What the Indy 500's decision to run without fans could mean for the Kentucky Derby

In many ways, the fans are what make the Indianapolis 500 one of the greatest shows in racing every year, and the Kentucky Derby is no different — the party brings out thousands and lasts for days before the race.

With that being the case, Indianapolis Motor Speedway's decision Tuesday to hold its pushed-back 2020 race on Aug. 23 without fans because of the coronavirus pandemic raised questions about whether Churchill Downs will be able to host a Derby crowd on Sept. 5.

Gov. Andy Beshear on Tuesday said he thinks sporting events with smaller crowds and social distancing rules in place can be held amid the pandemic. But with a month until the race, he and Churchill Downs officials are watching closely.

"If it were today I’d want to see the crowd thinned out, and I’d want to see significant enforcement," Beshear said "… I think if it were today we’d want to see some changes, and I think Churchill Downs would too."

No changes to the racetrack's plans have been announced in recent days. Darren Rogers, senior director of communications for the Churchill Downs, said organizers are still following the situation and will update the plan if needed. With time winding down, he said any adjustments will be announced as soon as possible.

"We expect to provide updates to any changes and details shortly," Rogers said in an email.

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With or without fans in the infield, the Kentucky Derby was always going to look a little different in 2020.

The race was pushed back four months from its traditional running on the first Saturday in May until the first Saturday in September because of the pandemic. And there won't be the usual crowd of 150,000 or so people.

Plans submitted by Churchill and approved by Beshear in May said general admissions to the race would be cut by 61%, with outdoor seating slashed by 57% and some dining areas cut to 33% capacity. Masks would be "consistently and frequently encouraged" throughout Churchill Downs, outside of guests in their reserved seats.

With coronavirus spreading in the state and nation, Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer said the coming days would be key to Churchill Downs' efforts to include fans. Churchill recently halted sales of infield tickets to the race.

"I know that they are looking at that every day with the state public health department," Fischer said Tuesday. "Indiana — obviously their positivity rate, their incidents, their deaths are significantly more than ours here. ... We've been able to manage the virus a little bit better.

"But this next week, these next two weeks, are super critical for decisions as it relates to the Kentucky Derby."

Rogers said racetrack officials are still monitoring developments with the virus.

“We continue to work on a detailed plan that is specific to Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby," Rogers said. "Our protocols as they relate to spectators and safety are under constant thorough review and involve ongoing consultation with medical experts and public health authorities."

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Beshear, meanwhile, said he'd been in contact with Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen on Tuesday. Both are carefully watching the numbers and planned to speak again after monitoring trends this week, the governor said. But changes could be coming to the plan.

Beshear pointed toward recent Louisville City FC soccer games at Lynn Family Stadium as a blueprint for Churchill Downs to follow. Those events have a strict mask policy and take place with a limited number of fans in the open-air stadium. Churchill Downs is a massive facility, the governor said, and he believes some fans should be able to attend if safety is prioritized.

Churchill said last week that it lost about $149 million in net revenue because it had to reschedule the Derby and Kentucky Oaks. The Derby is its biggest single annual moneymaker. 

Of course, no fans at Churchill Downs would also mean no fans from out of town spending a weekend in Louisville. In a normal year, the weekend brings in an estimated $400 million to the local economy, with pop-up businesses taking their places near the racetrack on the day of the race. Many hotels and other businesses depend on Derby revenue each May.

The Kentucky Derby Festival has had to cut back as well. The organization canceled the massive annual Thunder Over Louisville fireworks show, though it's still hoping to host several other events that bring out smaller crowds. Several summer music festivals and other notable gatherings not associated with the Derby also have been canceled amid the pandemic.

While Tuesday's Indy 500 announcement was a disappointment to the hundreds of thousands who buy tickets each summer to Indianapolis Motor Speedway, those fans can take solace knowing the race, even with no crowd at the speedway, will still take place. The Indy 500 hasn't been outright canceled since World War II.

Horse racing is still taking place around the nation as well, at empty racetracks in Kentucky and beyond. Churchill Downs wrapped up more than a month of competition without crowds in early July, and racing took place later that month at Keeneland in Lexington.

The Derby has never been forced to run without fans in the house and has taken place every year since 1875. In 1945 the race was delayed as World War II was winding down, but Churchill Downs was able to host the event in June.

A race without a crowd would feel even more bizarre than the 2019 Kentucky Derby, which ended with a disqualification and a win handed to a 65-1 longshot.

We're coming down the stretch, Beshear said. The next several days will be critical.

"What we do want to see is where we are a week from now," he said. "But do I believe that if done right, there can be some fans? Yes, I do think that there can be some."

Reporter Ben Tobin contributed. Lucas Aulbach can be reached at laulbach@courier-journal.com, 502-582-4649 or on Twitter @LucasAulbach. Support strong local journalism and subscribe: www.courier-journal.com/lucasa.