Second pandemic year to be deadlier than first, warns WHO – as it happened

Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the 21 June lockdown lifting in England could be in doubt if the variant first detected in India causes increases in cases in elderly people and a rise in people needing hospital care.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think the big question is how many of people who are getting the Indian variant will end up requiring hospitalisation.

“And at the moment the hospitalisation rate doesn’t seem to be increasing yet, although if this becomes much more common we’ll almost certainly see some increase, so I think it’s certainly a concern.

“I think the step four is in doubt in June now, but we really need to see what impact it has on severe disease before we can really be certain.”

PA Media reports that, asked why 21 June is in doubt, he said: “Well, because if the epidemic continues to increase, if the Indian variant of the epidemic continues to increase at the same rate as it has over recent weeks, we’re going to have a huge number of cases by June.

“The issue though is that because it seems to be spreading in unvaccinated younger people at the moment and not yet that much more active in older people maybe we’ll be able to weather it and we’ll still be able to have the step four in June.

“But if that increases cases in elderly and starts to increase hospitalisations, and puts pressure on the NHS again then I think step four would be in doubt.”

It is worth noting that the concern about the variant is not just the impact of it as it stands, but the risk that it could mutate further if allowed to spread unchecked.

Scotland is experiencing a “loss of control” of the pandemic in some areas and it is premature to lift restrictions, an epidemiologist has warned. Dr Deepti Gurdasani said action must be taken to prevent the situation worsening amid concerns about the spread of one of the new Indian variants of the virus north of the border.

Public health experts have warned that a spike in coronavirus infections in Glasgow could include the B.1.617.2 variant.

First minister Nicola Sturgeon has said the situation in Glasgow is being monitored “very closely”, with cases in the city at 70.9 per 100,000 people in the seven days to 10 May, according to latest data.

Lucinda Cameron reports for PA Media Scotland that Moray has the highest rate in Scotland at 98.1 cases per 100,000 and is unlikely to join the rest of the country by dropping down a level under the Scottish government’s five-tier system as restrictions ease on Monday.

Dr Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, said lifting restrictions was premature. She told BBC Good Morning Scotland: “The idea is certainly premature, in fact the government should be considering the opposite.

“In Scotland as a whole we’ve actually seen the number of new cases double in the last week, and while the cases are so low it’s hard to see exponential rises.

She said the arrival of new variants in the UK was not inevitable and was a result of a “failed border policy”, pointing out that areas which have had comprehensive border restrictions such as Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and South East Asia, have not imported many of these concerning variants.

Dr Gurdasani said it is too early to say whether it will lead to an increase in hospital admissions.

Surge testing is under way in areas of north-west England where cases involving the variant first detected in India are on the increase.

The “variant of concern” has been detected in Bolton, Greater Manchester, as well as in Blackburn, Lancashire, and Sefton in Merseyside, which have all seen rates rise rapidly.

Blackburn with Darwen Council initially said on Thursday that it would be offering vaccines to all over-18s from next week following the increase in cases, but later said that, although additional vaccine clinics are being set up, the jab will only be offered to those eligible under current Government guidance.

The area’s director of public health, Dominic Harrison, said on Twitter that the authority had asked the NHS to “surge vaccinate” but the request was refused.

He tweeted: “At the moment the Indian variant is surging in a small number of localgov areas. These areas have a window of opportunity to control the wider spread across the UK by a mixture of community engagement, surge testing and surge vaccination.

“If the government stops areas with high IndianVariant cases from ‘surge vaccinating’ target areas (which will contribute to reduced transmission) – it will reduce our local capacity to control spread.”

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Eleanor Barlow at PA Media reports that in Bolton, the area with the highest rate of cases, with 553 new infections in the seven days to 9 May, mobile testing units have been deployed and door-to-door PCR Covid testing has been offered to 22,000 residents.

A vaccine bus has been set up to increase uptake among those who are eligible and a rapid response team of 100 nurses, public health advisers and environmental health officers has been sent in.

Maeve Reston and Stephen Collinson at CNN today describe the US decisions that mask rules can be relaxed as “a great moment of liberation after a year of intense stress and fear, but also one of trepidation for many”. They write:

The CDC’s decision to change the guidance for fully vaccinated people – which was a surprise even to White House officials informed late Wednesday – marks a huge political success for Biden early in his term and a key turning point on the road to eradicating the pandemic, which is perhaps the most important goal of his presidency. Yet in the coming days, the onus will be on officials to manage and demonstrate the transition between the CDC’s pronouncement and its impact on the lives of millions of Americans.

There were already key points of confusion and conflicting policies that could raise doubt in the minds of some Americans about the science of unmasking at this point.

The equivocation was evident in the dissonant policies even within different government agencies and entities in Washington. The White House told vaccinated staffers that they could take off their masks at work. But when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was asked whether she planned to change the rules and allow members to unmask on the floor of the House of Representatives, the California Democrat replied: “No,” then asked rhetorically: “Are they all vaccinated?”

By Thursday evening, many Americans were out on the town or at bars raising their glasses to celebrate the moment – even though bars have often been cited by scientists as one of the breeding grounds for Covid-19 transmission. Yet the federal transportation mask mandate will stay in place through 13 September, according to the Transportation Security Administration Thursday, even though the science has generally shown that it has been safer to fly on planes than to fraternize at bars.

Read more here: CNN – America’s unmasking brings liberation but also trepidation as huge questions loom

The UK vaccine minister Nadhim Zahawi has been on BBC Breakfast now, where he told viewers that Britain will adapt its vaccine rollout to protect people more quickly in areas where the coronavirus variant first detected in India has emerged.

Nadhim Zahawi said in areas where the new variant has emerged that the government would step up enhanced testing and flex the vaccine rollout by offering it to younger people if they live in multi-generational households.

Reuters quote him as saying “We will flex the vaccine programme to where the clinicians thinks it’s best utilised”

He also said that if necessary the government would not rule out new local and regional restrictions.

Taiwan reported another record rise in domestic Covid-19 cases with 29 new cases, as community transmissions in part of central Taipei spread and the government called for people to be tested.

While Taiwan has reported just 1,291 cases, mostly imported from abroad, out of a population of some 24 million, a recent small rise in domestic infections has spooked Taiwan’s people and the stock market, long used to the island’s relative safety.

Health Minister Chen Shih-chung told a news conference that of the 29 new domestic infections many were connected with an outbreak in Taipei’s Wanhua district, an often gritty area that mixes old temples with trendy shops and hostess bars.

Chen called on people who think they may have had contact with the infected patients or symptoms to come to rapid testing stations the government is setting up around Wanhua.

“The sooner testing happens the sooner the chain of transmission can be broken,” he added.

The coronavirus-related news is quite lively this morning in the UK. As well as urging people to holiday in Wales this year, Welsh first minster Mark Drakeford has used another media appearance to say that officials “decided to hold back” on relaxing some lockdown restrictions in Wales on Monday due to concerns about the Indian variant.

Wales will move to alert level two on Monday with the reopening of indoor hospitality and entertainment venues. PA report that Drakeford was asked if the Indian variant gives him any pause for thought, and he told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme: “Yes, it certainly does. There were 17 cases of the Indian variant in Wales yesterday and over 700 in England. There’s quite a concentration of that in the north-west of England and there’s a lot of traffic between the north-east of Wales and the north-west of England so we were considering a small number of further easements from Monday but have decided to hold back on those.”

Asked if he would be prepared to delay further steps in his road map if advice from Sage - the UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – suggests that it is necessary, Mr Drakeford said: “Yes, we would. We tried our best to follow the scientific advice at every step and if the advice were to be that we should hold back on some further easements because the risks in doing so would be too great then certainly that is what we would do.”

Just to add to the confusion this morning about whether travel from England to Portugal will be allowed from Monday, PA report Portuguese MP Cristovao Norte has said a decision should be taken “immediately”

Norte, who is MP for the Algarve, told BBC Breakfast on Friday he did not know whether Britons will be allowed to visit the country from Monday.

He said: “We are today going to make an urgent inquiry asking the (Portuguese) government whether or not the English travel can come to Portugal next Monday because we are three days ahead from 17th and no one is sure what is going to happen.

Mr Norte added: “Our vaccination process is going steadily and it is important a decision is taken immediately.

“The message is clear, there are no reasons, nor political or scientific reasons to maintain restrictions for travel from the UK to Portugal.”

Asked if the decision could change between now and Monday, he said: “It’s possible but I’m not sure what’s going to happen. Yesterday there was a council of ministers and the minister responsible told the press they didn’t have a definitive decision.”

While people in England seem desperate to get abroad as soon as restrictions lift, the situation is very different for those in India trying to get home to Australia, as Paul Karp and Elias Visontay report for us:

Almost half the Australians due to fly home on the first post-pause repatriation flight out of India have been thrown off the passenger list after they either tested positive to Covid-19 or were deemed close contacts of cases.

Guardian Australia has confirmed that of the 150 vulnerable Australians booked to take the first repatriation flight home from India when the travel ban expires, more than 40 have tested positive to Covid-19. The number who will be unable to fly rises to more than 70 when you factor in the close contacts of those who have tested positive.

The flight is due to leave Delhi after midnight and travel to the Northern Territory where repatriated Australians will quarantine at the Howard Springs facility.

These numbers come from the first Covid test, which is administered 48 hours before flying. There is a second test administered eight hours before flying, meaning it’s possible that more than 70 people will be barred from the flight. Other Australians will not be substituted onto the flight because of the strict processes to prepare for the repatriation flights.

About 10,000 Australian citizens and permanent residents have registered with the government as wanting to return from India. About 1,000 of these people have been deemed vulnerable.

Read more here: Almost half the Australians booked on India repatriation flight barred after Covid tests

The UK vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi, has been on Sky News in the UK, saying England will push ahead with its plan to lift the Covid-19 restrictions gradually, because even though it is worried about the emergence of a variant first detected in India it believes the vaccines are working.

Reuters report that Zahawi said there were concerns about the presence of the Indian variant in some parts of England but that there was no evidence that the B.1.617.2 variant had a more severe impact on people or was able to escape the vaccines.

“The roadmap from Monday remains in place because the vaccines are delivering, vaccines are keeping people out of hospital and away from severe infection,” he said.