Ballot counts released Monday for the Sept.14 recall show Orange County voters still inclined to keep Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential final result that would mean little to Newsom’s huge win statewide but could be a clue about how the county – and possibly the country – is split heading into next year’s midterms.
As of late Monday, 51.63% of the ballots counted in Orange County were against the recall, while 48.37% were in favor. With a raw difference of 34,800 votes, and nearly 130,000 ballots left to count, the pro-recall side needs to win out by about 2 to 1 to pull off a county victory.
Statewide, the “no recall” side is winning with 63.2% of the vote versus 36.8% who favor Newsom’s ouster.
But, locally, even a narrow win, for either side, will be seen as symbolically important because Orange County increasingly is viewed as one of the nation’s most telling political battlegrounds.
Consider the political swings that have unfolded in Orange County over just the past three years.
In the 2018 midterms, with former President Donald Trump not on the ballot but his political ideology front and center, the one-time Republican stronghold of Orange County voted blue. Democrats took all seven House seats that touch the county and made clear inroads in everything from city council races to the Board of Supervisors.
Then, in August 2019, local Democrats made a different leap, overtaking Republicans in party registration. In the 25 months since then, that trend has continued, and Democrats now outnumber the GOP by 64,500 voters in a county with about 1.8 million active voters.
But in the 2020 election, local Republicans staged a mixed comeback, with GOP Reps. Michelle Steel and Young Kim winning back two House seats. While Democrat Joe Biden was the overwhelming presidential choice in Orange County, the congressional wins suggested Democrats were on less sure footing than they’d hoped.
Enter the Newsom recall. Orange County Republicans played a strong role in pushing for the recall effort and in campaigning to boot Newsom out of office.
Given the landslide results, statewide, it’s unclear if that effort showed GOP strength or weakness.
But Fred Whitaker, chair of the Republican Party of Orange County, said last week that he was confident his party’s ground game helped drive higher local support for the recall.
“From our point of view, it was a terrific exercise,” Whitaker said. “We had over 600 people in the field volunteering. We made over 57,000 direct door contacts. We made over 300,000 phone calls. We had over 600,000 views on our social media.”
But political observers said if the recall fails locally, despite county Republicans playing such a key role in driving the effort, it might help cement the idea that the current GOP isn’t finding crossover voters in politically divided communities like Orange County.
Others, however, suggest the close result reflects the fundamentally mixed nature of Orange County politics.
“The national media are declaring Orange County is now ready for AOC,” joked Jodi Balma, a political science professor at Fullerton College, referencing the way news reports declared the race a flat win for Newsom on election night.
“It’s not,” Balma added. “Orange County is still very purple.”
The close result also reflected a big switch in the ground games of the two major political parties.
Though the GOP criticized so-called ballot harvesting in previous elections – saying the legal practice of turning in ballots for people who can’t make it to the polls or a mailbox was unfair – the recall effort included the Orange County GOP harvesting a lot of ballots. Whitaker said his party collected “thousands” of ballots at their headquarters and turned them in for voters, with more than 200 a day coming in at points.
Local Democrats, on the other hand, deserve credit for helping to drive impressive voter turnout for a special election, Balma said.
A couple decades ago, she said, the county’s Democratic machine was weak. That’s changed, Balma said. “Now, we really are seeing their organization, their passion, their work on the ground.”
Ada Briceño, chair of the Democratic Party of Orange County, said the recall effort will help her side heading into 2022.
“This recall helped Democrats build more voter relationships and more campaign experience that we will immediately apply toward the primaries just 10 months away.”
Results in one election don’t always translate to the next election, said Dan Schnur, a politics professor at USC. But it’s much easier to build on a strong foundation than to start from scratch, he said. And even if either side wins by a single vote, Schnur added, “bragging rights can provide an important psychological boost to volunteers and to campaign professionals.”
Either way, Schnur said, it’s clear that Orange County is going to be a key battleground in state politics for some time to come.
“Republicans would like to see Orange County go back to what it was like in the 20th century. Democrats would like to see the gains they made in recent years continue. But both sides should probably be digging in for the long haul because it’s hard to see either party establishing dominance here anytime soon.”
While that can lead to pricey, drawn-out, contentious elections, Schnur said it’s also good for democracy.
“In a one-sided region that’s overwhelmingly Democrat or Republican, it’s very easy for incumbents to get lazy and for challengers to be somewhat half-hearted,” he said.
“But given the way Orange County politics are playing out right now, both sides know that they are going to need to bring their A-game in almost every race. That can’t help but be a good thing for voters, who will demand to see the best that both sides have to offer.”
