Predictions for the second half of the college football season
The past isn't always predictive the future. But when trying to forecast the second half of the college football season, the first seven weeks of play are helpful.
There's been the expected success of Alabama, Oklahoma and Clemson and impressive showings by Ohio State, LSU and Wisconsin.
There's been disappointments from preseason Top 25 teams Texas A&M, Michigan State and Syracuse. Meanwhile, Arizona State, Baylor and SMU are surprisingly all in the current top 20.
And the Heisman Trophy race is up in the air with three strong contenders in Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow.
The stage is set for a great finish to the season. The college football staff at USA TODAY make their predictions on how it will all turn out.
Power Five conference winners
Paul Myerberg: Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama.
George Schroeder: Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama.
Eddie Timanus: Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, LSU.
Erick Smith: Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Utah, Alabama.
College Football Playoff field
Paul Myerberg: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma.
George Schroeder: Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma.
Eddie Timanus: LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Alabama.
Erick Smith: Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson.
National champion
Paul Myerberg: Clemson. This team might not be as good as year’s unbeaten champion. Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma have been outstanding. Clemson hasn’t always looked invincible. But I’m banking on the Tigers having another gear in store beginning in November. Besides, this is a staff and roster that just knows what it takes to win in January.
George Schroeder: Ohio State. The Buckeyes will ride Justin Field’s emergence and a defensive resurgence to a national title in Ryan Day’s first season as coach.
Eddie Timanus: Ohio State. Oklahoma’s defense is better, but I still wouldn’t call it a strength. Alabama and LSU look remarkably similar, killer offenses but not as lock-down on defense as we’re accustomed to seeing from those two programs. The Buckeyes look like the total package. They haven’t encountered an offense the caliber of those other three I have in the playoff field yet, but they’re built to slow that kind of attack down with that devastating pass rush.
Erick Smith: Ohio State has gotten the headlines. Clemson has been disappointing. Oklahoma has been better than expected. Everyone seems to be overlooking Alabama. The Crimson Tide might not have the defense of recent vintage, but that offense is good enough to add another title to Nick Saban's trophy case.
Heisman Trophy winner
Paul Myerberg: Tua Tagovailoa. The numbers have been off the charts. Alabama has climbed to No. 1 in the Amway Coaches Poll. There’s a feeling that this is Tagovailoa’s year, since he led for much of last season and is seemingly destined for the NFL. That game with LSU is going to tell the story.
George Schroeder: Tua Tagovailoa seemed the likely winner last year, when he burst onto the scene – until Kyler Murray blew past him at the last moment. All Tua has done this season is exceed last season. And when Alabama wins the SEC (beating LSU in a head-up battle with Joe Burrow), he’ll have the edge.
Eddie Timanus: Joe Burrow. Jalen Hurts is having a spectacular season, but I have an inkling that the winning quarterback in the Alabama-LSU game will jump to the front of the line. I just have a hunch that it will be Joe Burrow. Can it hurry up and be Nov. 9, please?
Erick Smith: An Oklahoma quarterback can't win it three years in a row, right? That might be the only thing working against Jalen Hurts since his numbers have been great, and the Sooners are again one of the top offenses in the country. If he keeps this up, it will be hard to deny him the trophy.
Team to fall out of the top 10 by end of year
Paul Myerberg: Florida. This feels like the safest bet, though I was tempted to go with Notre Dame (and spent a split-second thinking about Penn State’s tough second-half schedule). The Gators still have three tough games away from home in South Carolina, Georgia and Missouri.
George Schroeder: Florida’s trajectory in year 2 under Dan Mullen is upward. The Gators have been impressive so far, beating Auburn and playing fairly well in a shootout loss to LSU. But the annual clash with Georgia in Jacksonville looms, and there’s also a trip to Missouri. And the season finishes with rival Florida State. Florida doesn’t have to fall far, but it might finish out of the Top 10.
Eddie Timanus: Penn State. The Nittany Lions have been very good in the first half, but I see at least one more loss on that schedule and possibly two with road trips to Michigan State and Minnesota before the Ohio State encounter.
Erick Smith: Notre Dame is still lacking that extra gear on offense and that is going to be problematic with second-half trips to Michigan and Stanford. That Georgia loss that seemed to good in September has lost some luster with the Bulldogs slipping.
Top 25 team that will finish in the top 10
Paul Myerberg: Oregon. This is based on how the Ducks have looked across the past few weeks, though the pick could fall flat as soon as Saturday’s rivalry game with Washington. The offense has picked up and the defense ranks third nationally in scoring. That’s a good combination. Oregon is currently favored in every game the rest of the regular season.
George Schroeder: Oregon lost its first game, to Auburn, and probably fell out of the Playoff race at that point. But the Ducks coulda, woulda, shoulda won that game. They’ve got a serious defense. They’re really good.
Eddie Timanus: Oregon. Assuming the Ducks can get by Washington this weekend, which I believe they can, they should be favored in all their remaining games. The trip to Arizona State on Nov. 23 is a potential obstacle, but they’ll crack the top 10 if they take care of business and win the Pac-12.
Erick Smith: Boise State. The Broncos quietly keep cruising along with an unbeaten record and it doesn't seem anybody can stop them in the Mountain West. They might have to win a New Year's Six bowl to accomplish the feat, but we've seen that done recently by a Group of Five participant.
Unranked team to finish in the poll
Paul Myerberg: Iowa State. A muffed punt cost the Cyclones in an 18-17 loss to Iowa. A redshirt freshman’s first career field goal led to a 23-21 loss to Baylor. One or two plays currently separates ISU from being 5-0 and in the mix for the top 10. While Oklahoma and Texas are still to come, I think the Cyclones get to eight or nine wins to give the Big 12 four ranked teams.
George Schroeder: Iowa State started in the rankings, but fell out after losing to Iowa and stumbling against Baylor. But the Cyclones are good enough to cause issues in the Big 12, and maybe still to reach the Big 12 championship game.
Eddie Timanus: Central Florida. We might have given up on them too early. The Knights still have a path to win the American. With the league a lot stronger at the top this year, that will actually include some quality ‘W’s.
Erick Smith: Pittsburgh. The Panthers are playing their best football as the race in the ACC Coastal heats up. A repeat division crown looked unlikely after a loss to Virginia in the season opener, but look for Pat Narduzzi's team to get back to Charlotte if it keeps up the momentum of the last month.
Most significant coach firing
Paul Myerberg: Derek Mason. He’s reached two bowl games in the past three years and received an extension in February. Still, it’s hard to shake off Saturday’s 34-10 loss at home to lowly UNLV, which dropped Vanderbilt to 1-5 with only one clear win (East Tennessee State on Nov. 23) the rest of the way. The this year’s offense is poor isn’t surprising given the program’s track record under Mason, but the defense ranks 129th nationally (ahead of only Massachusetts) in yards allowed per play.
George Schroeder: Clay Helton has done good work at USC, but the expectations there are at least as high as anywhere, and he hasn’t met them. A 3-3 record at midseason likely seals the fate of a coach who entered the season on a very hot seat.
Eddie Timanus: Willie Taggart, Florida State. The gap between FSU and Clemson is not closing. If anything, it’s getting wider. It’ll cost money, but this fan base and administration can’t afford to be patient with what is supposed to be the school’s signature sport.
Erick Smith: Lovie Smith is respected by the Illinois administration. He's worked hard to improve recruiting and change the direction of the program. It just isn't going in the right direction. Hard to see a turnaround in the second half that convinces his bosses to keep him around for a fifth season.
