NEWS

What will this winter be like? Reviewing 5 years of almanac winter predictions in Somerset County

Dylan Johnson
The Daily American

Founded in 1792, the Old Farmers' Almanac has been using special, secret formula to predict the weather.

The almanac claims it is 80% accurate and now uses solar science, climatology and meteorology to predict weather patterns for the next year.

Albeit vague and general in wording, the almanac predicts average temperatures, snowfall totals and precipitation across the country.

In Somerset County, the historic average snowfall is 96 inches between November and March, according to the National Weather Service. The average temperature is about 30 degrees during those months.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines said a deviation of more than 2 degrees is noticeable, 4 is unusual and 7 is in record territory. He also said average temperatures in Somerset County are hard to identify as a whole because of varying elevations across the mountainous region. The temperatures he provided were recorded by officials at the closest available location — the John Murtha Johnstown-Cambria County Airport.

Winter 2020-21

The Old Farmer's Almanac said the 2020-21 winter would be warmer than normal, with precipitation above normal. Snowfall would be below normal with the snowiest period in early March.

Kines said the average temperature was 34.2 degrees — a few degrees above normal. The National Weather Service recorded 71 inches of snow, which is below the average of 96 inches. Most of that season's snow fell on Dec. 2 and 17, when 7 inches fell on both days. The rest of the season was less eventful.

Winter 2019-20

Winter's worst

The Old Farmer's Almanac said the 2019-20 winter would be warmer than normal with normal precipitation and below normal snowfall. “The coldest periods will be in mid-January and from late February into early March. The snowiest period will be in late November, mid- and late January, early February and early March," the almanac said.

Kines said the average temperature was 35.7 degrees, a bit higher than normal. The snowfall total was drastically lower than average, with only 52 inches of snow that season — almost half the average. Only a few storms resulted in more than 4 inches of the white stuff.

Winter 2018-19

Winter holds on as the sun shines during a past snowstorm. File photo

The Old Farmer's Almanac said the 2018-19 winter would be warm and wet. "The coldest periods will be in mid- and late December, early and late January, and early and mid-February... The snowiest periods will be in mid-December, early January, and early February."

Kines said the average temperature was 31.6 degrees — quite close to the average of 30 degrees. The season was also close to the average snowfall with a total of 83 inches. The largest snowstorm that year hit in February, dropping 6 inches in one day.

Winter 2017-18

A rollover accident that happened during a past winter. File photo

The Old Farmer's Almanac said the 2017-18 winter would be mild and wet, but colder than the previous winter. The almanac added temperatures will still be above normal in the northeast.

This winter saw 109 inches of snow in total, with the addition of 34 inches in just one month. A few days saw half a foot of snow. Kines said temperatures were about normal at 31.4 degrees.

Winter 2016-17

Somerset Lake is seen covered in snow during a past winter. File photo

The Old Farmer's Almanac said the 2016-17 winter would be much colder, but still above normal. It also called for above normal snowfall totals in the northeast and New England.

In total, about 84 inches of snow fell that season, a few inches below normal. Kines said the average temperature was 35.9 degrees — a few degrees above normal.

Prediction winter 2021-22

This graph from the National Weather Service website shows the average snowfall for 2021 in red and the actual snowfall in green.

The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts this winter will be "positively bone-chilling."

"This coming winter could well be one of the longest and coldest that we’ve seen in years,” said Janice Stillman, editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac.

The almanac writers also expect this winter to come with lots of snow in New England, the Ohio Valley, the Deep South and New Mexico.

The Farmers' Almanac has a slightly different outlook with "typical winter chill" and a stormy January but a pleasant February.

Both of these predictions buck the current trend as temperatures have been above normal and snowfall totals below normal for almost every year since 2015.

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