COVID-19: Marion cases spiking just three weeks before Christmas

Marion County is seeing its biggest COVID-19 spike of new cases since the pandemic began, with the Florida Department of Health reporting an average of 150 local residents per day infected so far in December.

In July, at Marion's monthly peak, the average number of daily cases reached 136. December has started off on a record pace as the coronavirus has sickened 14 million people across the United States and 1 million in Florida.

Coronavirus updates:https://www.usatoday.com/news/coronavirus/

So what is the cause of Marion County's recent spike? Can it be linked to President Donald Trump's rally on Oct. 16? Is it due to Halloween gatherings? Have Thanksgiving gatherings started to negatively affect the numbers?

Local health department officials say it is likely none of the above.

They believe it is due to mask fatigue, with people spreading the virus through small workplace, social and recreational gatherings across town. Officials say people tend to let their guard down in those settings.

"While we are seeing increases in some settings, such as long-term care facilities, most of the cases have been community-driven," said Christy Jergens, public information officer for the Florida Department of Health in Marion.

Though cases linked to Thanksgiving gatherings have not yet greatly affected the numbers, "we expect increases linked to increased holiday gatherings" in the coming week or so, Jergens said in an email interview.

Death rate declining

Though Marion is seeing a spike in the number of daily cases, the death rate is about half what it was during the county's surge in July and August.

And the reason appears to be a better understanding of the disease by physicians, who know how to better treat those who get the sickest, officials say.

"As we have learned more about the virus, medical treatments have improved and that could be factoring into a reduction in the number of deaths we are currently seeing," Jergens noted. "However, there are several factors that can impact the number of deaths we see, with one of the most important being the age of those who become ill."

The Star-Banner looked at data for the past 14 days and compared it to a similar 14-day spike when the seven-day positivity rate also ranged from 6% to 9%, roughly the same as now.

That period was Aug. 25 to Sept. 7. During that 14-day span, there were 788 cases and 73 deaths, or a 9.3% death rate. In the past 14 days, there have been 1,424 positive cases and 14 deaths, or a 1% death rate.

One reason is that COVID-19 was rampant in long-term care facilities back during that previous period. So far during the pandemic, 153 of Marion's 384 deaths were of long-term care patients. Also, 83% of all deaths are of people older than 64.

Other information, though, backs up health officials' assertion that doctors may now have better ways to treat patients to prevent deaths.

For one, the average age of a person who tested positive for COVID-19 on Aug 25 was 41. Today it's 44. That means that the average patient is slightly older today than during the summer wave, not younger. 

Looking at all the cases from March 21 through Oct 31, there were 10,926 positive cases and 348 deaths, or a 3.19% death rate. Since Nov. 1, there have been 2,718 cases and 41 deaths for a rate of 1.51%. 

Jergens noted that 60% of Marion's deaths are people age 75 or older, while 23% have been people between the age of 65-74. Only 5% of the deaths are people younger than 55.

Local cases spiking

Marion is seeing a steady increase in its daily number of cases and seven-day positivity rate. On three different occasions in the past eight days Marion has reported more cases in one day than any 24-hour period since August's surge.

Florida Department of Health reported 170 new cases on Thanksgiving, 182 on Thursday and 182 more on Friday. On Aug. 9, there were 251 new cases reported in a single day.

Since the state Department of Health's COVID-19 report on Nov. 25, Marion County has added 846 new COVID-19 cases and 12 deaths in eight days. That brings Marion's total cases to 13,644 and deaths to 389.

On Friday, the state reported that Marion County had 182 more cases. There were 1,233 negative tests received on Thursday. Of all the tests received on Thursday, 12.9% were positive.

Meanwhile, Marion's seven-day positivity rate hit 10.7%, the first time it has hit double-digits since Aug. 22. The local seven-day positivity rate had dipped to 3.2% on Oct. 13, its lowest level in months.

The highest seven-day positivity rate was 19.9% on Aug. 1 and the highest seven-day average of daily cases was 263, also on Aug. 1. The seven-day average daily case count reached 111 on Friday, up from 27 per day on Oct. 13. 

The 14-, 21- and 28-day positive rates are now above 9%. A rate below 5% means health officials can effectively trace potential exposures.

At a recent Marion County Commission meeting, the medical director for the Florida Department of Health in Marion, Dr. Keith Singer, addressed the latest spike. 

Singer said that the agency is seeing an upward trend in the number of current hospitalizations and patients in COVID-19 Intensive Care Units across the county.

According to state data, the number of people in the COVID-19 ICU was zero on Oct. 23. The most recent count was eight. The peak was 25 in early August.

The number of people hospitalized was 25 on Oct. 13, while on Friday there were 62. The peak number hovered around 125 over the summer, data shows.

"This was expected because we are seeing a second wave like most of the country," Singer noted, adding that there is an uptick in hospitalizations. "We are still far off the average from August."

The number or people being admitted to COVID-19 ICU beds is trending up, as is the use of ventilators. But Singer said he does not expect that Marion County will not exhaust its ventilator supply.

Though that data may reflect that hospitals could approach capacity, Singer said that hospitals actually have additional beds that can be made available if needed.

Schools cases on rise

Marion County Public Schools is also seeing a spike in cases, according to its Friday report. School officials said that shouldn't surprise anyone, since its numbers will mirror increases and declines in the community.

Marion County Public Schools officials reported Friday that 100 people (62 students and 38 staff members) tested positive for COVID-19 from Nov. 20-Dec. 3, according to a news release.

The last report showed that 54 people (29 students and 25 staff members) tested positive for COVID-19 from Nov. 13-19. There were 25 cases during the week of Nov. 6-12 and 16 from the week of Oct. 30-Nov. 5.

Kevin Christian, the school district spokesman, wanted to remind the community that the numbers are skewed because Friday's report was for a two-week period, not one. The school district was closed last week for Thanksgiving.

"I think the public should not be overly alarmed by the numbers," Christian said. "This is for a two-week reporting period, not one like we typically do. We will mirror what we see in the community."

Christian said that when students are in school, at least six hours of their day they are being forced to social distance and to wear masks. When they were out of school for the week, students may not have worn masks or social distanced.

Also, Christian pointed out, there are now 81% of the district's 41,000-plus students attending in-person school. A few weeks ago, the number was 66%.

Schools affected by positive COVID-19 cases from Nov. 20-Dec. 3 were:

• Elementary: Anthony, Belleview, College Park, Dr. N. H. Jones, Eighth Street, Emerald Shores, Evergreen, Fessenden, Hammett Bowen Jr., Harbour View, Legacy, Maplewood, Marion Oaks, Oakcrest, Ocala Springs, South Ocala, Sparr, Sunrise, Ward-Highlands and Wyomina Park.

• Middle: Dunnellon, Fort King, Howard, Lake Weir, Liberty, North Marion and Osceola.

• High: Dunnellon, Forest, Lake Weir, North Marion, Vanguard and West Port.

• Other: Fort McCoy, Horizon Academy and Marion Technical College.

There were also cases reported in the following departments: Custodial Services, Elementary Education, Exceptional Student Education, Curriculum, Food Services, Technical Services and Transportation.

Christian sent out a news release Friday that showed 692 other people (628 students and 64 staff) had to be put into quarantine from Nov. 20-Dec. 3. That means they had close contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19, either at home or at school.

That is up from the last report that showed 395 other people (347 students and 45 staff) had to be put into quarantine from Nov. 13-19. That is up from 231 during the week of Nov. 6-12 and 109 for the week of Oct. 30- Nov. 5.

The percentage of students who were absent due to COVID-19 symptoms is also showing a spike.

The two-week period ending Dec. 3, the rate was 1.38% per day for the five days students were in school, down from 1.58% during the week of Nov. 19 and up from 1.08% during the week ending Nov. 12.

Christian said a 1% to 2% rate of cases is actually remarkable.

When the school district opened on Aug. 25, the seven-day positive rate was 10%. That number dropped to 3.2% on Oct. 13, after seven weeks of school being in session.

"Students are on campus about six hours per day," Christian noted. "We trained them to be safe. We hope those measures carry out when they are away from campus the other 18 hours of the day."

While schools will remain open, with an option for online school for parents through spring, other events and facilities are beginning to close.

It was mid-October when, because of the lower positivity rate, officials began to open museums and to being planning traditional holiday parades and other events.

Since the positivity rate has climbed, so have cancellations. The Ocala and Belleview Christmas parades have been canceled, the Silver River Museum announced it will now be closed indefinitely and other events have paused.

The Ocala Symphony Orchestra announced it had canceled the Symphony Under the Lights event.

While some events have been canceled, some events planned for the next week or so – such as First Friday Art Walk, Dunnellon Christmas parade and Pearl Harbor Remembrance ceremony  – are still a go. 

Holiday season

With Christmas only three weeks away, and New Year's Eve a week after that, residents are urged to be vigilant by social distancing, wear masks when they can't social distance and wash hands regularly, local officials say.

The local health department noted in a press release Thursday that the average daily positive COVID-19 cases has nearly tripled, from 37 in October to 102 on average each day this past week. 

Residents need to take due care when planning holiday gatherings.

"It’s natural to want to gather around the holidays, but consider scaling back the number of places you would go or people you would meet with," Jergens noted. "Whenever you are with others outside your family, we would encourage you to follow mitigation tactics, such as practicing social distancing, wearing masks, and gathering outside if possible."

Jergens said it is vital for people who feel ill to get tested for COVID-19 and avoid going out in public or being around at-risk individuals.

"Older adults or persons with certain medical conditions who are at increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19, or live or work with someone at increased risk of severe illness, should avoid in-person gatherings with people who do not live in their household," she noted.

Consider hosting an outdoor holiday gatherings rather than an indoor holiday gatherings.

"Guests who have traveled from other areas or towns should distance themselves from people who are 65 or older and people of any age who have underlying health issues such as lung or heart disease," she noted.

Hosts entertaining at home should make sure frequently touched surfaces are cleaned and disinfected before and after gatherings. All individuals should wash their hands or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer frequently.

"The increases in cases is primarily coming from the everyday interactions that we are having with one another, whether socially or at work," Jergens said. "This means it’s important that you follow COVID-19 mitigation tactics when outside your home."

Joe Callahan can be reached at (352) 867-4113 or at joe.callahan@starbanner.com. Follow him on Twitter @JoeOcalaNews.

COVID-19 spiking

Past seven days (Nov. 26-Dec 3)

• 102.4 new cases reported per day

• 9.8% daily positivity rate

• 1 COVID-19 related death reported per day

November

• 70.6 new cases reported per day

• 7.9% daily positivity rate

• 1 COVID-19 related death reported per day

October

• 37.2 new cases reported per day

• 4.6% daily positivity rate

• 1.9 COVID-19 related deaths reported per day