Following the long Independence Day weekend, there were up to three days worth of COVID-19 test results waiting to be reported in many of California’s largest counties Monday.
After another week with a record-setting rise in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, the pace of growth in California slowed over the holiday weekend. The caveat: Los Angeles, Sacramento, Santa Barbara, San Joaquin, Ventura, Solano and Marin counties haven’t reported new test results since Thursday, and more — including Riverside, San Diego, San Francisco, San Bernardino and Tulare — haven’t updated their counts since Friday.
Altogether, counties that account for 70% of all the state’s cases to date will begin the week with a backlog of test results, which could inflate case counts Monday and Tuesday higher than already expected, having been rising rapidly for two weeks now.
As of Sunday evening, there were 255,252 confirmed coronavirus cases around the state and 5,669 patients hospitalized with the virus, according to data compiled by this news organization. There hasn’t been a three-day stretch with fewer positive tests since mid-June, but these results only account for a sliver of the state’s population.
Gov. Gavin Newsom and public health officials urged Californians to stay home over the July Fourth weekend. Most public celebrations and fireworks displays were canceled, while beaches closed again in many parts of the state. But any effect from holiday gatherings likely won’t appear in the case data for at least a week, if not two or more, due to the time for symptoms to appear and to receive test results.
It’s less clear the effect the holiday weekend had on hospitalization data that, while still on the rise, has declined in the pace of growth. The number of patients hospitalized with the virus is up nearly 12% from a week ago and at its highest point of the pandemic, but compare that to a 31% increase in hospitalizations the week prior. Still, it remains less than 10% of the state’s total hospital capacity, not including the additional 50,000 or so surge beds it has available.
Parts of the state, however, beginning to reach a critical mass. Riverside County has filled nearly all of its 385 intensive care units, while officials in Los Angeles County were concerned about reaching its near-2,000-bed ICU capacity in the weeks to come.
Hospitals in the Bay Area have begun to accept patients from other counties as the region continues to evade the worst of the virus. At least 500 patients have been transported out of rural Imperial County, including more than a dozen to the Bay Area, hundreds of miles away.
The Bay Area had begun to see a similar spike in cases and hospitalizations about a week after Southern California, but the virus was already less widespread here than in the L.A. region. So while average number of daily cases in the Bay Area has spiked 33% in the past week to about 700 over the past week, Los Angeles County — with about 20% more people than the Bay Area — is averaging more than 2,300, 22% more than a week ago.
The same disparity is reflected in the percentage of tests that come back positive. Statewide, the rate has increased to 6.3% over the past 14 days, up from around 4.5% in mid-June. But in Los Angeles County, the rate is at 10%, while in San Francisco, it is 3%.
Still, four Bay Area counties landed on the state’s expanding watch list of counties where transmission of the virus is rising. Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Solano and Marin all earned a spot on the list, citing mainly a rise in hospitalizations. Alameda County has the most cases and hospitalizations in the Bay Area, but it is meeting all the state’s guidelines, so has not made it on the watch list, which had expanded to 24 counties Monday.
