing the consequences of that.

"Unfortunately our contact tracing strategy has also failed in this regard, because particular errors were made.

"Were this variant to spread into the community, the real worry is that, as (the) vaccine is rolled out, if this variant is more resistant to vaccines than other variants it could potentially increase in frequency alongside vaccine rollout, if we don't contain the pandemic.

"So it's very important at this point in time to focus our efforts on not just finding cases but reducing transmission because this really increases the risk of virus adaptation and these sort of variants increasing in frequency."

Rishi Sunak's Budget on March 3 will be a "career-defining" moment for the Chancellor, according to The Telegraph's Deputy Political Editor Lucy Fisher.

He has spent billions of pounds of public money to keep businesses and families afloat across three separate lockdowns. But as the vaccine rollout starts to halt the spread of coronavirus and the country slowly creeps towards normality, Mr Sunak is now facing some very difficult choices, she adds.

For the Budget, he has been warned not to raise taxes but, as a Conservative chancellor, also faces pressure to balance the books and restore control over the Government's spending.

In the video below, Lucy Fisher looks into why these decisions are so important for Mr Sunak's career, particularly as he looks ahead to the 2024 General Election.

Britain is "complicit" in the humanitarian crisis in Yemen and cutting aid by as much as 50 per cent will lead to millions of people starving to death, an ex-minister has warned.

Former international development secretary Andrew Mitchell told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme reports that aid to the country could be halved  would mean that " four million Yemenis, mainly children, will continue the slow, agonising and obscene process of starving to death".

He added: "Britain holds the pen on Yemen. We are the senior country at the UN which addresses the issues of Yemen. And it's happening during the British presidency of the UN Security Council, so it's a very serious matter."

Speaking ahead of a donor conference, Mr Mitchell said it would "set a very bad example" if Britain were to cut aid, adding: "Others should step up and Britain has been extremely good at making sure that other countries do fulfil their role.

"Remember that in Yemen we are complicit in what is happening on the ground there because we are part of the Saudi coalition. And so we cannot wash our hands of that." 

Scientists remain "optimistic" that the Covid-19 vaccines will still prevent severe disease when tested against new variants, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has said. 

Professor Adam Finn, from the University of Bristol, urged people to continue coming forward for their jab, which is effective against the dominant variant in the UK. 

He told BBC Breakfast that current evidence suggested that both the vaccine was "less effective at reducing at least mild disease and possibly transmission" of the South African and Brazilian variant, but they were "optimistic that the vaccines will continue to prevent severe disease". 

Manufacturers were looking at what needed for "revising the vaccines if that proves necessary", he said.

"But for the moment the vaccines that we're using are very effective against the strains that are predominantly circulating in the UK and it's important that people understand that that's still the case because we do need people to get immunised as fast as possible to get things under control."

The emergence of the new Brazilian variant in England could mean the country needs to "go backwards" in terms of relaxing restrictions, a Sage scientist has warned.

Boris Johnson and fellow ministers have repeatedly stressed that the roadmap out of lockdown is contingent on no 'variants of concern' spreading, as one of the four tests that must be met. 

Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "It is a variant of concern but we are going to be faced with these in the next six months as we move towards relaxing measures.

"There are going to be challenges on the way, and there is always a risk that we might have to go backwards, and that's what nobody wants to do is to actually open up and then have to close down again.

"So monitoring these variants, keeping an eye on in terms of what they actually do - so sequencing, for example, viruses in hospitals - I think is a crucial step to know whether or not this variant and other variants in the future, what impact they're actually having."

Varying rates of Covid-19 across the country could be a "bigger challenge" for the Government than the new variants, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has said.

Boris Johnson has pledged not to return to a regional tier system as the country reopens. But Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We are already seeing, and when we start opening up we will see more, variation in terms of prevalence around different parts of the country."

The push to reopen should be "guided" by the data, he added. "But the data will show different things in different parts of the country, and so the challenge will be what do you do in terms of opening things up when in one place it says it's a good idea, in other places it says it isn't?

"These are very old problems, these social inequalities and health inequalities have existed for a very long time."

He added: "We'll have to look at those regional variations because they are likely to be just as big as they were last summer and in the autumn."

Keir Starmer has called for it. Tory MPs say they want it too. Academics and Whitehall mandarins have joined them. So too has even the Archbishop of Canterbury. But is the end of the pandemic really likely to bring about a “Beveridge moment” for Britain, Nick Timothy asks.

The parallels are tempting. The Beveridge Report, written as the Second World War raged, was a blueprint for a better future once the country’s collective struggle and sacrifice had finally ended. Identifying “five giants” – idleness, ignorance, disease, squalor and want – the report proposed comprehensive social and economic reforms that would support citizens from “cradle to grave”. But while the public demand is there, the political supply is not. 

Read Nick's column in full here.

Public Health England has made a direct appeal to the person thought to be one of the first in the UK to have a Brazilian variant that may spread more rapidly and respond less well to vaccines.

Dr Susan Hopkins, strategic response director at Public Health England, admitted this was a "belt and braces approach" to ensure the person was tracked down. 

She told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We're making an appeal for anyone out there who was tested on February 12 and 13, probably by a home test or a test that was a drop and collect from a local authority system, and may not have completed the form completely online, or may have thought they did, but still hasn't got their results.

"We are looking at where that test may have been sent from and to, working with the postal services, and the courier services.

"We're also looking to try and track where exactly that sample may have been sent to on a local authority system.

"But I think the public appeal is also a belt and braces approach to ensure that we've gone through every option to find this individual."

March will be a "very big month" for vaccinations, Nadhim Zahawi has said, following the Telegraph's report that over-40s will start being offered the jab from this week.

"We have already been for now over 10 days reserving second doses," he told BBC Breakfast.

"You have seen the numbers tick up of second doses - yesterday I think we were at 800,000 second doses.

"And in March you will see that number increase even more, because obviously those who had the first dose in January will be getting their second dose.

"The NHS have got all the protocols in place to deliver that, as well as of course continuing to do the first dose.

"March will be a very big month for us. We'll probably going to be twice the rate over the next 10 weeks as we have done over the past 10 or 11 weeks."

A minister has said that surge testing in South Gloucestershire is a "precautionary measure", but did not respond directly to questions about whether schools in the area might not reopen next week due to the Brazil variant.

Two of the cases identified in England are in south Gloucestershire, where two more contacts within the same household have tested positive for Covid but await the results of gene sequencing to determine whether they have the new variant.

Nadhim Zahawi, the vaccines minister, told BBC Breakfast: "It's really a precautionary measure because the particular family in question actually followed the rules very, very closely. But it's an important precautionary measure.

"Schools have had 50 million lateral flow tests delivered, they have already done about three million tests, even before we set out the road map to reopening by March 8.

"Teachers will be tested twice a week, even in secondary schools and colleges will be tested twice a week. There's a big infrastructure of testing going into schools."

The Brazilian variant appears to be "breaking through" antibodies built up by previous infection, a leading immunologist has warned. 

Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College, said research on the Brazilian city of Manaus, published in The Lancet, showed that while a high level of protection had been expected because the city had one of the highest levels of antibodies in the world - perhaps more than 70 per cent  - "they're seeing this enormous wave of reinfections."

He added: "If you put two and two together their assumption is that's because the new variant is breaking through those antibodies. But if that hadn't really been proven yet, it looks likely."

Asked if it was impossible to keep the door shut to new variants coming in to the UK, he added: "It's a really, really hard challenge. The border controls, test and trace and containment hasn't been our biggest strength.

"We see these variants popping up variably all over the world, so we're just as liable to suffer from a homegrown one as an imported one.

"So we just need to be really on the case all the time."

The country must not have "the rug whipped" on Covid support in this week's Budget, a senior Conservative MP has said. 

Jake Berry, chairman of the Northern Research Group and former minister, told Sky News it had been a difficult time "for the entire country", saying: "Now is not the time to remove any of the Covid support measures. We are still in the woods."

Mr Berry also pressed the case for an end to business rates, which he called a  "pernicious fixed tax on business" and an "analogue tax in a digital age".

He added: "We have to do something now to support the recovery in our high streets. This is a call to arms, we are saying to Rishi who is himself a northern MP, come out and support our northern high streets."

Tax and spend plans should focus on a long-term plan to boost the economy, he added. 

Labour has attacked the Government over its border controls, with a senior backbencher warning that ministers are "raising expectations" about summer holidays that might not be possible. 

Yvette Cooper, home affairs select committee chair, told Radio 4's Today programme that many travellers would have taken "indirect flights" from Brazil and that the situation highlighted "gaps" in the system.

"We need to look at how these cases have arrived in the country in the first place in order to prevent others doing so," she said. "These cases seem to have arrived a month after the Brazil variant was first identified and we were raising with the Government the need for stronger action."

The Government should be "learning lessons" from countries such as South Korea and New Zealand, that have extra precautions such as testing and transport home from airports, Ms Cooper said.

"There is a concern that the Government is raising expectations about summer holidays that they may not be able to meet," she said.

Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said that the P.1 variant first detected in Brazil was similar in terms of its mutations to the variant first detected in South Africa, raising concerns it could 'escape' the Covid vaccine. 

"In terms of its profile, this P.1 variant is much closer to the South African variant, which we've been dealing with now for several weeks by surge testing, genome sequencing and isolation," he told Sky News.

"This variant is a variant of concern, it is very similar in terms of its mutations to the South African variant. So, it is concerning."

On the two cases identified in South Gloucestershire, Mr Zahawi said one had travelled from Sao Paulo through Zurich to London prior to the hotel quarantine.

"They did take a pre-departure test and filled in their passenger locator form, which is why we are able to deal with them so effectively and work with South Gloucestershire Council," he said.

"There is minimal reason to believe that there may be further spread because they have been isolating correctly.

"But we will be doing asymptomatic testing in South Gloucestershire."

A tax squeeze could hit within months as Rishi Sunak warned that he will "level" with the public about the challenge the economy faces.

The Chancellor is considering Budget plans that could see personal taxes effectively raised as early as April in a bid to recoup some of the £300 billion cost of dealing with the Covid pandemic.

The move would freeze the point at which people start paying the basic rate of income tax – £12,500 – and the £50,000 threshold at which they begin paying the higher 40p rate for at least three years. 

It would raise £6 billion and push 1.6 million people into a higher tax bracket before the election.

Read the full article here.

Authorities working with the postal service to locate a person infected with a concerning variant of coronavirus first found in Brazil, the vaccines minister has said, as he confirmed they did not yet know where the disease had been contracted.

Asked if it is known if the person had travelled to the UK or contracted the virus here, Nadhim Zahawi told BBC Breakfast: "We don't. Part of the reason why we want to locate them quickly is to understand more about them and their movements.

"They could have had a home test kit or a test kit provided to them by their local authority. But they didn't fill in the contact details.

"We are working with the postal service to try and get other data to try and locate them, and this appeal is a belt and braces to try and make sure we locate them as quickly as possible."

Scottish Labour's new leader has said Nicola Sturgeon must resign if she is found to have broken the ministerial code over Alex Salmond.

The First Minister is due to give evidence before the Holyrood committee investigation  the Scottish government's handling of sexual harassment allegations against her former mentor on Wednesday.

Anas Sarwar, who was named Labour's new leader at the weekend, told Radio 4's Today programme that if Ms Sturgeon was found to have misled Parliament over when she had first learned about the allegations being made against Mr Salmond she must resign.

He also said he would "have no choice" but to back the Tories on a vote of no confidence in her deputy John Swinney if he doesn't hand the legal advice to the Holyrood committee. 

"Twice Parliament has voted by a clear majority for the legal advice to be provided to the committee and John Swinney has failed to do it. He has now had the chance this week to do it.

"If he doesn't do it, then it's a deliberate obstruction of the work of the committee by the Scottish Government, following on from what looks like obstruction in previous weeks as well, which is just not acceptable."

Teachers have warned that as many as a third of secondary school students will not take the Covid tests when schools reopen next week. 

Students are meant to take three lateral flow tests at school sites from March 8, after which they will be expected to carry out two a week at home.  However several families have not given consent for tests to be carried out, with headteachers warning of reluctance and confusion about what to do. 

Jo Tunnicliffe from North Kesteven academy in Lincolnshire told Radio 4's Today programme: "Between a quarter and a third will not have the test... it's going to take a little while to get them reassured to take the test.  "They're not particularly pleasant and not particularly easy... there might be some reluctance."

Kevin Sexton, headteacher at Chesterfield High School in Merseyside said he was expecting between 70-75 per cent take-up. "We have a concern that we need to get a much greater turn-out to make sure it's effective," he added, saying it was still unclear "how tests recorded are connected to our own tracking systems".

Mr Sexton warned that just two out of 180 teachers have had the vaccine so far. 

A minister has fended off criticism that the Brazilian variant has surfaced because of porous controls at the border. 

Health officials are hunting for a mystery Covid patient thought to be one of the first in the UK to have a Brazilian variant that may spread more rapidly and respond less well to vaccines.

Six individuals infected with the "variant of concern" have been detected in the UK, officials said on Sunday night.

Labour's shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds said it was proof the "delay in introducing a hotel quarantine was reckless and the continuing refusal to put in place a comprehensive system leaves us exposed to mutations coming from overseas.”

But Nadim Zahawi, the vaccines minister, told Sky News: "The regime for our borders is pretty stringent, there are other countries… for example, Australia who have even more stringent checks but they still have variants."

He added: "If anything, it says our border controls are pretty robust."

The Government has discussed a giveaway for pubs that would see the business rates holiday extended and all alcohol duty frozen.

Treasury officials have been in talks with the hospitality industry to continue business rates relief and a VAT cut for pubs, restaurants and clubs beyond June 21 – when lockdown restrictions could be fully lifted – and potentially into the New Year, sources have told The Telegraph.

It comes as 45 Conservative MPs Northern "Red Wall" seats urged Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, to make "a bold move to reduce business rates" on retail as soon as possible.