'That's a lot of peanuts.' So said Scott Carson, head of Boeing's commercial airline business, at the thought of flying from Singapore to New York on the latest offering for cost-conscious flyers: the low-cost long-haul carrier.
Despite jetting in to London overnight from the States, Carson was functioning well last week, making speeches, meeting British Airways boss Willie Walsh to talk about planes. Had he made the trip from Boeing HQ in Chicago to London on a no-frills flight - let alone from Singapore to New York - he would not, he suggested, be so sprightly.
So, despite the fact that Ryanair's Michael O'Leary recently talked of launching a low-cost long-haul operator and has talked to Carson about ordering his long-range, fuel-efficient new 787s, the man from Boeing is not yet convinced. He thinks it's unlikely travellers will want to make long journeys on bare-minimum services like Ryanair's, or those of Southwest in the US. There might be a market for low-cost transatlantic flights; any further and some creature comforts will be required.
So, while short-haul low-cost carriers underpinned the success of Boeing's 737 jet, Carson believes the 787 is unlikely to benefit from the same phenomenon. Low-cost airline customers 'may make up 10-15 per cent of the total, a few hundred aircraft', he says.
Carson's guardedness - and it is shared by many analysts - has not prevented a string of launches. There are, despite the doubts, now several operators offering longer routes at low prices.
Some of them are even making money. Zoom, for example, was founded in Canada in 2002 by a group of travel industry executives headed by chairman Hugh Boyle. It now flies from eight Canadian cities to five UK airports and Paris. In June, it is launching a Gatwick-New York service for £129 one way. According to Boyle, Zoom makes a profit on £150m of turnover.
Flyglobespan was started in the same year by Scottish businessman Tom Dalrymple, who runs Globespan, a travel agency. It flies from 13 UK and three Irish airports. Glasgow-Orlando is advertised at £99, Gatwick-Toronto at £49. Last year it made a £4.7m profit - down 24 per cent from the previous year because of spending on new planes.
In Asia, Oasis flies from Hong Kong to Gatwick. It advertises flights from £89, going up to £279 depending on timing and type of ticket. It was launched last year but immediately ran into problems. It was denied access to Russian airspace, which delayed its first flight. None the less, chief executive Stephen Miller says he aims to float in 2009-10, by which time he believes Oasis will be profitable.
Meanwhile, Australian carrier Qantas is behind Jetstar, which flies from Australia's east coast to, among other places, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Japan. Brisbane-Osaka costs £100 one way.
There are also business-only operators such as Silverjet, which floated last year and started flying from Luton to New York in January using a single Boeing 767 fitted out for just 100 passengers. It offers flat-bed business travel from £799 return, with an average fare of £999, compared with the £4,000 'rack rate' from major network carriers.
Like Silverjet, most operators are using small numbers of older planes, which are often leased. Oasis, for example, has just two 747s. They all have ambitions, however. Oasis wants to be running 25 planes to 10 destinations within five years, Silverjet to be running 10 planes within three years.
And they are ordering ahead. Flyglobespan has ordered two 787s, Jetstar has ordered one, and O'Leary has talked of buying up to 50 787s or the Airbus equivalent, the A350.
One leading analyst, Andrew Lobbenberg of ABN Amro, says there are clear openings for these operators. 'The network carriers have very high head-office costs, mature staff with difficult working practices, and strong unions - so there is an opportunity to do better on costs.' Moreover, liberalisation in aviation is gathering pace, with the recent EU-US 'open skies' agreement loosening restrictions on flying across the Atlantic. O'Leary points to this as a critical factor in his plans.
Some parts of the low-cost model are directly transferable to long-haul, such as internet booking and no-frills offerings. Carriers can also focus on secondary airports where fees are cheaper. However, experts are sceptical that the business model can be transplanted exactly. For example, longer journey and turn-around times make it far trickier to draw up efficient timetables than in short-haul operations, where planes can be turned around in half an hour after a one-hour flight and sent back.
Moreover, Chris Avery of JP Morgan, another leading analyst, adds that in the current market, with fuel costs as they are, traditional economy fares are hardly covering the expense of transporting the passenger. 'You need premium passengers because they more than cover their costs,' he says.
Lawrence Hunt, Silverjet's chief executive, says: 'Long-haul is already low cost. We are able to bring our business class fare down to £999 because we do not have to subsidise economy.' He believes those offering economy-driven services are making money at the high point in the airline business cycle, and may find it harder when the market turns down.
Lobbenberg says: 'When the low-cost carriers started, it cost you £250 to get to Milan and back. Now you can get to New York and back for £250. That does not seem like much of a rip-off.'
And he adds: 'There seems to be a bit of "me-tooism" in the number of these operators that are around. It's worth remembering that many of the low-cost carriers went bust.'