La Niña may leave New Mexico 'high and dry' this winter

LAS CRUCES – The fall and winter season will likely be warmer than average this year as La Niña pushes storm tracks north, leaving New Mexico “high and dry.”

New Mexico State Climatologist David DuBois explained that La Niña is a natural climate pattern dictated by central Pacific sea surface temperatures. During a year with La Niña, jet streams are pushed north leaving the southern half of the country dry and warm for the fall and winter months. 

DuBois said New Mexico may still experience snow in mountainous areas, but precipitation is more likely to be in the form of rain. This is not good news for the snowpack and spring runoff, which will impact the Rio Grande Basin and available surface water in the state in the coming spring and summer.

“Bottom line is, you know, if this La Niña pans out the way the forecast, we’re going to be relying more on pumping groundwater again for irrigation next summer,” DuBois said.

This in turn will then increase stress on vegetation in the spring and summer of 2021. DuBois said this all follows the warm, dry monsoon season New Mexico experienced this summer.

“If you go down to Elephant Butte, it’s amazing what you’ll see,” DuBois said. “You can see the bottom structures where normally there would be lots of water there.”

Laura Paskus, a New Mexico environmental reporter, spoke Sept. 30 about her new book “At the Precipice: New Mexico's Changing Climate” as part of the New Mexico State University Climate Change Education Seminar Series. Her book covers many topics related to climate change and the impact on New Mexico. The issue of surface and ground water was one that she highlighted.

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“It does worry me. Especially, you know, we see what the reservoirs look like. I mean, granted we’re at the end of irrigation season now, so Elephant Butte and Caballo are at their lowest levels,” Paskus said. But, to be at, you know, 4% or 5% capacity and to be facing a La Niña winter coming our way, … that’s a really big concern that New Mexicans should definitely be paying attention to.”

DuBois said La Niña and El Niño patterns cause a variation in climate patterns, but in general there is a warming trend throughout all seasons and all over the earth.

“And we're seeing it here in Las Cruces. We have a weather station on the NMSU campus that measures highs and lows and then we've been taking data since 1892. And the strongest warming signature has been since the 1970s,” DuBois said. “There's year to year variations, you know, with El Niños and La Niñas and other things, but it's been climbing up ever since.”

More:Las Cruces marks eight consecutive days of record high temperatures

He said there is always a chance of southern New Mexico experiencing a cold snap and warming up again because variations in the weather are unpredictable. However according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 50% chance for lower than average precipitation this year.

Leah Romero is a fellow with the New Mexico Local News Fund and can be reached at lromero@lcsun-news.com or @rromero_leah on Twitter.