Dr. Gray's Official 2015 Hurricane Forecast
Hurricane season is just around the corner, and one of the first extended forecasts is now out.
Noted hurricane experts, Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach released their findings for the 2015 season.
Dr. Gray's forecast calls for 7 named storms, three of which will become hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
+ Also see: 2015 Hurricane Names List
The probability for a major hurricane landfall on Florida's east coast is 15 percent.
One of the reasons for the quiet season forecast, the conservative forecast, is the water temperatures of the Atlantic, running below average.
Right now in the zone where most hurricanes form, the sea surface temps are in the 70s. It takes waters of 80 or above to sustain tropical storm formation.
The other big factor preventing a more robust and active season forecast is El Nino. The pacific waters warm with El Nino, which in effect causes more wind shear. And, wind shear tears apart hurricanes.
Florida is riding a lucky streak when it comes to hurricanes. It's been 9 years since the state has had a landfall!
But, a storm doesn't have to make landfall to inflict an immense amount of damage. Case in point? Hurricane Isaac -- its outer bands in 2012 led to massive flooding in Palm Beach County and cost 71 million dollars in damage. Plus, an El Nino year doesn't necessarily mean a safe one. Hurricane Andrew annihilated homestead, Florida in an El Nino year.
Hurricane season began June 1.