The great thing about betting college football on Saturdays is we usually have dozens of games from sea to shining sea that kick off from noon for the East Coast until 10 or 10:30 p.m. for the West Coast (and even after midnight if Hawaii is at home).
With so many games to choose from, that’s why — in addition to giving readers Illinois +14¹/₂ at Michigan State, with Illini coach Lovie “Santa” Smith delivering an early Christmas present by rallying for a 37-34 outright upset — we also had two bonus winners with Western Kentucky +1 ¹/₂ over Arkansas and Iowa +9 ¹/₂ over Wisconsin.
This week, however, I’m only betting one game on the entire 43-game Saturday card. For whatever reason, I don’t see value in any other major college football game, so hopefully it’s a winner.
The Circa sportsbooks have filled a void by posting each week’s NCAA openers at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. It opened with Utah State as a 3-point favorite over Wyoming and it took only 16 minutes for early bettors to move it to -4 and just another 7 minutes before it was bet all the way to -6. I’m not so sure, however, that the early bettors were taking the right side or even if the right team is favored. I think the Circa oddsmakers were closer to the right number with their opener and I’ll gladly take the added points as the line sat at Wyoming +5 ¹/₂ and I also see value on the money line at +180 or better.
Wyoming took No. 21 Boise State to overtime this past Saturday before losing 20-17. Utah State doesn’t have a performance that impressive on its résumé, plus Wyoming also upset the SEC’s Missouri 37-17 as a 15-point underdog in its opener.
So, why is Utah State getting so much respect in the market? I’m assuming this line was bet higher because of Utah State having the edge at quarterback with Jordan Love (who I like and who has helped me cash several tickets) while Wyoming lost starting QB Sean Chambers two games ago. Nevertheless, backup Tyler Vander Waal is a former starter and filled in just fine last week against Boise State. Besides, the Cowboys still have leading rusher Xazavian Valladay (755 yards rushing, 5 TDs) while stopping the run is the greatest weakness for the Aggies’ defense (allowing more than 180 rushing yards per game).
Wyoming also has the better defense, allowing just 17.9 points per game (and the performance versus Boise State legitimizes that). Basically, I feel I’m getting points with the better team.
The play: Wyoming, +5 ¹/₂.