United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2022

2022 Republican Party primary elections
Battleground primaries
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; State executive battlegrounds
Federal primaries
	U.S. Senate primaries ; U.S. House primaries; U.S. House primaries with multiple incumbents
State primaries
	Gubernatorial primaries; Attorney General primaries; Secretary of State primaries; State legislative primaries
Primary overviews
	Democratic Party primaries, 2022; Republican Party primaries, 2022; Top-two and top-four battleground primaries, 2022; U.S. House battleground primaries, 2022
Primaries by state
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Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 8, 2022, and 34 of the 100 seats were up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections in 2022 began their six-year terms on January 3, 2023.

On this page, you will find:

Partisan breakdown of the U.S. Senate
List of Republican primaries
List of candidates in each state's Republican Senate primary
Map of states with seats up for election
News and conflicts in these primaries
Outside race ratings

This page focuses on the U.S. Senate battleground primaries, U.S. Senate Republican primaries. For more in-depth information about the U.S. Senate Democratic primaries, top-two primaries, top-four primaries, and general elections, see the following pages:

Partisan breakdown

There were 34 U.S. Senate seats up for regular election in 2022—14 seats held by Democrats and 20 held by Republicans.

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party		As of November 8, 2022	After the 2022 Election
	Democratic Party	48^[1]	48
	Republican Party	50	49
	Independent	2^[1]	3
	Vacancies	0	0
Total		100	100

Republican primaries

Louisiana is included in the list below even though the state uses a majority-vote system in which all candidates regardless of partisan affiliation are listed on the same first-round ballot.

2022 Election Dates
State	Filing deadline	Primary election	Primary winner
Alabama	February 11	May 24/ June 21 runoff	Katie Britt
Alaska	June 1	August 16	Lisa Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), Patricia Chesbro (D), and Buzz Kelley (R)^[2]
Arizona	April 4	August 2	Blake Masters
Arkansas	March 1	May 24	John Boozman
California	March 11	June 7	Mark Meuser
Colorado	March 15	June 28	Joe O'Dea
Connecticut	June 7	August 9	Leora Levy
Florida	June 17	August 23	Marco Rubio
Georgia	March 11	May 24	Herschel Walker
Hawaii	June 7	August 13	Bob McDermott
Idaho	March 11	May 17	Mike Crapo
Illinois	March 14	June 28	Kathy Salvi
Indiana	February 4	May 3	Todd C. Young
Iowa	March 18	June 7	Chuck Grassley
Kansas	June 1	August 2	Jerry Moran
Kentucky	January 25	May 17	Rand Paul
Louisiana	July 22	November 8	Pending
Maryland	April 15	July 19	Chris Chaffee
Missouri	March 29	August 2	Eric Schmitt
Nevada	March 18	June 14	Adam Laxalt
New Hampshire	June 10	September 13	Don Bolduc
New York	April 7	June 28	Joe Pinion
North Carolina	March 4	May 17	Ted Budd
North Dakota	April 11	June 14	John Hoeven
Ohio	February 2	May 3	J.D. Vance
Oklahoma	April 15	June 28	James Lankford
Oklahoma special	April 15	June 28/Runoff August 23	Markwayne Mullin
Oregon	March 8	May 17	Jo Rae Perkins
Pennsylvania	March 15	May 17	Mehmet Oz
South Carolina	March 30	June 14	Tim Scott
South Dakota	March 29	June 7	John Thune
Utah	March 4	June 28	Mike Lee
Vermont	May 26	August 9	Gerald Malloy
Washington	May 20	August 2	Tiffany Smiley
Wisconsin	June 1	August 9	Ron Johnson

Candidate lists

Alabama

United States Senate election in Alabama, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Arizona

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Arkansas

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Michael Deel

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Colorado

United States Senate election in Colorado, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Connecticut

United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2022 (August 9 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Florida

United States Senate election in Florida, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:

Marco Rubio (Incumbent) ✔

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Georgia

United States Senate election in Georgia, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Hawaii

United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2022 (August 13 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Idaho

United States Senate election in Idaho, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Illinois

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Indiana

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Todd C. Young (Incumbent) ✔

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Iowa

United States Senate election in Iowa, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) ✔
Jim Carlin

Did not make the ballot:

Andrew Foster

Kansas

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Jerry Moran (Incumbent) ✔
Joan Farr

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Kentucky

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Louisiana^[3]

United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2022

There are no official candidates yet for this election.

Maryland

United States Senate election in Maryland, 2022 (July 19 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Missouri

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Nevada

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

New Hampshire

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2022 (September 13 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Devon Fuchs

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

New York

United States Senate election in New York, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:

Joe Pinion ✔

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

North Carolina

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

North Dakota

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

John Hoeven (Incumbent) ✔
Riley Kuntz

Did not make the ballot:

Rick Becker

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Ohio

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Oklahoma

United States Senate election in Oklahoma, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Nathan Dahm

Oregon

United States Senate election in Oregon, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Pennsylvania

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

South Carolina

United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:

Tim Scott (Incumbent) ✔

Did not make the ballot:

South Dakota

United States Senate election in South Dakota, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Patrick Schubert Sr.

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Utah

United States Senate election in Utah, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Vermont

United States Senate election in Vermont, 2022 (August 9 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Justin Tuthill

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Wisconsin

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2022 (August 9 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Ronald Harold Johnson (Incumbent) ✔
David Schroeder

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Seats up for election

The map below shows what seats were up for election, the incumbent heading into the election in each state, the 2022 winner in each state, whether each seat was open, and race ratings before the election.

Battleground primaries

See also: Republican Party battleground primaries, 2022

There were 11 U.S. Senate Republican battleground primaries in 2022.

The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2022. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.

News and conflicts in the 2022 Republican Senate primaries

The following were reprinted from Ballotpedia's The Heart of the Primaries newsletter, which captured stories related to conflicts within each major party.

September 15, 2022

Breaking down Trump's primary endorsements and outcomes

Perhaps the most persistent storyline throughout the 2022 GOP primaries was former President Donald Trump's (R) involvement, mainly via endorsements. We tallied 244 primaries and conventions in which Trump endorsed, 241 of which had taken place as of September 15, 2022 (the other three were in Louisiana). See our endorsements page for a full list.

Unopposed

Of the primaries completed at the time, 60 candidates (25%) Trump endorsed ran unopposed. (We counted candidates who only had write-in opposition as unopposed.)

Contested

Of the 176 contested primaries that had taken place in which Trump endorsed (excluding five races in which candidates didn't make the ballot), 159 Trump endorsees won and 17 lost. That's a success rate of 90%.

Endorsed GOP incumbent challengers

Some of the most noteworthy GOP primaries of the year were those where Trump endorsed a challenger to a Republican incumbent. There were 17 such primaries, and six endorsed challengers defeated incumbents. All are listed in the table below.

Note that we didn't include the two primaries in which GOP incumbents ran against each other due to redistricting. In West Virginia's 2nd, Trump backed Rep. Alex Mooney against Rep. David McKinley, and Mooney won. And in Illinois' 15th, Trump-endorsed Rep. Mary Miller defeated Rep. Rodney Davis. (More on these races below.)

Over the year, we covered a number of stories on battleground races in which Trump's influence was a major theme. Here are just a few stories capturing key moments:

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska (July)
Trump endorses Vance in Ohio U.S. Senate primary (April)
Trump endorses Oz in Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary (April)
RGA releases second pro-Kemp ad, Trump campaigns for Perdue in Georgia (March)
Arrington challenges Mace in SC-01 with Trump endorsement (February)

Democrats spent millions in GOP primaries

According to a Washington Post analysis, Democratic groups and individuals spent around $53 million in Republican primaries this year, 65% of which occurred in Illinois' gubernatorial primary. The rest occurred in 12 primaries across eight states.

The Post's Annie Linskey wrote, "Some Democrats explain their actions by saying they are simply getting a jump on attacking Republican candidates for the general election, while others openly acknowledge trying to secure weaker competition in the fall. But there is little dispute about the effect of altering the Republican primaries in ways that could affect the November matchups."

We wrote about Democratic groups spending in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate primary and the 2nd Congressional District last week. Previous issues included stories on Democratic spending in Maryland's gubernatorial election and Illinois' gubernatorial primary.

After the $35 million Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the Democratic Governors Association spent on ads the Post said were meant to boost Darren Bailey, who won the GOP primary, the Post found the next-highest spending levels in Colorado's U.S. Senate primary ($4 million), Nevada's gubernatorial primary ($3.9 million), and New Hampshire's U.S. Senate primary ($3.2 million).

The Post described candidates the Democratic groups apparently intended to support as far right. Four of those candidates won primaries and seven lost.

Linskey's piece also discussed the debate among Democrats over Democratic spending in GOP primaries. Read more here.

Cross-party primary spending has happened before. For example, in 2012, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) ran ads designed to boost Todd Akin in Missouri's GOP Senate primary, whom McCaskill went on to defeat in the general election. In 2020, a Republican group spent on ads and activities supporting Erica Smith (D) in North Carolina's Democratic Senate primary. Cal Cunningham defeated Smith in the primary.

September 8, 2022

Satellite spending and polling roundup in NH battleground races

Here's a roundup of the latest satellite spending and polling ahead of New Hampshire's congressional primaries on Sept. 13.

In the Senate primary, two satellite groups placed ad buys totaling more than $10 million combined in recent weeks.

White Mountain PAC is spending more than $4 million on ads supporting state Senate President Chuck Morse, who has trailed Don Bolduc in polls. The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC is spending $6 million on ads opposing Morse. The Washington Post's Azi Paybarah said the PAC is trying to boost Bolduc and that its involvement is "the latest example of Democrats spending money to boost far-right candidates in Republican primaries in the belief they will be easier to defeat in November."

A recent University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll showed Bolduc leading Morse 43% to 22%, with 20% undecided. The poll's margin of error (MOE) was +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is running for re-election. Hassan defeated Kelly Ayotte (R) 48.0% to 47.9% in 2016.

The 1st Congressional District primary has seen more than $2 million in satellite spending. The Congressional Leadership Fund spent more than $800,000 supporting 2020 GOP nominee Matt Mowers. The group Defending Main Street spent more than $500,000 opposing Karoline Leavitt. American Dream Federal Action spent $300,000 supporting Mowers, and Truth & Courage PAC spent $200,000 supporting Leavitt.

In UNH's 1st District poll, Mowers and Leavitt were essentially tied 26% to 24%. Gail Huff Brown was next with 16%, and 26% were undecided. The MOE was +/- 4.8 percentage points.

Incumbent Chris Pappas is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

In the 2nd District, American Liberty Action PAC is spending almost $500,000 supporting Keene Mayor George Hansel. The PAC Democrats Serve spent $100,000 on an ad saying Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns "follows the Trump playbook on immigration, the border and guns."

Politico's Ally Mutnick said the Democratic group is trying to "elevat[e] a far-right candidate over a moderate backed by GOP Gov. Chris Sununu." Sununu endorsed Hansel. One of the major issues in the race is abortion. Burns calls himself pro-life, while Hansel says he's pro-choice.

In UNH's 2nd District poll, Burns had 32% to Hansel's 18%. Lily Tang Williams had 10%, and 37% were undecided. The MOE was +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Incumbent Annie Kuster is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Race ratings and electoral history suggest competitive Senate and House general elections in New Hampshire this year.

NRSC Chair Rick Scott criticizes Republicans who criticize GOP Senate candidates

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, wrote an op-ed in the Washington Examiner telling fellow Republicans to stop saying the party's Senate nominees aren't good candidates.

Scott said, "many of the very people responsible for losing the Senate last cycle are now trying to stop us from winning the majority this time by trash-talking our Republican candidates." Scott did not name anyone in particular but said, "Giving anonymous quotes to help the Washington Post or the New York Times write stories trashing Republicans is the same as working with the Democratic National Committee."

Scott further said that "when you complain and lament that we have 'bad candidates,' what you are really saying is that you have contempt for the voters who chose them."

In an interview last week, Scott commented on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) statement that "there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome."

Scott said, "I clearly disagree with what he said. … We both agree we want to get the majority."

On Monday, Politico changed its forecast for Senate control from Lean Republican to Toss-up. FiveThirtyEight has said Democrats are Slightly Favored to maintain control of the Senate since late July, a change from Toss-up. Both outlets mention Republican nominees, including in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, as a factor in their ratings changes.

Scott wrote, "We have great candidates with incredible backgrounds and ideas to make our country better. Do I wish they had more money than their Democratic opponent? Of course. But we have great candidates, chosen by the voters in their states, and our job is to help each one of them win."

August 25, 2022

Primary results roundup

Florida and New York held statewide primaries Tuesday, while Oklahoma held a statewide primary runoff. We were watching two battleground Republican primaries in those states. Here’s how those races unfolded:

New York’s 23rd Congressional District: Nicolas Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino 51%-47%.

Langworthy is a former chairman of the New York Republican Party who was also a member of the executive committee for Donald Trump’s (R) presidential transition in 2016. Paladino was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2010 and co-chaired Trump’s 2016 campaign in New York.

Both candidates won endorsements from national Republicans. Langworthy’s endorsers included U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R), and Paladino’s included U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R).

The 23rd District is currently vacant following Tom Reed’s (R) resignation in May amidst an allegation of sexual misconduct.

Election forecasters rate the general election Solid/Safe Republican.

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special runoff: Markwayne Mullin defeated T.W. Shannon 65%-35%.

Mullin is a member of the U.S. House who was first elected in 2012. Shannon is the CEO of Chickasaw Community Bank and a former state representative.

Mullin and Shannon were the top two finishers from a 13-candidate field running for the Republican nomination for the four remaining years in Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R) term. Inhofe will retire in January.

Mullin’s endorsers include former President Donald Trump (R), and Shannon’s included former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Media coverage

Politico wrote about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) endorsements:

“

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ political muscle was on full display Tuesday night, as candidates he endorsed won a handful of key state legislative races and a wave of school board seats, which were a main focus for the governor in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm.

DeSantis’ biggest legislative win was Republican Kiyan Michael, who is running for a Jacksonville state House seat. Michael was running against more established and better funded politicians, including a former state representative.

DeSantis did not endorse until late in the race, but his support gave Michael immediate momentum to overcome her Republican rivals. She ended up securing 47 percent of the vote in a three-way primary. … For the final weeks of primary season, DeSantis put an outsized effort, including contributions from his personal political committee, into local school boards across the state. It’s part of his broader agenda to reshape Florida’s education system.

It worked. Of the 30 school board candidates that got DeSantis’ formal support, 21 won their election bids Tuesday night.^[4]

”

The Tampa Bay Times wrote about incumbents’ performance in Florida’s primaries:

“

If the Democratic establishment had a good night, the Republican Party institution had a great one.

Senate President Wilton Simpson comfortably defeated primary challenger James W. Shaw in the GOP primary for agriculture commissioner. Several incumbent U.S. representatives — Vern Buchanan, for example — crushed primary opponents challenging them from the right.

Then there were the candidates who lost.

During his two terms in office, state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, R-Howey-in-the-Hills, made enemies around the Florida Legislature. He repeatedly clashed with his own party’s leadership, calling Chris Sprowls, the top Republican in the Florida House, a RINO: Republican In Name Only. As Sabatini geared up for the 7th Congressional District GOP primary, it was apparent that top state Republicans were rooting for him to lose.

He did, by more than 10,000 votes, to veteran Cory Mills, whose campaign netted more than a dozen endorsements from GOP U.S. representatives. After the race was called, Sabatini blamed the result on “the Swamp.”

In The Villages-area 11th Congressional District primary, a similar story played out in far-right activist Laura Loomer’s challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster. Loomer, who has called Islam a “cancer on society,” lost the primary by about 5,000 votes. (She refused to concede Tuesday, citing “big tech election interference.”)^[4]

”

Poll shows over a third of New Hampshire Republicans are undecided in U.S. Senate race

Don Bolduc and Chuck Morse lead in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate primary, according to a St. Anselm College poll that shows a tight race in the 1st Congressional District.

The poll found Bolduc leading Morse 32% to 16%, with nearly 40% undecided. No other candidate had support from more than 5% of respondents. “It’s very unclear who’s going to win this,” said Fergus Cullen, a former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party.

According to Politico’s Natalie Allison, “two potentially decisive endorsements loom: That of former President Donald Trump, and [New Hampshire Gov. Chris] Sununu.” Though he has not endorsed a candidate, Sununu has criticized Bolduc, saying, “I don’t take Bolduc as a serious candidate. I don’t think most people do.”

In an Aug. 14 debate sponsored by the Government Integrity Project, Bolduc, Bruce Fenton, and Kevin Smith all said they doubted the outcome of the 2020 election. Bolduc said, “I signed a letter with 120 other generals and admirals saying Trump won the election, and damn it, I stand by [it].” Fenton said that "we can’t tell what’s true,” but that there was “a lot of fraud” during the election. Smith said “it’s very unlikely that Joe Biden got 81 million votes” and said he’d support investigations into the 2020 election if elected.

The three candidates also offered their positions on the FBI following the department’s search of former President Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago. "The first question we have to ask is, do we still need the FBI? If we answer that question no, then get rid of them," Bolduc said. "It's time to abolish the FBI and replace it with nothing," Felton said. "I believe at its core, it's a good institution, and I believe there are fine men and women who want to do their jobs and want to protect us," Smith said.

As of June 30, Fenton had raised $1.6 million to Morse’s $1.3 million. Smith raised $700,000, and Bolduc raised $500,000.

The incumbent is Sen. Maggie Hassan (D), who was first elected in 2016. The two preceding Senate elections were split in competitiveness. In 2020, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) won re-election against Bryant Messner (R) by a margin of 15.6 percentage points. In 2016, Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) by 0.1 percentage points.

New Hampshire uses a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.

August 4, 2022

Primary results roundup

Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington held statewide primaries on Tuesday. Ohio held state legislative primaries. As of Wednesday afternoon, several of Arizona's races were still undecided. Here are highlights from Tuesday's battlegrounds.

Big stories of the night: MI-03, Michigan gubernatorial, and Missouri U.S. Senate primaries

Michigan's 3rd District: John Gibbs defeated incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer. As of Wednesday morning, Gibbs had 52% to Meijer's 48%. Meijer was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021. Trump endorsed Gibbs in the primary. Gibbs previously served as acting assistant secretary for community planning and development in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Trump appointed him to that position in 2020.

Meijer is one of 10 House incumbents, and one of six Republicans, who ran for re-election and lost in primaries this year. In 2020, eight incumbents lost in primaries or conventions, including five Republicans.

Three race forecasters viewed the general election for Michigan's 3rd as a Toss-up before the primary.

Michigan governor: Tudor Dixon won. As of Wednesday morning, Dixon had 41% of the vote. Kevin Rinke was second with 22%, and Garrett Soldano third with 18%. Trump endorsed Dixon days before the primary. Dixon was a news anchor for America's Voice News.

Race forecasters view the general election as either Lean or Tilt Democratic. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is seeking re-election.

U.S. Senate in Missouri: Eric Schmitt won against 20 other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Schmitt had 46% of the vote. Vicky Hartzler had 22%, and Eric Greitens had 19%.

Schmitt has been the state's attorney general since 2019. Hartzler has represented Missouri's 4th Congressional District since 2011. Greitens was governor from 2017 until June 1, 2018, when he resigned following investigations into allegations of sexual misconduct and misuse of campaign information.

On August 1, Trump released a statement endorsing "Eric" in the race but did not say whether he was endorsing Greitens or Schmitt.

Incumbent Roy Blunt (R), who was first elected in 2010, didn't run for re-election. Before the primary, independent forecasters viewed the general election as Likely or Solid Republican.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate in Arizona: Blake Masters defeated four other candidates. Masters had 39% of the vote with 78% of results reported. Jim Lamon was second with 29% and Mark Brnovich third with 18%. Masters will face incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in what election forecasters view as a Toss-up race in November.

Arizona's 1st District: Rep. David Schweikert won with 43%, according to results available Wednesday afternoon. Elijah Norton had 33%, and Josh Barnett 23%. Schweikert currently represents Arizona's 6th Congressional District and ran in the 1st due to redistricting. According to Daily Kos data, 75% of the redrawn 1st District, which covers parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale, came from areas Schweikert represents in the old 6th District. Race forecasters view the 1st District general election as Lean Republican.

Arizona's 2nd District: Eli Crane defeated six other candidates with 34% of the vote. Walter Blackman finished second with 24%. Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), who represents the old 1st District, is running in the 2nd. Forecasters view the general election as Likely or Lean Republican.

Kansas attorney general: Former Secretary of State Kris Kobach won with 42% to state Sen. Kellie Warren's 38%, according to results available Wednesday afternoon. The race is open as incumbent Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) is running for governor.

Other primaries we've followed closely and that hadn't been called as of Wednesday afternoon were for Arizona governor and superintendent of public instruction. Click the links to follow up on those races.

Media analysis

The Washington Times' Seth McLaughlin wrote about Meijer's defeat and the primary results for other GOP representatives who voted for impeachment:

“

Rep. Peter Meijer lost his primary race Tuesday in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, handing former President Donald Trump another victory in his quest to rid the House of Republicans who voted to impeach him for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

Another pair of pro-impeachment Republicans — Reps. Dan Newhouse and Jaime Herrera Beulter, both of Washington state — were awaiting their fate Wednesday morning.

But they were well-positioned to advance to the general election in Washington’s top-two primary system, while Mr. Trump’s preferred picks appeared to have fallen short.

Mr. Meijer’s loss came more than 18 months after he joined nine of his GOP colleagues in voting to impeach Mr. Trump.

The former president vowed revenge and has gotten it. Four pro-impeachment Republicans did not seek reelection, and two others have now lost primaries to Trump-backed challengers.

The attention will now turn to Rep. Liz Cheney’s Aug. 16 primary in Wyoming.^[4]

”

Politico wrote that Tuesday's results were favorable to what it called "the traditionalist wing of the Republican Party:"

“

Republicans dodged two bullets on Tuesday. In Missouri, Eric Greitens, the disgraced former governor, finished far behind in his Senate primary bid. And in Michigan, Tudor Dixon emerged from a gubernatorial primary full of more hard-line contenders many Republicans feared would be a drag on the party in November.

That’s good news for the GOP. And it’s a departure from where the party appeared to be heading in many of its early primaries — picking candidates who seem dangerously prone to getting in the way of the good political environment for Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, physician Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee for Senate, has been polling so poorly Republicans are discussing alternative paths to the Senate majority. Republicans all but conceded the gubernatorial race in heavily-Democratic Maryland after nominating Dan Cox, the Trump-endorsed state lawmaker who organized buses to Washington for the rally preceding the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

It’s possible the early results on Tuesday will turn out to be a blip. In Arizona, Mark Finchem, an election denier running for secretary of state with Trump’s endorsement, was running ahead. And overall in this year’s primaries, said Jason Roe, the former executive director of the state Republican Party in Michigan, "I think in a lot of cases we have nominated our weakest general election candidates, so the primaries have not served us well."

But for the traditionalist wing of the Republican Party, the early indications on Tuesday were mostly positive. An exception: Kari Lake, the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor who still insists, falsely, that Trump won the 2020 election, pulled ahead of Karrin Taylor Robson, the establishment-backed candidate, as vote-counting continued through Wednesday morning.^[4]

”

Reuters' James Oliphant discussed Dixon's win in Michigan in the context of abortion policy and Dixon's prospects against Whitmer in November:

“

In the Michigan governor's race, there will be no middle ground when it comes to abortion rights. … Whitmer has made the U.S. Supreme Court's overturning of constitutional protection for abortion a centerpiece in her re-election campaign. Dixon supports a near-total ban on abortion, including for child victims of rape and incest, with the only exception for cases when the life of the mother is at risk.

A legal battle is being waged in the state over enforcement of a 1931 abortion ban. At the same time, supporters of abortion rights are seeking to place a measure on the November ballot that would legalize abortion in the state.

With just three months until the election, longtime Republican pollster Steve Mitchell said Dixon has enough time to mount a competitive challenge to Whitmer and should see a strong flow of campaign funds from outside the state.

Dixon is a former businesswoman in the steel industry who has billed herself as a "conservative mom" of four who opposed COVID-19 lockdowns at schools. Mitchell said she could appeal to like-minded parents and make a strong foil to Whitmer, who often talks about her own role as a mother of daughters and also faced criticism for her coronavirus lockdown orders.

"It’s going to be a fascinating race," Mitchell said. "In my opinion, none of the men (in the Republican field) could have beaten Whitmer."^[4]

”

July 14, 2022

Trump rules out endorsement for Hartzler in Missouri, but picks Mullin in special Oklahoma Senate primary

On July 8, Trump said he would not endorse U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler in her bid for the U.S. Senate GOP nomination in Missouri:

“

She [Hartzler] called me this morning asking for my Endorsement, much as she has on many other occasions. I was anything but positive in that I don’t think she has what it takes to take on the Radical Left Democrats, together with their partner in the destruction of our Country, the Fake News Media and, of course, the deceptive & foolish RINOs.^[4]

”

Hartzler said, "The endorsement that counts is the endorsement of the Missouri people who know I am one of them and have been fighting for them."

Twenty-one candidates are running in the Aug. 2 primary. The Missouri Independent said, "Polls throughout the campaign have shown [former Gov. Eric] Greitens, Hartzler and Attorney General Eric Schmitt tightly grouped at the top of the crowded Republican field" and that a Trump endorsement "is widely considered a potential silver bullet in the race that would automatically launch whoever received it to frontrunner status."

The Kansas City Star wrote that "Trump has previously issued a statement of support — which he specified was not an endorsement — for U.S. Rep. Billy Long, but Long has … been running in fourth place in polling of the race."

Incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is retiring.

Trump did endorse in Oklahoma's special U.S. Senate election this past week, backing U.S. Rep. Markwayne Mullin over T.W. Shannon in the Aug. 23 primary runoff. Mullin received 44% to Shannon's 18% in the primary.

Incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) is resigning.

Click here to see stories from previous editions.

July 7, 2022

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska

Former President Donald Trump will hold a rally in Anchorage, Alaska, on Saturday for GOP candidates in three battleground elections: Gov. Mike Dunleavy, At-Large House candidate Sarah Palin, and U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka.

Top-four primaries will be held Aug. 16, the same day as a ranked-choice voting special general election for U.S. House. Candidates of all affiliations will appear on the same ballot in each race.

Dunleavy faces four Republicans, one Democrat, two independents, and two minor-party candidates. That includes former Gov. Bill Walker (I), who withdrew from the 2018 gubernatorial race that Dunleavy ultimately won; former state Rep. Les Gara (D); Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce (R); and state Rep. Christopher Kurka (R).

Nineteen candidates are running for U.S. Senate, including incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R). Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the state Department of Administration, is one of seven Republicans challenging Murkowski. Three Democrats, three minor-party candidates, and five independent or nonpartisan candidates are also running. Murkowski is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year who voted guilty during Trump's 2021 impeachment trial. Of the seven Republican senators who voted guilty, three have seats up for election this year. North Carolina's Richard Burr and Pennsylvania's Pat Toomey aren't seeking re-election.

Palin, a former governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate, is running in both the special general election and the regular top-four primary for U.S. House on Aug. 16. Palin advanced from the 48-candidate special primary field with 27% of the vote. She joins investor Nick Begich III (R) and former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the special general election. Al Gross (I) also advanced from the June 11 primary but withdrew from the race on June 20. Former incumbent Don Young (R) died in March. Twenty-two candidates are running in the top-four regular primary, including Begich, Palin, and Peltola.

The Alaska Republican Party has endorsed both Dunleavy and Pierce in the gubernatorial election, Tshibaka in the Senate election, and Begich in the House election.

Alaska voters approved the new top-four primary/ranked-choice voting general election system in 2020. Click here for more information.

June 30, 2022

Primary results roundup

Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Utah held statewide primaries on Tuesday. New York held primaries for statewide offices and state House districts, and Mississippi and South Carolina held primary runoffs. The results below were current as of Wednesday morning.

Big stories of the night

Illinois' 15th District: Rep. Mary Miller defeated Rep. Rodney Davis 58% to 42%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

Davis has represented Illinois' 13th Congressional District since 2013, and Miller has represented the 15th since 2021. According to data from Daily Kos, 28% of the new 15th District's population comes from the old 13th District (which Davis represents), and 31% comes from the old 15th District (which Miller represents).

Davis is one of eight House members who sought re-election and lost this year. Another, Marie Newman (D), lost in Illinois' 6th on Tuesday in another incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary. Four primaries featuring multiple incumbents have taken place so far, and two are upcoming.

Illinois Governor: Darren Bailey defeated five other candidates with 57% of the vote. Jesse Sullivan was second with 16%. Richard Irvin finished third with 15%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Likely or Solid Democratic. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) is running for re-election.

Bailey is a farmer and was elected to the Illinois Senate in 2020. Sullivan is a venture capitalist who has not previously held political office. Irvin is an attorney and mayor of Aurora, the state’s second-largest city. Bailey received $9 million in contributions from businessman Richard Uihlein. Hedge fund manager Ken Griffin donated $50 million to Irvin.

Colorado U.S. Senate: Joe O'Dea defeated Ron Hanks 55.5% to 45.5%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Likely or Solid Democratic. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is running for re-election.

Key issues in the race included abortion and the 2020 election. O’Dea said he did not support overturning Roe v. Wade or total abortion bans, while Hanks supported a total abortion ban. O’Dea said he did not believe the 2020 election was stolen and that Republicans should focus on issues, while Hanks said he believed former President Donald Trump (R) won the 2020 election.

See below to read about Democratic involvement in this and the Illinois gubernatorial race.

Mississippi's 4th District primary runoff: Mike Ezell defeated incumbent Steven Palazzo 54%-46%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

All five candidates who lost in the June 7 primary endorsed Ezell, who was elected Jackson County sheriff in 2014. Palazzo was first elected to the U.S. House in 2010.

Palazzo is under a House Ethics Committee investigation over allegations that he converted campaign funds to pay personal expenses. Palazzo has denied wrongdoing.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special primary: Markwayne Mullin and T.W. Shannon advanced to an Aug. 23 runoff. Mullin received 44% of the vote and Shannon received 18%. Ten candidates ran in the primary. The special election will fill the remainder of retiring incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R) term.

U.S. House

Colorado's 8th District: Barbara Kirkmeyer defeated three other candidates with 41% of the vote. Jan Kulmann finished second with 23%. Colorado gained an eighth congressional district after the 2020 census. Three forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up.

Mississippi's 3rd District primary runoff: Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Michael Cassidy 66% to 34%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

State executives

Colorado Secretary of State: Pam Anderson won with 44% of the vote. Mike O'Donnell finished second with 29% and Tina Peters third with 27%. Anderson views the 2020 presidential election results as legitimate, while Peters and O'Donnell deny their legitimacy. Peters was indicted on charges stemming from an election tampering investigation, where she has denied wrongdoing. Republicans won each election for this office from 1962 to 2018, when Sec. of State Jean Griswold (D) defeated Wayne Williams (R).

Oklahoma Attorney General: Gentner Drummond defeated incumbent John O'Connor 51% to 49%. No Democratic candidates filed to run. Drummond faces Lynda Steele (L) in the general election.

Media analysis

The Associated Press discussed O'Dea's Senate primary win in context of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization:

“

The abortion debate consumed the nation this week, but there was no race where it mattered more than Colorado's Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, where businessman Joe O'Dea became one of the only abortion-rights-supporting Republican in the nation to win a statewide primary this year.

O'Dea beat back a stiff challenge from state Rep. Ron Hanks, a Trump loyalist who opposed abortion with no exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother.

O'Dea will face Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in November, and if he wins, he would become just the third Senate Republican — and the only male — to support abortion rights.

He said he backs a ban on late-term abortions and government funding of abortions but that the decision to terminate a pregnancy in the initial months is "between a person and their God.

Democrats had spent at least $2.5 million on ads designed to boost O'Dea's opponent by promoting, among other things, that he was "too conservative for backing a complete abortion ban.^[4]

”

The Hill wrote about results in Illinois' and Colorado's primaries where Democrats sought to influence outcomes:

“

Ahead of Tuesday’s primaries, Democrats made clear what kind of Republicans they hoped to run against in November, pouring money into ads boosting far-right candidates with shaky general election prospects.

That strategy ultimately paid off in the GOP primary for Illinois governor, where Trump’s endorsed candidate, state Sen. Darren Bailey, notched a win over a more moderate Republican, former Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin.

Still, it wasn’t an across-the-board success for Democrats.

In Colorado, Republican Heidi Ganahl beat out Greg Lopez in the GOP gubernatorial primary despite Democratic-aligned groups spending big to tout Lopez’s conservative credentials.

The same is true in the Colorado GOP Senate primary, where Democrats were hoping to boost conservative state Rep. Ron Hanks over businessman Joe O’Dea, a more moderate Republican. O’Dea ultimately clinched the nomination to take on Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

Democrats still have the incumbent advantage in both the Colorado Senate and gubernatorial race. But the failed efforts to lift up hard-line conservatives in the primaries show the limits of money in politics.^[4]

”

The Washington Examiner wrote that Trump-endorsed candidates' victories in Illinois worsens Republicans' general election prospects in the state:

“

Illinois Republicans are under the thumb of insular, combative populists after state Sen. Darren Bailey and Rep. Mary Miller won primaries for governor and Congress, respectively, over appealing conservative pragmatists who would have improved their party’s midterm election prospects in this deep blue state.

Bailey was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Miller, who captured the nomination in Illinois’s newly configured 15th Congressional District, was endorsed by the former president and the Club for Growth, an influential conservative advocacy group based in Washington. So neither qualifies as anti-establishment outsiders.

But Bailey’s victory over Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, who is black, in the race for the gubernatorial nod and Miller’s defeat of incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis in a House primary forced by redistricting marked the coronation of the Trump-aligned, “MAGA” wing of the party atop the Illinois GOP.^[4]

”

The Chicago Sun-Times' Mark Brown said some factors could benefit Bailey:

“

Now to win a second term, Pritzker must defeat Bailey, a downstate farmer who gained notoriety as a first term state senator by challenging the governor’s COVID-19 restrictions.

Conventional wisdom says Pritzker will do so, marking him as a heavy favorite for November in a Democrat-dominated state that for decades has been hospitable to only moderate Republicans in statewide races.

Bailey is a conservative’s conservative who looks like a candidate from the 1950s with the political beliefs to match and boasts the support of former President Donald Trump, who lost this state by 17 percentage points twice — 944,714 votes in 2016 and 1,025,024 in 2020. Bailey’s path to victory is not readily apparent.

But that’s why elections probably should come with the same disclaimer as the stock market: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Working in Bailey’s favor is the expectation this will be a big Republican year nationally with the usual mid-term presidential backlash compounded by high inflation and gas prices and a worrisome war in Ukraine.

Throw in the fact Democratic voters often don’t turn out in off-year elections and you start to see why Illinois Democrats better not take anything for granted against Bailey.^[4]

”

Former Ohio U.S. Senate candidate starts new PAC

State Sen. Matt Dolan, who placed third in the Ohio U.S. Senate primary in May, has launched Ohio Matters PAC. Dolan's immediate goal is helping Republicans win majorities in Congress.

Dolan said, "If we’re going to continue to just focus on the past, we’re going to fail as Republicans."

Politico's Natalie Allison wrote, "Dolan was the only candidate on a debate stage of five in March to raise his hand when the moderator asked if, for the betterment of the Republican Party, it was time for Trump to stop talking about the last presidential election."

J.D. Vance won the Senate primary and had Trump's endorsement.

June 23, 2022

Primary opponents criticize Greitens' new campaign ad

Missouri U.S. Senate candidate Eric Greitens released a campaign ad Monday in which he carries a gun and tells viewers to get a "RINO hunting permit." Greitens' primary opponents and the state Fraternal Order of Police criticized the ad.

Greitens identifies himself in the ad as a Navy SEAL and says, "Today, we’re going RINO hunting." Greitens and a group of armed men in military gear then break into a house and throw a flash grenade inside. Greitens says, "Join the MAGA crew, get a RINO hunting permit. There's no bagging limit, no tagging limit, and it doesn’t expire until we save our country."

Facebook removed the video from its platform for violating its policies "prohibiting violence and incitement." Twitter added a warning to the video, saying, "This Tweet violated the Twitter Rules about abusive behavior. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain accessible."

Other Senate GOP primary candidates in Missouri criticized the video.

U.S. Rep. Billy Long said the video was distasteful, adding, "[Missouri Attorney General Eric] Schmitt nor [U.S. Rep Vicky] Hartzler can beat him, but he may be able to beat himself. … The way to beat RINOs like Schmitt and Hartzler is at the ballot box."

State Sen. Dave Schatz tweeted, "Completely irresponsible. That’s why I’m running. It’s time to restore sanity and reject this nonsense. Missouri deserves better."

Hartzler said, "Eric Greitens is an abuser, a blackmailer, and less than ten years ago — a Democrat. … To be clear: The only RINO featured in Eric Greitens’ web video is himself."

Greitens was governor of Missouri from 2017 to 2018, when he resigned following allegations of sexual misconduct and misuse of campaign information. This year, Greitens' ex-wife alleged that he abused her and one of their children. Greitens denied the allegations.

The Missouri Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) said, "The creation and release of this video again demonstrates that Mr. Greitens does not possess the sound judgement necessary to represent the people of Missouri in the United States Senate." The Missouri FOP has endorsed Schmitt in the primary.

Greitens said, "We just wanted to demonstrate with a sense of humor and with a sense of fun that we are going to take on RINOS." Greitens said it was "entertaining to watch the faux outrage of all of the liberals and RINO snowflakes around the country and around the state."

Twenty-one candidates are running in the Senate GOP primary on Aug. 2. In an Emerson College poll from early June, Greitens received 26% support, followed by Schmitt with 20%, Hartzler with 16%, and Long with 8%. Twenty-seven percent were undecided. The margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points.

Incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) is not running for re-election.

June 16, 2022

Primary results roundup

Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina held primaries on June 14. Alaska also held its top-four special House primary on June 11. Here's what went down in this week's marquee races.

South Carolina's 7th: Russell Fry defeated incumbent Rep. Tom Rice and five other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Fry had 51% of the vote to Rice's 25%.

Rice is the fifth incumbent House member to lose a re-election bid this year and the third Republican. Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) and Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.) lost primaries against fellow incumbents.

South Carolina's 1st: Incumbent Nancy Mace defeated Katie Arrington. Mace led Arrington 53%-45% as of Wednesday morning.

Arrington, a former state representative, won the district's Republican primary in 2018, defeating incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford (R) before losing the general election to Joe Cunningham (D). Mace defeated Cunningham in 2020.

Mace said she was best equipped to win in November and that the district wants an independent voice. Arrington said Mace was not conservative enough and that she wasn't sufficiently supportive of Trump.

Three election forecasters rate the November election Solid or Safe Republican.

U.S. Senate in Nevada: Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt defeated Sam Brown and six other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Laxalt led Brown 56%-34%.

Laxalt had endorsements from Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). The Nevada Republican Party endorsed Brown, who received 80% of delegates' support compared to Laxalt's 50% (a candidate needed more than 50% for the endorsement). Laxalt faces incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in this Toss-up general election.

Alaska's U.S. House special: Saturday's special primary election for Alaska's At-Large Congressional District remains uncalled. The four candidates with the most votes will advance to the Aug. 16 special general election, which will use ranked-choice voting. As of election night, Sarah Palin (R) had 29.8% of the vote, Nicholas Begich III (R) had 19.3%, Al Gross (I) had 12.5%, Mary Peltola (D) had 7.5%, and Tara Sweeney (R) had 5.3%. The 43 other candidates each had less than 5%. The final ballot count is scheduled for June 21. The primary was conducted mainly through mail-in ballots, which had to be postmarked by June 11. Click here for the most up-to-date results.

Media analysis

Politico Playbook wrote that the Republican primary candidates with whom Trump is angry who have won primaries had embraced Trump in their campaigns, while Rice did not:

“

Republicans can survive crossing Trump, but rarely can they survive being anti-Trump …

Trump went one for two in key South Carolina primaries last night. … What explains the difference? On last week’s "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast, we talked to South Dakota Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON about the lessons he learned winning a Republican primary after voting against Trump. (In his case, the vote was about creating an independent January 6 commission.)

"There are going to be times those votes cause you political discomfort," Johnson said. "Don’t run away from them, but don’t run away from the electorate either."

So far this year, the Trump-targeted Republicans who have survived his wrath have run campaigns that embrace Trump even as he spurns them. Whether it’s Idaho Gov. BRAD LITTLE, Johnson in South Dakota or Mace in South Carolina, these victors were all careful not to run against Trump.

In South Carolina, Rep. Rice actually told voters what he thought. Trump, he said in a recent interview with Ally Mutnick, was "spiteful and petty and vengeful" and a "narcissist" who "craves attention." Rice lost. He ran away from the South Carolina GOP electorate.^[4]

”

National Review's Alexandra DeSanctis wrote about other differences between South Carolina's 1st and 7th District primaries that may have influenced outcomes for Mace and Rice:

“

What are we to make of the discrepancy? One way of looking at it is the degree of separation from the former president: Both Rice and Mace had angered him enough to get him to back a primary challenger, but only Rice had voted to impeach him over the events of January 6. Mace condemned the president in a speech and voted to certify the election results, but she didn’t join the ten GOP representatives who voted for impeachment.

Another possible explanation is Mace’s opponent. Arrington has played the role of a right-wing, Trump-supported challenger before, when she unseated former Republican representative Mark Sanford over his criticism of the former president. But Arrington went on to lose to the Democrat candidate in the general election, and perhaps voters were wary of a similar problem this November, though the climate this election year is, of course, quite different. The New York Times adds this bit of insight:

"Ms. Mace raised more money than Ms. Arrington by a 2-to-1 margin and outspent her by more than $300,000 on the airwaves, according to the political spending tracker AdImpact. She courted the district’s most influential political and business leaders and, in the race’s final days, campaigned alongside a number of high-profile figures on the right, including a former Trump White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, and former Gov. Nikki Haley."^[4]

”

Trump endorses Britt in Alabama's U.S. Senate runoff

Former President Trump endorsed Katie Britt in the Senate primary runoff in Alabama. Trump had endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks in the GOP primary then rescinded that endorsement in March, citing comments Brooks made in 2021 about moving past the 2020 election.

Trump said in July 2021 that Britt was unqualified and criticized her connection to retiring incumbent Sen. Richard Shelby (R), whom Trump called a RINO. Britt once served as Shelby's chief of staff. Trump said in his recent endorsement, "The opposition says Katie is close to Mitch McConnell, but actually, she is not" and called her "a fearless America First Warrior."

In a now-deleted tweet from June 5, Brooks asked Trump to re-endorse him. After Trump endorsed Britt, Brooks said, "Let’s just admit it: Trump endorses the wrong people sometimes."

Brooks has served in the U.S. House since 2011. Britt is CEO of the Alabama Business Council.

The runoff is June 21. In the May 24 primary, Britt received 45% to Brooks' 29%.

May 26, 2022

Primary results roundup

Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia held their primaries on Tuesday. Texas also held primary runoffs for races in which no candidate received a majority of the vote on March 1.

The big stories of the night: Kemp and Raffensperger win in Georgia, Britt and Brooks advance in Alabama

Georgia Governor: Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp defeated former U.S. Sen. David Perdue and three others. Kemp received 74% of the vote to Perdue's 22%. There will be no runoff since Kemp received more than 50% of the vote.

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R), Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), and Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) were among Kemp's endorsers. Perdue's endorsers included former President Donald Trump (R) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

The 2020 presidential election results were a subject of debate in the primary, as we've discussed in several issues of The Heart of the Primaries. Perdue said Kemp had not done enough as governor to investigate the results, while Kemp said he took all appropriate actions within his constitutional authority.

Kemp was first elected governor in 2018, defeating Stacey Abrams (D) 50% to 48%. Kemp served as Georgia's secretary of state from 2010 to 2018. Perdue served in the Senate from 2015 to 2021, when Jon Ossoff (D) defeated him in a runoff 50% to 49%.

Kemp will face Abrams again in the Nov. 8 general election. Forecasters rate the general election either as a Toss-up or Tilt Republican.

Georgia Secretary of State: Incumbent Brad Raffensperger defeated three other candidates. Raffensperger received 52% of the vote, and Jody Hice received 33%. Since Raffensperger won more than 50%, there won't be a runoff.

Reuters' Joseph Ax wrote that Raffensperger "has been one of Trump's most frequent targets ever since he refused, emphatically and publicly, to capitulate to the demands of the former president, his fellow Republican, to 'find' enough votes to overturn the results in Georgia's 2020 presidential vote." Trump endorsed Hice.

In January, Raffensperger said, "Congressman Hice, he's been in Congress for several years. He's never done a single piece of election reform legislation. Then he certified his own race with those same machines, the same ballots, and yet for President Trump, he said you couldn't trust that."

At a debate earlier this month, Hice said, "The 'big lie' in all of this is that there were no problems with this past election. This past election was an absolute disaster under the leadership of Brad Raffensperger." Hice objected to the counting of Georgia's electoral votes during the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.

Raffensperger was elected secretary of state in 2018. Hice was elected to the U.S. House in 2014.

Alabama U.S. Senate: Katie Britt and Mo Brooks advanced from a field of six candidates with 45% and 29% of the vote, respectively. As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, Britt and Brooks will compete in a June 21 runoff. Incumbent U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby (R), first elected in 1986, did not seek re-election.

Britt was Shelby's chief of staff and the president and CEO of the Alabama Business Council. Britt's campaign website said she was an "advocate for smaller government, modern job growth, constitutional liberties and greater opportunity." Sen. Shelby, Maggie's List, and the Value In Electing Women PAC endorsed Britt.

Brooks has represented Alabama's 5th Congressional District since 2011. Brooks' campaign ads have highlighted his speech at Trump's rally on Jan. 6, 2021, which preceded the U.S. Capitol breach. Brooks' endorsers included Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

Trump endorsed Brooks in April 2021 and withdrew that endorsement two months ago. Trump said, "Mo Brooks of Alabama made a horrible mistake recently when he went 'woke' and stated, referring to the 2020 Presidential Election Scam, 'Put that behind you, put that behind you.'"

In response, Brooks said, "I am the only proven America First candidate in this Senate race . . . I am the only candidate who fought voter fraud and election theft when it counted, between November 3 and January 6."

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

Arkansas U.S. Senate: Incumbent John Boozman defeated three other candidates with 58% of the vote. Jake Bequette finished second with 21%. Boozman was first elected to the Senate in 2010. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.
Georgia U.S. Senate: Herschel Walker defeated five other candidates with 68% of the vote. Gary Black finished second with 13%. Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) is running for re-election. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Walker. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

U.S. House

Alabama's 5th: Dale Strong and Casey Wardynski advanced from a field of six candidates. Strong received 45% of the vote and Wardynski received 23%. The runoff is on June 21. Incumbent Mo Brooks ran for U.S. Senate rather than for re-election. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.

State executives

Alabama Governor: Incumbent Kay Ivey defeated eight other candidates with 55% of the vote. Lynda Blanchard finished second with 19%. Ivey took office in 2017 following Gov. Robert Bentley's (R) resignation. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.
Alabama Secretary of State: Jim Zeigler and Wes Allen advanced to a June 21 runoff with 42% and 40% of the vote, respectively. Incumbent John Merrill (R) did not seek re-election.
Arkansas Secretary of State: Incumbent John Thurston defeated Eddie Joe Williams 72%-28%. Thurston was first elected to the position in 2018.
Texas Attorney General runoff: Incumbent Ken Paxton defeated George P. Bush 68%-32%. Paxton was first elected to the position in 2014.
Texas Railroad Commissioner runoff: Incumbent Wayne Christian defeated Sarah Stogner with 65% of the vote. Stogner received 35%. Christian was first elected in 2016.

Media analysis

As of Thursday morning, the results of Tuesday's primaries brought Trump's 2022 primary endorsement record to 94-7 (93%). Media commentary and analysis following the primaries focused on Trump's involvement.

RealClearPolitics' Susan Crabtree wrote that Trump's endorsement record differs for gubernatorial and other types of endorsements:

“

Millions of words were written and much airtime expended handicapping whether Georgia would show that Trump had molded the Republican Party in his own likeness. It didn’t happen Tuesday night, at least not in Georgia. Kemp maintained his early lead in the polls while earning the endorsement of former Vice President Mike Pence along the way and cruising to an easy victory – as did Raffensperger. Pence, largely written off by the media, looked more prescient, if not instantly relevant. In an appearance with Kemp on the eve of the election, Pence called a vote for Kemp a "deafening message" that the Republican Party is "the party of the future," stirring new headlines that he is positioning himself for a presidential run in 2024. … But Georgia is only one state. Trump has racked up a mixed record in contested primaries so far this year while wading into various contests to settle old scores or establish himself as a kingmaker. J.D. Vance, the Yale law school graduate and venture capitalist turned author, undoubtedly has Trump to thank for his win in Ohio’s GOP Senate primary. Likewise, Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor backed by Trump in Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate race, leads by just under 1,000 votes in a race against hedge fund executive David McCormick, which appears headed for a recount.

Trump has exercised less influence in gubernatorial races – with recent losses from candidates he endorsed in Nebraska and Idaho. He secured one solid win Tuesday night with his strong backing of Herschel Walker, the former University of Georgia football star and pro football running back who easily won his Republican Senate primary in the same state. … … Other Tuesday primaries also produced mixed results for Trump. Two-term Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who spearheaded a lawsuit that sought to overturn the 2020 election, got a boost from a Trump endorsement. On Tuesday, Paxton easily defeated Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the son of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and nephew of former President George W. Bush, in a GOP primary runoff.

The lopsided win signaled the triumph of Trumpism over the Bush dynasty. It was particularly notable considering that Paxton, who addressed the pro-Trump crowd in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, is under indictment for alleged securities fraud.

In Alabama, a candidate with Trump’s support before he rescinded it advanced in a Republican runoff to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby. Trump supported Rep. Mo Brooks, a staunch conservative congressman, but rescinded his support after Brooks suggested Republicans should look forward to 2022 and 2024 rather than focusing on Trump’s continued 2020 complaints that the election was stolen. Other prominent Republicans, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, have continued to back him.^[4]

”

The Hill's Max Greenwood framed Tuesday's results as a win for what he called the GOP establishment:

“

Tuesday was a good night for the non-Trump, establishment wing of the GOP.

The establishment saw its major victory in Kemp’s gubernatorial primary win. Figures like former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), and Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) all campaigned for the Georgia governor, pitting themselves up against Trump’s endorsement of Perdue.

Meanwhile, in Arkansas, Sen. John Boozman (R) fended off a number of right-wing challengers including former NFL player Jake Bequette. Boozman’s opponents hit him over his vote to affirm the 2020 election results and remarks that Trump had “some responsibility” for the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. However, Boozman had the support of Trump and former Trump officials like Huckabee Sanders.^[4]

”

Washington Examiner's Sarah Westwood said on Fox Business that the candidates who won in Georgia on Tuesday campaigned on Trump's populist stances and that voters did not reject the former president's ideas. Washington Examiner reported on Westwood's interview:

“

While incumbents Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R-GA) did not have former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Westwood told Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo Wednesday that their Republican primary victories are not rejections of "Trumpism."

"I don’t think that’s exactly what we’re seeing because the candidates that did [win], including Gov. Brian Kemp, still ran on the kinds of populist ideas that fueled Trump’s popularity, but what he didn’t do is focus on the 2020 election, and neither did Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who also avoided a runoff," Westwood said.

Westwood noted that Republican voters appear ready to move forward.

"They want to talk about plans for the economy, plans for keeping schools safe, and keeping leftist ideology out of the classrooms," she said. "Those are the sorts of things that, I think, are compelling Republican candidates to the forefront, and we saw that voters were not interested in talking about the past."^[4]

”

Recount on in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate primary

On Wednesday, Pennsylvania Acting Secretary of State Leigh Chapman ordered a recount in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate GOP primary. Mehmet Oz led David McCormick by fewer than 1,000 votes according to unofficial returns before the recount. State law requires a recount if the margin between the top two candidates is within 0.5% of all votes cast for a statewide office. That's roughly 6,700 votes in this primary, based on totals available Thursday morning.

The recount must be completed by June 7.

May 19, 2022

Primary results roundup

Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Oregon held primaries on May 17.

The big stories of the night: Expected Pennsylvania recount, Cawthorn defeated, and more

Pennsylvania Senate: As of Thursday morning, the race remained too close to call. Mehmet Oz led with 31.2% of the vote, while David McCormick received 31.1% and Kathy Barnette received 24.7%. Seven candidates ran in the primary. Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not run for re-election.

Under state law, any election with a vote margin within 0.5% is subject to an automatic recount. If applicable, the secretary of state must order the recount by May 26. It must start by June 1 and be completed by June 7.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Oz in April. Former candidate Sean Parnell, whom Trump initially endorsed before Parnell withdrew, endorsed McCormick. On May 12, Trump issued a statement opposing Barnette, who rose in recent polls. Three independent race forecasters rate the general election either Toss-up or Tilt Republican.

North Carolina's 11th: State Sen. Chuck Edwards defeated incumbent Madison Cawthorn and six others in the Republican primary for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Eight candidates were on the ballot. Edwards received 33.4% of the vote to Cawthorn's 31.9%. Cawthorn is the second U.S. representative to seek re-election and lose a primary this year. Rep. David McKinley (R) lost to Rep. Alexander Mooney (R) in West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District. The two ran in the same district following redistricting. In addition, Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) remained on the ballot in Ohio's 7th District after he unofficially withdrew. Max Miller won that primary. Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) of Oregon's 5th is trailing challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner as of Thursday morning and may become the third House member to lose a re-election bid.

Trump endorsed Cawthorn on March 31. Following Cawthorn's claims in late March 2022 that Washington lawmakers hold orgies and use cocaine, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) endorsed Edwards.

Three independent forecasters rate the general election either Safe or Solid Republican.

Pennsylvania Governor: State Sen. Doug Mastriano won against eight candidates. Mastriano received 44% of the vote. Former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta was second with 20%.== Mastriano campaigned on his opposition to COVID-19 measures and said he would defend election integrity. Mastriano said voting fraud was prevalent in the 2020 election. On Feb. 15, the U.S. House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach subpoenaed Mastriano, citing a November 2020 tweet and his presence outside the Capitol on the day of the breach. Trump endorsed Mastriano on May 14.

The 2022 primary featured the largest number of candidates in a Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial primary since at least 1978. Incumbent Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited. Forecasters view the general election as a Toss-up or Tilt or Lean Democratic.

Idaho Governor: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little defeated seven other candidates. Little received 53% of the vote to Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin's 32%.

According to the Idaho Press's Betsy Russell, a lieutenant governor hadn't challenged an incumbent governor in a primary in Idaho since 1938. Idaho is one of 17 states where the lieutenant governor is elected separately from the governor instead of on the same ticket.

Trump endorsed McGeachin in the primary. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund and the Idaho Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Little.

Twice in 2021, McGeachin issued executive orders related to COVID-19 measures while Little was out of state. The first banned mask mandates. The second expanded a prohibition against state entities requiring vaccination or testing. Little rescinded both orders when he returned to Idaho.

Independent forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican.

We've been tracking Trump's 2022 endorsements. The May 17 primary results (so far) bring Trump's primary endorsement record to 73 wins (96%) and 3 losses. Aside from McGeachin and Cawthorn, Nebraska gubernatorial endorsee Charles Herbster lost last week.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

North Carolina Senate: Ted Budd defeated 13 other candidates with 59% of the vote. Pat McCrory was second with 25%. Trump endorsed Budd, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed McCrory. Incumbent Richard Burr (R) did not run for re-election. Three forecasters rate the general election as Lean Republican.

U.S. House

North Carolina's 13th: Bo Hines defeated seven other candidates with 32% of the vote. DeVan Barbour IV finished second with 23%. The current incumbent, Rep. Ted Budd, ran for the GOP Senate nomination. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

Media analysis

The Washington Examiner's Kate Scanlon wrote about Mastriano's perceived gubernatorial general election prospects:

“

Trump offered his endorsement to Mastriano on Saturday after it became clear he was the front-runner in the race. The move was seen as a hedge, as Trump’s selection for the Senate, television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, was in a tight three-way race with businessman David McCormick and conservative commentator Kathy Barnette, who surged in polling in the final days of the race. Barnette and Mastriano ran campaigns in tandem, endorsing one another.

Some state Republicans were concerned Mastriano would hurt Republicans’ chances of winning not just the governor’s mansion but the Senate race and some congressional contests. They attempted to coalesce the field around former Rep. Lou Barletta, arguing he was better positioned to defeat Shapiro in November.^[4]

”

Politico's David Siders said Mastriano's prospects may be better than some observers think, referencing Trump's performance in the state:

“

Everything about Pennsylvania’s swing state electorate suggests Mastriano is a dead man walking.

Except for this: Lots of Republicans and Democrats alike felt exactly the same way about Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential primary, back when establishment Republicans were praying for anyone other than Trump to win the nomination and some of Hillary Clinton’s advisers were salivating over the prospect of running against Trump. The climate for Democrats in this midterm election year is no better than it was then. In fact, it’s worse. And Pennsylvania is a swing state for a reason. Trump only lost Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes in 2020. He won the state four years earlier.^[4]

”

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser described what he saw as both the strength and limitation of Trump's influence in Tuesday's primaries:

“

The [Senate primary in Pennsylvania] is proving another test of Trump's immense sway over the GOP. Sixteen months removed from the White House, the former president remains the most popular and influential politician in the Republican Party as he plays a kingmaker’s role in this year’s primaries and repeatedly flirts with another presidential run in 2024.

Trump was a winner in Pennsylvania’s GOP gubernatorial primary, as state Sen. Doug Mastriano bested a crowded field of contenders. Mastriano was already the polling front-runner when the former president endorsed him on Saturday. …

Trump was also a big winner in North Carolina’s Republican Senate primary – in another crucial race in a general election battleground where the GOP’s defending an open seat. …

Trump’s clout couldn’t pull controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorne over the top in the Republican primary in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, however. Even with Trump's backing in the final days heading into the primary, Cawthorne – who’s made plenty of enemies in the GOP in his short year and a half on Capitol Hill – came up short to state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who enjoyed the backing of many of the party’s establishment.

In Idaho, far-right Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin handily lost her bid to oust incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little. Trump endorsed McGeachin last autumn, but did little to actively support her.^[4]

”

May 12, 2022

Connecticut GOP endorses Themis Klarides for U.S. Senate

The Republican Party of Connecticut voted to endorse Themis Klarides for U.S. Senate at its convention Saturday and guaranteed two other candidates spots on the ballot.

Klarides received 57% of the delegate vote, followed by 23% for Leora Levy and 20% for Peter Lumaj. Candidates who received 15% or more of the delegate vote qualified automatically for the primary without needing to collect petitions.

The CT Mirror wrote that "Levy and Lumaj embrace Trump and oppose abortion and gun control, positions separating them from Klarides." Klarides served as state House minority leader from 2015 to 2021. Klarides voted in favor of a bill that introduced a new set of regulations on firearms following the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012. Klarides also supports a legal framework for access to abortion. Klarides said she voted for write-in candidate Lawrence Cafero rather than Donald Trump (R) for president in 2020.

The three convention-qualified candidates, as well as any who qualify via petition ahead of the June 7 filing deadline, will compete in an Aug. 9 primary. Incumbent Richard Blumenthal (D) is seeking re-election.

Klarides said, "Listen, we agree on way more than we disagree on, and it’s healthy to disagree on some things. If we agree on 70%, you need to focus on the candidate that has the best chance to win in November. I’m the only [Republican] candidate in the race that’s ever won an election. I’ve won 11 elections in a Democrat-leaning district."

Levy said, "I put a lot of my own money in, much more than my opponent has. … No matter what, I will let the Republican voters of the state of Connecticut decide who their candidate will be to go up against Dick Blumenthal."

Lumaj said, "I want to make sure that if I get to the U.S. Senate we get someone who has the backbone and the character and fortitude to defend the Constitution."

A Republican has not been elected to the U.S. Senate in Connecticut since 1982 or to the House since 2004. Independent forecasters currently rate the Senate general election Safe or Solid Democratic.

Super PAC switches gears from Ohio to Pennsylvania, Barnette rises in polls

The USA Freedom Fund spent on ads supporting Josh Mandel and opposing J.D. Vance, the winner in Ohio's U.S. Senate primary. The PAC is now spending in Pennsylvania opposing Mehmet Oz's Senate bid. Meanwhile, candidate Kathy Barnette has risen in polls in recent weeks, showing numbers on par with Oz and David McCormick.

The day after Vance's Ohio win, USA Freedom Fund released an ad saying Oz "glorif[ied] transgender kids" on his TV show.

Axios reported that "Mandel and David McCormick, Oz's top primary opponent, share a general consultant: the powerhouse Republican firm Axiom Strategies." Axiom worked on Ted Cruz's 2016 presidential campaign and Glenn Youngkin's 2021 Virginia gubernatorial campaign.

Former President Trump endorsed Vance in Ohio and Oz in Pennsylvania. Axios wrote, "During the Ohio race, the USA Freedom Fund was largely funded by the Club for Growth, which feuded with Donald Trump and his allies over its attacks on Vance." The Club endorsed Mandel in Ohio and has not endorsed in Pennsylvania's Senate race. A Club representative said the group was not involved with USA Freedom Fund's Pennsylvania effort.

In several recent polls, Barnette was effectively tied with Oz and McCormick. A Trafalgar poll from early May showed Oz with 25%, Barnette with 23%, and McCormick with 22%. The margin of error was +/- 3.0 percentage points.

The primary is May 17.

May 5, 2022

May 3 primary results roundup

Ohio and Indiana held primary elections on Tuesday. Indiana's ballot included state legislative elections, while Ohio's did not, as redistricting is still underway. Below, you'll find results from marquee GOP primaries, takeaways, and info on incumbents who lost primaries.

The big story of the night: Vance wins U.S. Senate primary in Ohio

Ohio U.S. Senate: J.D. Vance won Ohio's U.S. Senate primary with 32% of the vote. Josh Mandel was second with 24%, and Matt Dolan finished third with 23%. Four other candidates ran.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Vance in mid-April. Independent polling available before that, from late February and early March, showed Mandel and Mike Gibbons leading. Four of the five candidates with the most votes—except Dolan—campaigned on connections to and support for Trump.

Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) is retiring.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

Indiana's 9th: In the state's only open House district, Erin Houchin defeated eight other candidates with 37% of the vote. Mike Sodrel was second with 26%. Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth (R) didn't seek re-election. Three forecasters rate the district Safe or Solid Republican.
Ohio's 9th: J.R. Majewski won with 36% of the vote. Craig Riedel was second with 31%. Incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) was first elected in 1982 and is seeking re-election. This is a Toss-up district in race ratings.
Ohio's 13th: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert defeated six other candidates with 29% of the vote. Gregory Wheeler was second with 23%. Gilbert worked on Trump's 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. Incumbent Tim Ryan (D) is running for U.S. Senate. This is a Toss-up or Tilt Republican district in ratings.

State executive

Ohio Governor: Incumbent Mike DeWine won with 48%. Jim Renacci was second with 28%. DeWine's response to the COVID-19 pandemic was an issue in the race. Renacci said DeWine overreacted with restrictions, while DeWine said he acted in the best interest of Ohioans.
Ohio Secretary of State: Incumbent Frank LaRose defeated John Adams 65% to 35%.

Defeated incumbents

U.S. Rep. Bob Gibbs (OH-07) was the only Republican congressional incumbent to (technically) lose in Tuesday's primaries. Gibbs announced on April 6 that he wasn't running for re-election. But because Gibbs already qualified, he remained on the primary ballot.

In Indiana, six GOP state legislators—five representatives and one senator—lost primaries.

Three Republican incumbents—one in the Indiana Senate and two in the Indiana House—were defeated in incumbent-on-incumbent primaries resulting from redistricting.
Three Republican incumbents in the state House lost to non-incumbent challengers.

In 2020, one Indiana GOP legislator—a state representative—lost in a primary. In 2018, two GOP incumbents—a state senator and a representative—lost primaries.

The following shows data from 14 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from two states—Texas and Indiana—where state legislative elections have taken place.

Media analysis

Media analysis following the May 3 GOP primaries has largely focused on Trump's influence in Ohio. We present a few perspectives on that below, in addition to a takeaway from Indiana's state legislative races.

Politico's David Siders and Adam Wren said Vance's victory was a victory for Trump and that Dolan's performance did not suggest good prospects for non-Trump-aligned candidates in 2024:

“

People in Trump’s orbit are preparing for his dominion over the GOP to take a hit in primaries scheduled for later this month. The candidates he’s supporting for governor in Georgia and Idaho are both running far behind more establishment-minded incumbents, and several other Trump-endorsed candidates are in toss-up races. Trump isn’t likely to win them all.

But J.D. Vance’s victory in the Ohio Senate primary on Tuesday was an unmistakable victory for Trump. Unlike in the Texas primaries, where the former president backed a raft of successful Republicans — but mostly made safe choices — Trump took a risk on Vance. … With Vance, Mandel, Timken and Gibbons clobbering each other over who was the Trumpiest, Dolan, who distanced himself from Trump, appeared to have space open to him with a non-MAGA hardliner crowd. … But he didn’t win. Or even come close. …

Dolan isn’t a pure test of the anti-Trump Republican. He was a supporter of Trump, after all, voting twice for the former president. But it’s the closest thing we’ve seen this election cycle to a different prototype for 2024 — and it ended poorly for the candidate tied least tightly to Trump.^[4]

”

CNN said that Ohio's Senate primary result attests to Trump's endorsement power in open primaries:

“

Vance's victory underscored the former President's role as the kingmaker in the Republican Party. Though it's not clear whether Trump will succeed in his effort to oust incumbent Republicans he believes have wronged him, Ohio's results demonstrated that in open-seat races, his endorsement might be the most important factor.^[4]

”

ABC News' Brittany Shepherd said DeWine's win was slightly unfavorable for Trump:

“

Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, who rose in popularity after imposing more aggressive coronavirus restrictions in his state, won the Republican bid for reelection and defeated Trump-affiliated candidate Jim Renacci (who was endorsed by Trump in 2018, when Renacci ran and lost a Senate bid.) DeWine's win means a slight loss for the former president, who suggested DeWine needed to be primaried for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Even though Trump steered clear of a formal endorsement, his apparent disdain for the incumbent governor is no secret and his opponents differed little from Trump in campaign talking points, which calls into question the lasting power of Trump's influence.^[4]

”

The Associated Press' Tom Davies and Casey Smith said Indiana state legislative candidates frustrated over COVID-19 restrictions and other issues performed poorly on Tuesday:

“

Frustrated Indiana conservatives fell short in most primary races Tuesday in their drive to push the Republican-controlled state Legislature further to the right, and two of the movement’s leaders lost their reelection bids.

The roughly two dozen so-called liberty candidates saw only a few victories in Republican legislative races across the state, with one defeating a 10-term incumbent in northern Indiana and two others winning nominations for GOP-leaning open seats.

A few races remained uncalled late Tuesday, but more than 10 incumbent lawmakers overcame challenges from candidates who argued that the Legislature hasn’t been aggressive enough in attempting to ban abortion, enhancing gun rights and overturning COVID-19 restrictions that were ordered by Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb.^[4]

”

April 28, 2022

Ohio U.S. Senate updates: Former President Trump appears at Vance rally, Club for Growth releases anti-Vance ad

As former President Donald Trump (R) increases his presence in support of Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance, the Club for Growth has continued its anti-Vance campaign with a new ad.

Trump appeared at a rally for Vance in Delaware, Ohio, on April 23, saying, "J.D. is really an America First warrior. He believes so much in making our country great again, and he’s going to do a job on these horrible people that are running against him."

Vance is one of seven Republicans seeking the GOP nomination. The current incumbent, Sen. Rob Portman (R), is retiring. Trump endorsed Vance on April 15. The former president's son, Donald Trump Jr., appeared with Vance at another rally in Toledo, Ohio, on April 25.

After Trump endorsed Vance, the Club for Growth super PAC bought airtime for a new ad that includes Vance’s past criticism of Trump. Politico reported on April 22 that Club for Growth president David McIntosh "had warned Trump that the Club for Growth would continue to take out television ads attacking Vance for his past anti-Trump comments" before Trump's endorsement. Club for Growth supports Josh Mandel in the primary.

Columbiana County Republican Party chairman Dave Johnson said of Trump's endorsement, "Will it be enough to put [Vance] over the victory line? I don’t know the answer to that question." Johnson supports Jane Timken in the primary.

A Fox News poll conducted April 20-24 showed Vance at 23%, Mandel at 18%, and Gibbons at 13%. The poll's margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points.

Two independent race observers view the general election as Solid or Likely Republican. The Cook Political Report sees the general election as Lean Republican.

April 21, 2022

Trump endorses Vance in Ohio U.S. Senate primary

On April 15, former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed author J.D. Vance in the May 3 Senate Republican primary. Vance, one of seven GOP primary candidates, will appear at a rally with Trump on April 23.

Trump said, "Like some others, J.D. Vance may have said some not so great things about me in the past, but he gets it now, and I have seen that in spades. He is our best chance for victory in what could be a very tough race."

Vance was critical of Trump in 2016 and later supported him. Vance said the endorsement "sends a bit of a signal to all of the people who've heard millions of dollars in negative advertising that I'm somehow anti-Trump. … I think it sort of sticks a fork in that."

Vance and candidates Josh Mandel, Jane Timken, and Mike Gibbons have emphasized connections to and support for Trump in their campaigns. Politico's Alex Isenstadt wrote in February that "[t]he Senate race in Ohio is a high-profile example of how Trump is dominating Republican down-ballot primaries, and how his support is seen as make-or-break for those seeking the party’s nomination."

As media outlets began reporting that Trump planned to endorse Vance, several dozen GOP county chairs and state committee members urged Trump not to do it, saying in a letter that Vance "referred to your supporters as ‘racists’ and proudly voted for Evan McMullin in 2016."

Timken said, "Ohio voters know that J.D. Vance was a 'never Trumper'. And, more importantly, he said some pretty terrible things about the Trump voter, that they were racist or uneducated."

Timken and Mandel said they looked forward to Trump's endorsement in the general election.

Gibbons said, "While I would have loved the endorsement, I continue to be in a strong position in this race."

And Matt Dolan said Gibbons, Mandel, Timken, and Vance "embraced lies and undermined the Constitution to go all-in for one endorsement."

RealClearPolitics’ average of polls conducted from late February to mid-April showed Mandel at 21%, Gibbons at 19%, Vance at 14%, and Dolan and Timken each at 8%. A Trafalgar Group poll conducted April 13-14, just before Trump issued his endorsement, showed Mandel at 28%, Vance at 23%, and Gibbons at 14%. The Trafalgar poll's margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points.

Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman’s (R) is retiring. Portman endorsed Timken.

Former EPA administrator Scott Pruitt files for Oklahoma special U.S. Senate election

Former Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Scott Pruitt filed for the special Senate Republican primary. Incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) is resigning effective Jan. 3, 2023.

More than a dozen Republicans are running, including state Sen. Nathan Dahm, Inhofe’s former chief of staff Luke Holland, U.S. Rep. Markwayne Mullin, and former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon.

Inhofe endorsed Holland in his retirement announcement.

Michael Crespin, director of the Carl Albert Congressional Research & Studies Center at the University of Oklahoma, said Pruitt has high name recognition in the state and, "I don’t know if all of his name recognition will be positive," referring to investigations into Pruitt while he led the EPA.

Pruitt served as head of the EPA from February 2017 to July 2018. The EPA’s Office of Inspector General, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, and the Government Accountability Office conducted several investigations, with most of the inquiries focused on Pruitt’s travel and spending habits while in office. Pruitt resigned, saying that "the unrelenting attacks on me personally, my family, are unprecedented and have taken a sizable toll on all of us."

In an Associated Press interview, Pruitt said the criticism of his tenure at the EPA came from him heading what he called the "Holy Grail of the American left." Pruitt said, "I think Oklahomans know when the New York Times and CNN and MSNBC and those places are against you, Oklahomans are for you."

Pruitt served as Oklahoma's attorney general from 2011 to 2017 and as a member of the state Senate from 1999 to 2007.

Pruitt is one of several former Trump administration officials running for Congress in 2022. Former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is running in Montana’s 1st Congressional District. Former Trump advisor Max Miller is running in Ohio’s 7th. And former White House Assistant Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt is running in New Hampshire’s 1st.

The special primary is set for June 28. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the top two finishers head to a runoff on Aug. 23.

April 14, 2022

Trump endorses Oz in Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary

On April 9, former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Mehmet Oz in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. Oz is one of seven candidates running in the May 17 Republican primary. Oz and David McCormick have led in the polls and received the most endorsements.

In September 2021, Trump endorsed Sean Parnell in the primary. Parnell dropped out of the primary after losing a custody battle in November and endorsed McCormick in January.

Incumbent Pat Toomey (R) is not running for re-election. Toomey was one of seven Republican senators who voted "guilty" at Trump's impeachment trial following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach.

Three independent forecasters rate the general election either Toss-up or Tilt Republican. President Joe Biden (D) won the state by 1.2 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. In 2016, Toomey won re-election by 1.5 percentage points and Trump won the presidential election by 0.7 points. The state's other U.S. Senator, Bob Casey Jr. (D), won re-election by 13 percentage points in 2018.

April 7, 2022

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidates participate in forums

Six Republican primary candidates for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat participated in a forum on April 2 at the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference. Kathy Barnette, Jeff Bartos, George Bochetto, Sean Gale, Mehmet Oz, and Carla Sands attended. The race’s seventh candidate—David McCormick—did not participate. A campaign representative said he was holding other events on that date.

PennLive.com's Charles Thompson wrote, "All the candidates said they would embrace a Trump endorsement; oppose [U.S. Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown] Jackson’s confirmation; would support either greater regulation or the break-up of Big Tech companies like Facebook and Twitter as a matter of protecting free speech; and support tougher policies against China, including a strong defense of Taiwan."

An Emerson College poll of 372 likely Republican primary voters conducted from March 26 through 28 showed 50% were undecided. David McCormick and Mehmet Oz both had 14%. Barnette and Sands received 6% support each, and Bartos was fifth with 5%. The margin of error was +/- 5 percentage points.

Last week, McCormick and Oz participated in a forum together for the first time. The Associated Press' Marc Levy wrote, "Energy was a constant theme … since Pennsylvania is the nation's No. 2 natural gas-producing state" and that Oz "absorbed the brunt of criticism from rivals." McCormick said that Oz has argued for increased fracking regulations, which Oz said was untrue.

Incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is not seeking re-election. In 2016, Toomey defeated Katie McGinty (D) 49% to 47% to win a second term.

Pennsylvania is one of two states holding a Senate election in 2022 with a GOP incumbent that Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election. And it's one of three Senate election states with one Democratic and one Republican senator. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) holds Pennsylvania's other Senate seat.

The primary is May 17.

Ted Cruz endorses Josh Mandel in Ohio Senate primary

On April 4, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) endorsed Josh Mandel in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio.

Cruz said, "A United States Marine, Josh is a proven fighter for our American way of life, a champion for the unborn, and a stalwart advocate for our religious liberties." U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) and U.S. Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.) have also endorsed Mandel.

A number of other Republican members of Congress have endorsed candidates. Retiring incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (Ohio) endorsed Jane Timken, as did Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), and Deb Fischer (Neb.) and Reps. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) and Bob Gibbs (Ohio). Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) endorsed Mike Gibbons. Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.) and Reps. Jim Banks (Ind.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (N.C.) endorsed J.D. Vance.

An exchange between Gibbons and Mandel at a March 18 debate drew heightened attention to the primary. Gibbons said Mandel never worked in the private sector. Mandel rose from his seat to stand in front of Gibbons and said he had done “[t]wo tours in Iraq, don’t tell me I haven’t worked." Gibbons said, "You don’t know squat," and Mandel said, "Watch what happens."

Gibbons' campaign released a statement saying Mandel "doesn’t have the temperament, experience, or fortitude to be a U.S. Senator and Ohio voters got a first-hand look at just how unprepared Josh Mandel has become and that will be reflected on the ballot on May 3."

On March 26, Mandel released an ad in which a Gold Star mother says, "Mike Gibbons has the nerve to say military service doesn’t count as real work."

Vance said Gibbons and Mandel "completely made clowns of themselves."

Timken criticized the debate moment along with a comment Gibbons had made about her, saying she barely worked before serving as state GOP chair. Timken said, "Friday and Monday night’s antics, the only person who really won was Tim Ryan. … What happens if Mike Gibbons is the nominee? The Democrats will gladly pour 50 million dollars into the race to defeat him and he has given them much fodder."

The primary is set for May 3. Along with Pennsylvania, Ohio is one of the three states with a Senate election this year that has one Republican and one Democratic senator—Sherrod Brown (D) holds the state's other U.S. Senate seat.

March 24, 2022

Trump rescinds Brooks endorsement in Alabama U.S. Senate primary

On March 23, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Mo Brooks in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Alabama, saying Brooks "made a horrible mistake recently when he went 'woke' and stated, referring to the 2020 Presidential Election Scam, 'Put that behind you, put that behind you.'"

Brooks was the first member of Congress to vote against certifying the 2020 election. He was booed at a rally in August 2021 after telling the crowd they should move past the 2020 election.

On March 15, Trump said he was disappointed with Brooks' remarks at the August rally. On March 16, Brooks released a campaign ad highlighting his speech at Trump's rally on Jan. 6, 2021, and Trump's endorsement. Brooks said in an interview with AL.com the same day that Trump's comments surprised him and that "[Trump] wants me to remove Joe Biden from office so he can be president. … But the law doesn't permit that."

Trump said he'd make a new endorsement before the May 24 primary. Five other Republicans are running.

The Senate primaries with the most satellite spending

Decision Desk HQ's March 21 newsletter broke down independent expenditures in U.S. Senate primaries by top states, spenders, and supported or opposed candidates. Derek Willis wrote,

“

Outside spending in Senate primaries has already passed $68 million, well above the $48 million spent on Senate primaries at this point in the 2020 cycle. …

Republican races have so far brought in the bulk of independent expenditures reported to the Federal Election Commission: of the $68 million, just $2.7 million has been spent supporting or criticizing Democratic candidates.^[4]

”

As of March 18, four states saw satellite spending of more than $10 million on Senate primaries: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Alabama, and North Carolina. Republican incumbents are retiring in all four states. In Arizona, the state that's seen the fifth-highest satellite spending, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is seeking re-election.

Seventeen PACs spent more than $1 million on Senate primaries—15 on Republican primaries (the Democratic PACs on the list, Moveon.org Political Action and Senate Majority PAC, had the 8th- and 16th-highest spending totals, respectively).

Club for Growth Action spent the most at more than $14 million as of March 18. The group has spent on primaries in North Carolina, where it endorsed Ted Budd, and Ohio, where it endorsed Josh Mandel and has released ads opposing J.D. Vance and Jane Timken.

The second-highest spender, Honor Pennsylvania, Inc., supports David McCormick in Pennsylvania. The group has released ads opposing Mehmet Oz and has spent $8.6 million.

Protect Ohio Values, the only other PAC to have spent more than $5 million, supports Vance in Ohio. Oz, Vance, and Budd are the top three subjects of satellite spending. Also on the list are Brooks in Alabama and Blake Masters in Arizona.

Decision Desk HQ will break down satellite spending in House races next week.

March 17, 2022

Oklahoma Supreme Court will hear case about delaying Senate special election

The Oklahoma Supreme Court will hear arguments on March 23 in a case seeking to delay the U.S. Senate special election in Oklahoma. Attorney Stephen Jones alleges in the lawsuit that the state would violate the 17th Amendment by holding the special election before Sen. Jim Inhofe's resignation is effective on Jan. 3, 2023. Jones represented Timothy McVeigh in the Oklahoma City bombing trial.

Inhofe (R) announced in what he called an "irrevocable pledge" on Feb. 28 that he'll retire in January, four years before his term expires. According to state law, "a vacancy or irrevocable resignation" for Senate taking place on or before March 1 in an even-numbered year is to be filled by special election at the time of the next regularly scheduled statewide election. The special primary and general elections for Inhofe's seat are set for the same dates as this year's regular elections.

The 17th Amendment states, "When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies."

Joe Thai, a constitutional law professor at the University of Oklahoma Law School, said, "If you look at the text of the 17t [sic] Amendment, it talks about vacancies in the present tense. … Jones has an argument there; that the legislature is getting ahead of the ball."

James Davenport, a Rose State College political science professor, said the case hinges on whether an irrevocable resignation creates a vacancy: "The court would have to find something that would be fairly clear in striking that process (the irrevocable resignation) down. … Additionally, the court would need to make a decision quickly, they don’t have a whole lot of time."

The filing deadline is currently set for April 15 and the special primary for June 28.

March 10, 2022

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey won't run for U.S. Senate

On March 3, Gov. Doug Ducey (R) told donors he won't run for Senate this year. So far, there are nine candidates in the Aug. 2 Republican primary. The filing deadline is April 4.

In the letter, Ducey wrote, "Right now I have the job I want, and my intention is to close my years of service to Arizona with a very productive final legislative session AND to help elect Republican governors across the country in my role as chairman of the Republican Governors Association."

Ducey also said, "We have a strong field of candidates in Arizona and I will be actively supporting our nominee -- and perhaps weighing in before the primary."

According to CNN, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell "spent months working aggressively to persuade Ducey to mount a Senate campaign, under the belief that he would be the strongest candidate to try and win back the seat of Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat."

The primary field includes venture capitalist Blake Masters, who Club for Growth PAC and investor Peter Thiel endorsed; former solar energy executive Jim Lamon, whose endorsers include the National Border Patrol Council and Conservative Political Action Coalition; and Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who Fox anchor Mark Levin endorsed.

Trump criticized Ducey in a Save America PAC statement last month: "MAGA will never accept RINO Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona running for the U.S. Senate." Trump and Ducey clashed over Ducey's certification of the state's 2020 presidential election results.

March 3, 2022

U.S. Senate candidates in N.C. disagree on Senate leadership

Veteran Marjorie K. Eastman, former Gov. Pat McCrory, and former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker participated in the first U.S. Senate GOP primary debate in North Carolina on Feb. 26. Walker and McCrory disagreed on the topic of Senate leadership.

The issue arose when Walker was discussing an 11-point plan Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) released that Scott said the GOP should adopt as its agenda.

Walker said, "I applaud Sen. Rick Scott. … In fact, I think he needs to be the majority leader instead of Mitch McConnell moving forward. … How are you going to change something unless you put new leadership into the pipeline?"

McCrory said, "McConnell brought a change in the Supreme Court working with Donald Trump that we desperately needed, and without his legislative skills, it wouldn't have happened."

Eastman didn't say who she'd support for leader.

McConnell, currently Senate minority leader, has said he will not release a GOP agenda ahead of the midterms. On March 1, McConnell said, "If we’re fortunate enough to have the majority next year, I’ll be the majority leader. I’ll decide in consultation with my members what to put on the floor."

Scott, for his part, has said he would support McConnell for majority leader. Scott chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee and said he released the plan separate from that work. In addition to this session of Congress, McConnell was minority leader from 2007 to 2015 and majority leader from 2015 to 2021.

Rep. Tedd Budd, who Trump endorsed in the Senate primary in North Carolina, was invited to the debate but did not attend. His campaign previously said he wouldn't participate in debates until the filing deadline passed.

More than a dozen candidates are running in the primary so far. Eastman, Benjamin Griffiths, and Lichia Sibhatu filled out Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey—click on their names to read their responses. The primary is scheduled for May 17.

Sen. Richard Burr (R) isn't seeking re-election. He was one of three GOP senators up for re-election this year who voted guilty in Trump's 2021 impeachment trial.

Inhofe announces U.S. Senate retirement, triggering special election

U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) announced he'll retire effective Jan. 3, 2023, four years before his term expires. Inhofe is one of seven senators—six Republicans and one Democrat—to announce retirements at the end of the 117th Congress.

Under state law, a special election to fill the remainder of Inhofe’s term will take place on Nov. 8, at the same time as the regularly scheduled midterm elections. The special primary election is expected to take place on June 28 with a runoff election on Aug. 23 if no candidate wins a majority of the vote.

Michael Crespin, the director of the Carl Albert Congressional Research & Studies Center at the University of Oklahoma, said, "I expect the primary to be very crowded. … It’s pretty rare for a U.S. Senate seat to open up." Inhofe was first elected in 1994.

Luke Holland, U.S. Rep Markwayne Mullin, and state Sen. Nathan Dahm announced their candidacies shortly after Inhofe's announcement.

Holland has served as Inhofe’s chief of staff since 2017. Holland said he shares Inhofe’s policy positions and would continue Inhofe’s legacy. Inhofe endorsed Holland in his resignation letter, saying, "[Holland] is a fierce conservative and the best person to continue my legacy of a strong national defense and investment in local infrastructure."

Mullin said in a tweet, "We need an America First conservative fighting for Oklahoma in the Senate." Mullin has represented Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District since 2013.

Dahm, who represents District 33 in the Oklahoma State Senate, said in a post on his campaign Facebook page, "We continue to run on my record as THE proven Republican fighter." Dahm was previously challenging Sen. James Lankford in the GOP primary for the state's regularly scheduled Senate election this year.

Inhofe won a fifth term after defeating Abby Broyles (D) 63% to 33% in 2020. Oklahoma hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990, and the winner of the Republican primary is expected to have an advantage in the special general election.

February 24, 2022

U.S. Sen. Rob Portman endorses Jane Timken in Ohio's Senate primary

On Feb. 16, retiring U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) endorsed former state Republican Party Chair Jane Timken in the GOP Senate primary. Portman tweeted, "I am confident in @JaneTimkenOH’s ability to win both the primary and the general elections, ensuring that this Senate seat remains Republican with a 50-50 Senate, and so much at stake."

On Feb. 22, U.S. Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Shelley Moore-Capito (R-W.Va.), and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) also endorsed Timken.

Several other GOP primary candidates have received senators' endorsements. Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) endorsed former state Treasurer Josh Mandel. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) backed businessman Mike Gibbons. And Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) endorsed author J.D. Vance.

A Trafalgar Group poll conducted earlier this month of 1,085 likely primary voters showed Mandel with 21% support, Gibbons with 16%, Vance with 14%, and Timken and Matt Dolan each with 10%. Twenty-five percent were undecided. The margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points.

Three independent forecasters rate the 2022 election Lean, Likely, or Solid Republican. The primary is set for May 3.

February 17, 2022

Sen. Josh Hawley endorses Vicky Hartzler for Missouri’s other Senate seat

U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) endorsed U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler in the GOP U.S. Senate primary. Incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) isn't seeking re-election.

On Feb. 12, before the Republican Lincoln Days forum that included four GOP primary candidates, Hawley said that Hartzler "is unafraid to stand up for conservative values, and she is exactly who Missouri needs in the U.S. Senate."

Attorney Mark McCloskey said after the forum, "It exemplifies why I’m in the race. Having Josh Hawley endorse Vicky Hartzler is just more evidence of machine politics … politics as usual." U.S. Rep. Billy Long, who also participated in the forum, criticized Hartzler at the end of the event. According to the Missouri Times' Kaitlyn Schallhorn, Long "questioned Hartzler’s conservative voting record, comparing it to Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney."

Nine candidates are running so far.

On Feb. 16, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) endorsed Attorney General Eric Schmitt in the Senate primary.

According to the most recent Federal Election Commission filings, five Missouri Republican U.S. Senate candidates had raised more than $500,000 as of Dec. 31: Schmitt ($2.4 million), Hartzler ($1.9 million), former Gov. Eric Greitens ($1.5 million), State Sen. Dave Schatz ($1.2 million), and McCloskey ($940,000).

The candidate filing deadline is March 31, and the primary is set for Aug. 2.

February 10, 2022

Beyond endorsements, Trump works to shape candidate fields

Last week, Bernie Moreno dropped out of Ohio's GOP primary for Senate citing a conversation with Trump. This week, Vernon Jones switched from Georgia's gubernatorial race to a U.S. House bid after a meeting with Trump.

Moreno said, "After talking to President Trump we both agreed this race has too many Trump candidates and could cost the MAGA movement a conservative seat." Trump has not endorsed in the May 3 primary, which includes businessman Mike Gibbons, former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, former state party chair Jane Timken, and author J.D. Vance.

Upon exiting Georgia's gubernatorial primary, Jones endorsed David Perdue. Trump had already endorsed Perdue against incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp. CNN reported that Trump met with Jones and offered "his endorsement in a congressional contest if Jones agrees to exit the GOP primary for governor to instead run for Congress, according to two people familiar with the matter." This week, Trump endorsed Jones' bid for the 10th Congressional District. Georgia's primary is set for May 24.

Last week, we wrote that former Rep. Mark Walker announced he'd stay in the Senate race in North Carolina after his campaign said Trump offered to endorse him if he switched to a House bid. Trump endorsed Ted Budd in the May 17 Senate primary.

Pennsylvania State Committee votes not to endorse any statewide candidate at winter meeting

The Pennsylvania Republican State Committee did not endorse any candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, or U.S. Senate at its winter meeting on Feb. 5. Thirteen candidates have announced GOP gubernatorial primary bids and 13 have declared for the Senate primary. Both elections are open—Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited and Sen. Pat Toomey (R) isn't running for re-election.

Pennlive.com's Jan Murphy wrote that the last time the Republican Party did not endorse a gubernatorial candidate was "in 1978 when the party had a pool of strong candidates for an open governor’s seat. Voters ended up electing Dick Thornburgh as the party nominee in the primary and he went on to win the governorship that November."

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari wrote, "Several Pennsylvania Republicans grumbled privately that the failure to wrangle a recommendation to voters, in such a critical year for the GOP and with so many candidates battling for the nominations, reflected the diminishing power of the state party and its leadership."

Vince Matteo, chairman of the Lycoming County Republican Party, said, "I think we have some really good candidates. I haven’t made up my mind personally in any one of the three races. Why should the party anoint one, if you will?"

As we wrote in last week's Democratic issue of The Heart of the Primaries, the state Democratic Party did not endorse in the Senate race as no candidate reached the required two-thirds vote threshold at the party meeting. The party endorsed Josh Shapiro in the gubernatorial primary.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the Senate and gubernatorial elections Toss-ups.

The filing deadline for major party candidates in Pennsylvania is March 8, and primary elections are scheduled for May 17.

February 3, 2022

Former Rep. Mark Walker staying in Senate race after Trump offers to endorse a Walker House campaign

On Jan. 27, former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker announced he is staying in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race instead of running for the U.S. House. The Associated Press wrote that "Walker’s campaign said he was offered Trump's endorsement if he ran for a House seat in central North Carolina."

Walker said, "When we stepped away from Congress, it was in our heart to run across North Carolina to be able to take what we’ve been able to do in central North Carolina and take it across the state for the U.S. Senate."

Former President Donald Trump endorsed another Senate candidate, Rep. Ted Budd, in June. The Associated Press said this "add[s] challenges for Walker, a former Baptist minister, to win over Christian conservatives who are also loyal to the former president."

At least 12 others are running in the Republican Senate primary. Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) is retiring. Budd leads the Republican field in fundraising with $3.1 million through December, followed by former Gov. Pat McCrory with $3.0 million and Walker with $1.6 million.

Burr was first elected in 2004 and most recently defeated Deborah Ross (D) 51% to 45% in 2016. In the state's 2020 Senate election, Thom Tillis (R) defeated Cal Cunningham (D) 49% to 47%.

North Carolina’s primaries are scheduled for May 17.

January 27, 2022

Colorado Senate candidate O’Dea will submit petitions to make primary ballot

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Joe O’Dea announced on Jan. 19 that he plans to submit petitions to make the primary ballot instead of going through the party’s nominating assembly. Colorado provides major party candidates those two paths to the primary election ballot.

At the party assembly, a candidate must receive 30% of delegates' votes to be listed on the ballot. If no candidate receives 30%, a second vote is taken. If no candidate receives 30% in that vote, the top two vote-getters appear on the ballot.

U.S. Senate primary candidates taking the petition path must collect 1,500 signatures from registered primary voters in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. A candidate who takes the assembly path and does not win at least 10% of the vote cannot use the petition route to get on the same party's primary ballot.

O’Dea is one of eight Republicans seeking the GOP nomination. Incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is running for re-election. O’Dea is so far the only GOP candidate seeking to make the ballot via petition, which must be filed with the secretary of state’s office by March 15. The Republican Party’s nominating assembly is April 9.

Fellow Republican Senate candidate Gino Campana wrote, "Joe Odea is petitioning onto the ballot because it's painfully obvious he is way too liberal to win at the convention. … I have built a grassroots campaign supported by President Trump’s advisors, and I will use this energy to win at the convention."

O’Dea’s campaign representative said, "Gino can stick his dishonest insults in his very own tax-and-spend-liberal ear. … Joe’s going to compete for every vote in every corner of the state — Republican insiders, Republican outsiders, and all the many Coloradans who are tired of Joe Biden and Michael Bennet’s failed leadership."

The primary is set for June 28.

Ted Cruz campaigns with David McCormick in Pennsylvania

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) joined Republican Senate primary candidate David McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, at a campaign rally on Jan. 25. As we wrote last week, McCormick also has former Republican primary candidate Sean Parnell's support.

Currently, Cruz is the only GOP senator to make an endorsement in the primary. City & State Pennsylvania has tracked endorsements from several U.S. representatives, state legislators, local officials, and more for candidates Kathy Barnette, Jeff Bartos, McCormick, Mehmet Oz, and Carla Sands. Check the list out here.

Last week, we also wrote about ad spending from candidates and satellite groups. Politico wrote this week, "Republican candidates and groups supporting them spent and reserved a combined $15.3 million on TV ads, according to our pals at AdImpact. Of that total, about $3.5 million was reserved by outside GOP groups."

Incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is retiring. The primary is scheduled for May 17.

January 20, 2022

McCormick enters Senate primary in PA, candidates and satellite groups spend millions on ads

David McCormick, a former George W. Bush administration treasury official and hedge fund CEO, officially entered Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race on Jan. 13. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Julian Routh, McCormick "has the support of various state party stalwarts and veterans of [former President Donald Trump]’s administration advising his campaign."

Sean Parnell, who withdrew from the race in November, endorsed McCormick. Parnell said, "I have been watching and hoping a candidate would emerge—someone who could give me total confidence that they will fight for Pennsylvanians and never back down to the Woke mob, but that just hasn't happened, until now." Trump endorsed Parnell in September.

American Leadership Action, a super PAC supporting Mehmet Oz’s campaign, spent around $550,000 on ads against McCormick in the week following his announcement. The super PAC Honor Pennsylvania, which supports McCormick, is spending more than $900,000 on an ad against Oz. The super PAC Jobs For Our Future is spending $2 million on an ad opposing McCormick and Oz and supporting Jeff Bartos.

According to The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari, Oz will spend close to $5 million on ads running through February, McCormick has spent $3 million, and former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands has spent $2 million.

Tamari wrote, "The blasts of cash — four months before the primary — show the impact of the Republican candidates’ immense personal wealth, and signal an extraordinarily expensive and drawn-out campaign, one that could saturate (and maybe overwhelm) viewers with competing information. It could also potentially squeeze candidates in both parties with less to spend. In a state as large as Pennsylvania, covered by more than a half-dozen media markets, television advertising is crucial for reaching a mass of voters, though it isn’t always decisive."

Incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is not running for re-election. The filing deadline is March 8 and the primary is scheduled for May 17.

Club for Growth shifts opposition focus in Ohio U.S. Senate primary

Club for Growth, which describes itself as the "leading free-enterprise advocacy group in the nation," has a new focus in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio—former state Republican Party Chairwoman Jane Timken. The group said it plans to spend $750,000 on TV and digital ads opposing Timken into the second week of February. Club for Growth endorsed state Treasurer Josh Mandel last March.

In October, Club for Growth Action spent nearly $500,000 on TV and radio ads criticizing J.D. Vance, one of 14 candidates vying for the Republican nomination. Club for Growth released a poll it commissioned in early January that showed Vance in fourth place with 10% behind Mike Gibbons (14%), Timken (15%), and Josh Mandel (26%). A poll the group commissioned last July had shown Vance in second with 12% behind Mandel (40%). Both polls had margins of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

A Trafalgar Group poll from December showed Mandel with 21%, Vance with 15%, Gibbons with 12%, and Timken with 10%. The poll's margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points.

The primary is scheduled for May 3. Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) isn't seeking re-election.

In other Club for Growth news, their PAC endorsed Rep. Mary Miller’s (R-Ill.) re-election campaign on Jan. 18. Miller will face Rep. Rodney Davis (R) in Illinois’ 15th Congressional District. Miller represents the 15th District under the old congressional map, and part of that district is in the new 15th. Illinois' new map placed Miller's Oakland residence in the new 12th District.

January 13, 2022

Taylor drops Senate bid, endorses Durant in Alabama

Jessica Taylor, a business owner who lost the 2020 Republican primary for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, ended her campaign for U.S. Senate last week and endorsed aerospace company founder and former Black Hawk pilot Mike Durant.

The Hill’s Tal Axelrod wrote, "The nominating contest is largely a race between Rep. Mo Brooks (R) and Katie Boyd Britt, the former chief of staff to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R)." Between Brooks, Britt, and Durant, Axelrod said, "The primary represents a clash of résumés that appeal to various flanks of a fractured GOP … And with none of the three establishing themselves as an early front-runner, Alabamians are gearing up for a slog."

Brooks has represented Alabama's 5th Congressional District since 2011. He ran in the special U.S. Senate election in 2017, losing in the primary. A campaign spokesman said, "Mo Brooks has consistently been rated as the most conservative member of Alabama's Congressional delegation. … The comparison of records couldn't be clearer. Mo Brooks is a proven conservative, with a proven record. Katie Britt is a moderate." Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Brooks in April 2021.

Britt was most recently president and CEO of the Business Council of Alabama. A campaign spokesman said, "Alabamians are ready for fresh blood and are tired of do-nothing career politicians who make running for office a business model."

Durant's Black Hawk helicopter was shot down in Somalia in 1993, an event depicted in the film Black Hawk Down. Durant said, "For too long, career politicians who have never held a real job in their life have made poor decisions that have left Alabama families behind and put America last. I'm running to change that."

The filing deadline is Jan. 28 and the primary is May 24. If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held on June 21.

Thune, Johnson running for re-election

In other recent Senate news: Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) were the last senators up for re-election in 2022 to announce their plans, both deciding to run for re-election. Six senators—five Republicans and one Democrat—aren't seeking re-election. Three of the open Senate races—in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—have at least one competitive rating (Toss-up, Tilt Republican, or Lean Republican) from three election forecasters.

E-PAC, group supporting GOP women, makes first Senate endorsement

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik's E-PAC endorsed its first U.S. Senate candidate since the group launched in 2019: former state GOP Chair Jane Timken in Ohio. The group has so far endorsed 10 U.S. House candidates in 2022 elections.

E-PAC's website says, "In the 116th Congress, only 13 Republican women served in the House of Representatives, making up only 2.9% of Congress. E-PAC was launched after the 2018 midterm elections to increase that number by supporting top Republican female candidates in primaries across the country." The group says it is responsible for increasing the number of Republican women in Congress to 35 in the last election cycle.

Sixteen percent of Senate Republicans and 14% of House Republicans are women compared to 40% of House Democrats and 32% of Senate Democrats.

Stefanik was first elected to represent New York's 21st Congressional District in 2014. She previously served as the National Republican Congressional Committee's recruitment chair, a role she left before launching E-PAC. The NRCC does not endorse in primary elections.

Other GOP primary candidates for Senate in Ohio include Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Bernie Moreno, and J.D. Vance.

December 16, 2021

Early messaging in Ohio's GOP Senate primary

Fourteen candidates are running in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio so far. The current incumbent, Sen. Rob Portman (R), is retiring. Candidates and satellite groups have been running ads since the first few months of 2021. Here are some highlights.

This month, candidate Bernie Moreno released an ad comparing inflation under President Joe Biden (D) to inflation during Jimmy Carter's (D) presidency. In another ad, Moreno refers to himself as a "pro-Trump legal immigrant." Moreno immigrated to the U.S. from Columbia as a child.

Also this month, investment banker Mike Gibbons released an ad opposing candidate J.D. Vance, highlighting Vance's past criticisms of former President Donald Trump (R). Gibbons discussed his stances on immigration and election security in another ad. Gibbons ran for Senate in 2018, placing second in the GOP primary behind Jim Renacci 32% to 47%.

The Club for Growth and the USA Freedom Fund have also released ads criticizing Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy, over his previous statements on Trump. Both groups have endorsed former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who was the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012. He lost to Sherrod Brown (D) 45% to 51%. A USA Freedom Fund ad also criticizes Jane Timken and Gibbons.

Vance said in July, "I ask folks not to judge me based on what I said in 2016, because I’ve been very open that I did say those critical things and I regret them, and I regret being wrong about the guy [Trump]. I think he was a good president."

Mandel says in an ad titled "Faith" that his grandmother was "saved from the Nazis by a network of courageous Christians, who risked their lives to save hers. Without their faith, I’m not here today."

Timken, a former state Republican Party chair, has released ads about her opposition to critical race theory, mask and vaccine mandates, and Biden's immigration policy.

The primary is scheduled for May 3. Four Republican primary candidates have filled out Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click their names below to read their responses.

December 2, 2021

Parnell withdraws from Senate race in Penn., Dr. Oz enters

U.S. Senate candidate Sean Parnell (R) ended his campaign on Nov. 22 following a judge’s order granting Parnell’s wife, Laurie Snell, primary custody of their children. Parnell said, "There is nothing more important to me than my children, and while I plan to ask the court to reconsider, I can’t continue with a Senate campaign." Former President Donald Trump endorsed Parnell in September.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, a cardiothoracic surgeon and host of The Dr. Oz Show, announced on Nov. 30 that he was entering the race. Oz wrote in the Washington Examiner, "During the pandemic, I learned that when you mix politics and medicine, you get politics instead of solutions. That’s why I am running for the U.S. Senate: to help fix the problems and to help us heal." Trump appointed Oz to two-year terms on the President’s Council on Sport, Fitness, and Nutrition in 2018 and 2020.

After Parnell ended his campaign, CNN contributor and former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Penn.) said, "Right now you've got a wide-open, fluid field in Pennsylvania." Allegheny County Republican Chairman Sam DeMarco III said, "My most important goal is to keep this seat in Republican hands come 2022, and I believe Dr. Oz’s entry into the race gives us a significant opportunity to do that."

Incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is one of six senators (and five Republicans) not running for re-election. More than a dozen candidates have filed to run in the Republican primary, including political commentator Kathy Barnette, businessman Jeff Bartos, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands, and businessman Everett Stern. Politico reported that George W. Bush administration treasury official and hedge fund CEO David McCormick and former U.S. Rep. Ryan Costello (R-Penn.) may also enter the race.

Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive of 2022. Republicans would need to pick up one seat to take control of the chamber.

The filing deadline is March 8 and the primary is scheduled for May 17.

An early look at two New Hampshire battleground primaries

One of 2022's other competitive Senate elections is expected to take place in New Hampshire. The state is also home to a swing congressional district (NH-01).

The big news in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate election is who isn't running. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced he'd seek a fourth term rather than challenging incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), who Hassan defeated by 0.1 percentage points in 2016, is also not running. Former Sen. Scott Brown (R) is out as well.

Who is running?

So far, Republicans Don Bolduc and Tejasinha Sivalingam. Bolduc ran in and lost the 2020 GOP Senate primary. Sivalingam is a landlord and previously ran for state representative as a Republican and as a Democrat.

Other potential Republican candidates include:

Bryant "Corky" Messner, who defeated Bolduc in the 2020 GOP primary and lost to incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) 41% to 57% in the general
New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse, first elected to the chamber in 2010 and as president in 2020
Former U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta, who represented the state's 1st Congressional District from 2011 to 2013 and 2015 to 2017. Guinta ran against Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in four consecutive elections (winning twice and losing twice)
Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut
2010 Senate candidate/businessman Bill Binnie
Attorney Phil Taub

In the 1st Congressional District, Chris Pappas (D) has held office since the end of the Guinta/Shea-Porter back-and-forth in 2019. Six Republicans have filed so far, including:

2020 GOP nominee Matt Mowers, who lost to Pappas 51% to 46%. Mowers served in the state department in Trump's administration.
State Rep. Tim Baxter
Former Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt
Broadcast journalist Gail Huff Brown (former Sen. Brown's wife)
Marine veteran Julian Acciard
Sales associate Gilead Towne

Three candidates received high-profile endorsements last month. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley endorsed Mowers. U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), who chairs the House Republican Conference, endorsed Leavitt. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) backed Huff Brown.

New Hampshire's primaries are scheduled for Sept. 13. We'll be keeping a close eye on how Republican candidates approach the primaries in this competitive state.

November 18, 2021

Where Trump has endorsed challengers to GOP incumbents so far

Former President Donald Trump has made more than 50 endorsements in the 2022 elections so far, including several candidates challenging GOP incumbents. The table above includes incumbents who are running for re-election or have not announced their intentions.

Three of the four House incumbents with Trump-endorsed challengers voted to impeach Trump for incitement of insurrection following the Jan. 6 Capitol breach: Liz Cheney, Jaime Herrera Beutler, and Fred Upton. Two of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach—Anthony Gonzalez (OH-16) and Adam Kinzinger (IL-16)—are not running for re-election.

Three incumbent Republican senators with seats up for election in 2022 voted "guilty" on Trump's 2021 impeachment: Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Richard Burr (N.C.), and Pat Toomey (Penn.). Murkowski is the only one seeking re-election. Trump endorsed Kelly Tshibaka in the primary (which will be a top-four primary featuring candidates of all affiliations— click here for more information). Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the group will be supporting all incumbent senators.

Trump has criticized Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker on crime, policing, and other issues. Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued over the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results in the state. We cover conflicts in the Idaho gubernatorial race below.

We'll be watching how impeachment votes and 2020 election claims unfold in these and other Republican primaries, along with policy differences between the candidates.

Missouri Republicans weigh effect of Eric Greitens’ U.S. Senate candidacy

A recurring theme during primary season is how candidates must connect with the primary election voter base and lay the groundwork for the general election. Often, primary candidates argue that their opponents aren't likely to win the general election. An early example of this conflict in the 2022 season is developing in Missouri's GOP Senate primary.

Nine candidates are seeking the GOP nomination so far, including the state Senate president, the state attorney general, and two current U.S. House members. Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is not seeking re-election. National media coverage has focused on the potential effect of former Gov. Eric Greitens' candidacy.

Greitens was elected governor in 2016 and resigned in 2018 following investigations into allegations of sexual misconduct and misuse of campaign information. Greitens' opponents say nominating him would benefit Democrats in the general election. Greitens' supporters say the allegations against him were politically motivated and that he is the candidate most in line with the party's base.

Greitens has received endorsements from Trump allies including Rudy Giuliani, Michael Flynn, and Kimberly Guilfoyle, who serves as Greitens' national campaign chairwoman. Trump has not indicated whether he intends to issue an endorsement.

Missouri’s primaries are set to take place Aug. 2.

Outside ratings

The following table compared U.S. Senate race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections.

Special elections

See also: Special elections to the 116th United States Congress (2019-2020)

Special elections to United States Senate are often required in the event of vacancies. This table lists special Senate elections from 2021 to 2022.

Results of special elections to the 117th Congress (Senate)
Race	Election date	Incumbent	Winner	Election MOV	Previous election MOV	2020 Presidential election MOV (statewide)^[5]
California Senate	November 8, 2022	Kamala Harris	Alex Padilla	D+17.6	D+23	D+55
Oklahoma Senate	November 8, 2022	Jim Inhofe	Markwayne Mullin	R+26.6	R+30	R+7

Presidential election data in 2022 Senate election states

Republicans were defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election:

Pennsylvania: Biden defeated Donald Trump (R) 50.0%-48.8%. Incumbent Pat Toomey did not seek re-election.
Wisconsin, Biden defeated Trump 49.5%-48.8%. Incumbent Ron Johnson sought re-election.

Democrats were not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020.

Footnotes

↑ ^1.0 ^1.1 Independent Senators Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Angus King (I-Maine) caucus with the Democratic Party.
↑ Alaska held top-four all-party primaries.
↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named LADisclaimer
↑ ^4.00 ^4.01 ^4.02 ^4.03 ^4.04 ^4.05 ^4.06 ^4.07 ^4.08 ^4.09 ^4.10 ^4.11 ^4.12 ^4.13 ^4.14 ^4.15 ^4.16 ^4.17 ^4.18 ^4.19 ^4.20 ^4.21 ^4.22 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
↑ 270towin, "Historical Timeline," accessed March 25, 2022

[ind-1] 1.0 ^1.1 Independent Senators Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Angus King (I-Maine) caucus with the Democratic Party.

[2] Alaska held top-four all-party primaries.

[LADisclaimer-3] Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named LADisclaimer

[quotedisclaimer-4] 4.00 ^4.01 ^4.02 ^4.03 ^4.04 ^4.05 ^4.06 ^4.07 ^4.08 ^4.09 ^4.10 ^4.11 ^4.12 ^4.13 ^4.14 ^4.15 ^4.16 ^4.17 ^4.18 ^4.19 ^4.20 ^4.21 ^4.22 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.

[5] 270towin, "Historical Timeline," accessed March 25, 2022

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United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2022

Partisan breakdown

Republican primaries

Candidate lists

Alabama

Arizona

Arkansas

Colorado

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana[3]

Maryland

Missouri

Nevada

New Hampshire

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

South Dakota

Utah

Vermont

Wisconsin

Seats up for election

Battleground primaries

News and conflicts in the 2022 Republican Senate primaries

Breaking down Trump's primary endorsements and outcomes

Democrats spent millions in GOP primaries

Satellite spending and polling roundup in NH battleground races

NRSC Chair Rick Scott criticizes Republicans who criticize GOP Senate candidates

Primary results roundup

Media coverage

Poll shows over a third of New Hampshire Republicans are undecided in U.S. Senate race

Primary results roundup

Big stories of the night: MI-03, Michigan gubernatorial, and Missouri U.S. Senate primaries

Other marquee primary results

Media analysis

Trump rules out endorsement for Hartzler in Missouri, but picks Mullin in special Oklahoma Senate primary

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska

Primary results roundup

Big stories of the night

Other marquee primary results

Media analysis

Former Ohio U.S. Senate candidate starts new PAC

Primary opponents criticize Greitens' new campaign ad

Primary results roundup

Media analysis

Trump endorses Britt in Alabama's U.S. Senate runoff

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Kemp and Raffensperger win in Georgia, Britt and Brooks advance in Alabama

Other marquee primary results

Media analysis

Recount on in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate primary

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Expected Pennsylvania recount, Cawthorn defeated, and more

Other marquee primary results

Media analysis

Connecticut GOP endorses Themis Klarides for U.S. Senate

Super PAC switches gears from Ohio to Pennsylvania, Barnette rises in polls

May 3 primary results roundup

The big story of the night: Vance wins U.S. Senate primary in Ohio

Other marquee primary results

Defeated incumbents

Media analysis

Ohio U.S. Senate updates: Former President Trump appears at Vance rally, Club for Growth releases anti-Vance ad

Trump endorses Vance in Ohio U.S. Senate primary

Former EPA administrator Scott Pruitt files for Oklahoma special U.S. Senate election

Trump endorses Oz in Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary

Louisiana^[3]