Will Delaware County see a 'red' COVID-19 ranking this week?

MUNCIE, Ind. — Will Delaware County go into the red rating for COVID-19 spread when the state updates the chart on Wednesday? 

That's a question that's hard to answer. 

The Indiana State Health Department releases a color-coded map on a weekly basis, placing counties in four categories for spread (blue, yellow, orange and red).

How counties rank is based on two statistics. 

They are cases per 100,000 residents and positivity rate based on testing results. To classify as red, counties must have above 200 cases per 100,000 and a positivity rate of over 15%.

The problem is that each statistic can give a score of up to three, but both scores are combined and divided by two to give the overall score the rank is based on. Only counties with a score of three or above go into the red.

Delaware County thus far has kept an orange ranking, the same one that it's been under for months. As of Nov. 25, the county saw an increase to 519 cases per 100,000, with a positivity rate that was above 9%.

The week before it had 372 cases per 100,000 and a 6.8% positivity rate.

Even though cases per 100,000 were double what was required for a red ranking last week, the positivity rate has kept the county low. Part of this could be based on testing rates within the county.

According to ISDH figures, 35,067 individuals within Delaware County have had at least one COVID-19 test. A total of 71,193 have been administered overall.

Delaware County will almost certainly maintain an orange status because of the cases per 100,000. Numbers from ISDH showed nearly 300 cases confirmed since Thursday, Nov. 26 which is more than enough to put that specific category in the red. 

The determining factor will be the seven day positivity rate. It's not impossible for counties to surge into the red status with little warning. 

Grant, Jay and Blackford counties have all been elevated to red status during the last update. Seventeen Indiana counties are red status. Nearly all of the rest are in orange.

Delaware County case numbers seem to have plateaued since posting 146 confirmed cases in a single day on Nov. 19. Overall new cases seems to have fallen slightly over the past 10 days, though the most recent surge is far from being considered over.

The latest report from the ISDH on Dec. 1 showed 47 new cases within the county and an additional three deaths. That leaves Delaware County with a total positive case count of 5,299 and 107 deaths.

Even if the Delaware County avoids going into the red on Wednesday, there is little to celebrate as Indiana is still struggling during the second surge of the virus. 

Indiana now ranks second in the nation for COVID-19 hospitalizations per capita, according to an IndyStar analysis of available data. 

Roughly 50 out of every 100,000 Hoosiers are now hospitalized with COVID-19, an increase from last week that is straining the state’s hospital system. Only South Dakota at 61 per 100,000 is doing worse.

On Tuesday, the office of Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb announced that he hasigned an executive order extending the public health emergency first declared in March through at least Dec. 31.

That order has now been extended nine times, and Indiana has been under a public health emergency for 270 days.

Corey Ohlenkamp is the city/county government reporter. Contact him via email at cohlenkamp@muncie.gannett.com or by phone at 765-213-5874. Follow him on Twitter at @Ohlenkamp.