Tramel: College football predictions & rescheduling games

The last couple of weeks, I’ve developed an hourly ritual. Refresh my espn.com college football page, just to check on the latest postponements or cancellations in college football.

They’ve come regularly, courtesy of the coronavirus.

Notre Dame-Wake Forest, Tulsa-Arkansas State, Houston-North Texas, Navy-Temple, Memphis-UTSA and Florida Atlantic-South Florida so far this week. 

Brigham Young-Army, Virginia Tech-Virginia, Houston-Memphis and then Houston-Baylor, Charlotte-North Carolina, Florida Atlantic-Georgia Southern last week.

OSU-Tulsa, Virginia Tech-North Carolina State, TCU-SMU, Baylor-Louisiana Tech, East Carolina-Marshall, Central Florida-Florida Internationalthe week before that.

Now we reach the week that really starts mattering. Opening week of league play for the Big 12 and the Southeastern Conference.

The ACC opened league play on September 12 and has played eight conference games while rescheduling three more. That’s a 73 percent success rate; the Big 12 and SEC likely would take that for the season and call it even.

The Big 12 has some cushion built into the season. Each team has two open dates, either October 10 or 17, and either November 14 or 21. Plus the entire conference is blank on December 12, when the Big 12 title game could be played, but the conference has the option of playing the championship on December 19. So in effect, each team has three open dates.

The Big 12 was quite strategic in its scheduling.

On October 10, OSU, Baylor, Kansas and West Virginia are off. That means if the Cowboys can’t play Saturday against West Virginia or next week at Kansas, a quick fix would be October 10.

On October 17, OU, Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU and Iowa State are off. That means if the Sooners can’t play Saturday against K-State, next week against Iowa State or October 10 against Texas, October 17 is an option.

Same type of thing on November 14 and 21. Those weekends could be makeup dates for games scheduled in late October and early November. And the December 12 option could possibly cover late November/early December postponements.

The ACC already had dipped into its December 12 insurance policy. Both Virginia Tech-Virginia and Notre Dame-Wake Forest have been rescheduled for December 12. With a 15-team conference and a 10-game conference schedule, the ACC has little wiggle room.

Buckle up. And keep hitting refresh. Let’s get to the predictions:

Kansas State at Oklahoma: Sooners 52-10. The Wildcats appear to be short-handed.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State: Cowboys 28-21. Can Shane Illingworth deliver again? Will he need to?

Iowa State at TCU: Cyclones 19-7. The Frogs will go with sophomore Matthew Downing at quarterback, though Max Duggan has been cleared to play after a heart scare.  

Texas at Texas Tech: Longhorns 47-20. Remember when trips to Lubbock were harrowing for the ‘Horns? Those days are gone. 

Kansas at Baylor: Bears 31-18. The Dave Aranda era finally begins. Things will get tougher, and soon, Dave.

Florida at Ole Miss: Gators 55-13. Lane Kiffin returns to the SEC. His Rebels will be no match for Florida.

Kentucky at Auburn: Tigers 31-20. Hopes are high for Mark Stoops’ Kentucky team. Maybe playing at Auburn isn’t so tough in a pandemic.

Mississippi State at LSU: Tigers 38-14. Mike Leach is an SEC head coach. That’s been an undersold element to the 2020 season.

Georgia at Arkansas: Bulldogs 49-10. Oklahoman Sam Pittman makes his Razorback coaching debut against the school he just left.

Alabama at Missouri: Crimson Tide 42-7. Bama’s first trip to Columbia since 2012, Mizzou’s first year in the SEC.

Vanderbilt at Texas A&M: Aggies 41-8. A&M’s schedule is about to get a lot tougher. Alabama and Florida are up next.

Tennessee at South Carolina: Volunteers 27-21. Tennessee just gave Jeremy Pruitt a contract extension. Seems odd, in these financially-strapped times, for a coach who hasn’t done much.

Florida State at Miami: Hurricanes 34-30. I assume the Seminoles will show up better than they did against Georgia Tech. They’d better, or Miami will roll.

Louisville at Pittsburgh: Cardinals 31-21. I tend to think the Panthers are overrated.

Georgia Tech at Syracuse: Yellow Jackets 28-20. Tech can get to 2-0 in the ACC.

Duke at Virginia: Blue Devils 31-30. Duke played tough at Notre Dame, then got routed by Boston College. But at least the Blue Devils have played. Virginia has not.

North Carolina State at Virginia Tech: Hokies 27-17. The ACC’s 15-team, one-division conference race will be fascinating. Top two teams make the championship game.

Texas State at Boston College: Eagles 42-38. Jake Spavital’s Bobcats are getting a lot of exposure. ESPN games, a game against the ACC. Hard to buy that kind of advertising.

Central Florida at East Carolina: Knights 53-21. Josh Heupel goes into Lincoln Riley’s old stomping grounds.

Tulane at Southern Mississippi: Green Wave 31-21. BYU led Navy 31-0 at halftime. Tulane led Navy 24-0 at halftime. BYU beat Navy 55-3. Tulane lost to Navy 27-24. Football is a funny game. 

Army at Cincinnati: Bearcats 23-20. One of the best games of the day. Cincinnati has visions of making a Central Florida-like run, but the Cadets are not an easy out.

Stephen F. Austin at SMU: Mustangs 57-7. Shane Buechele tore up North Texas last week, with four touchdown passes in a 65-35 rout.

Alabama-Birmingham at South Alabama: Blazers 31-13. The Thursday night game on ESPN. The NFL’s version of Dolphins-Jaguars.

Georgia Southern at Louisiana-Lafayette: Ragin’ Cajuns 38-16. ULL needed overtime to beat Georgia State, after upsetting Iowa State.

Campbell at Appalachian State: Mountaineers 41-10. Appalachian State, the pride of the Sun Belt, lost to Marshall last week. The Sun Belt shines only against the Big 12, apparently.

Georgia State at Charlotte: 49ers 28-27. The Panthers’ close call against Louisiana-Lafayette probably means they’re probably due a comedown.

Texas-El Paso at Louisiana-Monroe: Warhawks 33-14. UTEP is 2-1, but both victories were tight, over Division I-AA opponents.

Troy at Brigham Young: Cougars 42-14. What a bummer that BYU’s game at Army was called off. The Cougars need all the good opponents they can get.

Middle Tennessee at Texas-San Antonio: Roadrunners 33-24. The Blue Raiders have been outscored by 42 at Army and 33 by Troy.

Florida International at Liberty: Flames 24-17. Liberty whacked Western Kentucky last week. The Jerry Falwell Jr. scandal doesn’t appear to have crippled the football team. 

Houston Baptist at Louisiana Tech: Bulldogs 42-22. The Baptists played Texas Tech tough.

Last week: 15-5. Season: 37-12.