New Model Estimates PA Coronavirus Deaths Through December

Kara Seymour
Updated ·3 min read

PENNSYLVANIA — A highly cited coronavirus projection model this week released updated estimates on how the pandemic could impact Pennsylvania through December.

New projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released Thursday estimate the state's death toll from the virus will reach 8,859 by Dec. 1 — an increase of 1,577 deaths.

As of the most recent data, there have been 116,521 COVID-19 cases and 7,282 total deaths in Pennsylvania since the pandemic began in March. The IHME analysis also found that if Pennsylvanians adhered to universal masking, 745 lives could be saved through December.

The model, which The Washington Post has called "America's most influential coronavirus model," is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington.

IHME researchers' updated predictions indicate America’s COVID-19 death toll is expected to reach nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1.

But if 95 percent of the county's population practiced consistent mask-wearing, about 70,000 lives could be saved, according to the institute's data.

The coronavirus has killed more than 160,000 Americans as of Friday. Researchers say they expect 140,000 more to die from the coronavirus through Dec. 1. But there are ways to prevent some of the infections and deaths, IHME says in its summary.

“We’re seeing a rollercoaster in the United States,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said. “It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again.”

Infections in hotspots of Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are easing because of a combination of local mandates on mask use, as well as bar and restaurant closures, the report notes. But deaths are rising and will continue to rise for the next week or two, Murray said.

“The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths,” Murray said. “Such efforts to act more cautiously and responsibly will be an important aspect of COVID-19 forecasting and the up-and-down patterns in individual states throughout the coming months and into next year.”

IHME’s model assumes that some states will need reimpose mandates — including non-essential business closures and stay-at-home orders.

Those new restrictions would need to be in place when the daily death rate reaches 8 per million. As a result, the model estimates these states will need to reimpose mandates at the following timeframes:

  • August – Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina

  • September – Georgia and Texas

  • October – Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oregon.

  • November – Alabama, Arkansas, California, Iowa, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin.

However, if mask use is increased to 95 percent, the re-imposition of stricter mandates could be delayed 6 to 8 weeks on average, the summary states.

You can view the IHME's full analysis here.

This article originally appeared on the Newtown Patch