Remember when Aaron Rodgers calmly laid out the Packers' improbable plan to make the NFC playoffs after a loss to Minnesota in Week 12? After that game, Green Bay immediately went out and lost again at home to lowly Arizona, a defeat that cost coach Mike McCarthy his job and likely the team any shot of executing Rodgers' plan.
Turns out, now at 5-7-1 after rebounding to rout the Falcons at home in Week 14, the Packers are still alive and well in the race for the second wild card.
All the teams ahead of Green Bay did it favors by losing as underdogs, including Minnesota (6-6-1), Washington (6-7), Carolina (6-7) and Philadelphia (6-7). To say there's zero margin for error would be an understatement. But that's where the Packers are lucky to have Rodgers, who doesn't make big mistakes and won't let the team P-A-N-I-C.
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The Packers' biggest challenge is right in front of them. They first have to complete the season sweep of the Bears by winning at Soldier Field on Sunday. But for Rodgers, considering the epic comeback he led in Week 1, that defense is not as daunting as it is for lesser quarterbacks.
Then the Packers just need to beat the lowly, injury-riddled Jets on the road in Week 16 and take care of the Lions at Lambeau Field in Week 17. On the Green Bay end, winning out is doable.
The eye test also suggests the Packers, who against the Falcons turned in the kind of all-around performance we expected of them all season, are trending in the right direction and playing the best among the five wild-card contenders.
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Let's start with the two NFC East teams. The Redskins, who have lost four consecutive games, are big underdogs against the Jaguars this week and will play the AFC wild-card hopeful Titans next week, both on the road. The Eagles are big underdogs on the road against the Rams this week and host the AFC South-leading Texans next week. Washington hosts Philadelphia in Week 17, meaning one of the two is looking at another loss, or a tie for both.
However it all adds up, Green Bay making up a half-game on both teams is likely.
The Panthers still have two games left against the Saints — this week and again in Week 17, when there's a good chance New Orleans will still be playing for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. Regardless of what happens in between, when Carolina hosts Atlanta, Green Bay should jump the Panthers, too, in its win-out scenario.
That leaves the Vikings, the trickiest part of the equation.
Even though the Packers tied the Vikings once this season, they lost the other matchup in Week 12, so they need to make up two full games on their rivals in three weeks.
Since that win in Minnesota, the Vikings have not looked good in losing consecutive road games to the Patriots and Seahawks. They're back at home Sunday but are facing the pesky, 7-6 Dolphins, who have been bad on the road (1-5) but have a knack of finding unpredictable ways to win. Then the Vikings have a not-so-easy road division game against the Lions, who have taken pride in playing spoiler.
In a strange way, the chances of the Vikings losing both of those games are greater than the chance of their losing to the Bears at home in Week 17. That's because ...
Even if Chicago loses to Green Bay, it would clinch the division title with another Minnesota loss. The Bears (9-4) still stand two full games behind the Rams (11-2) after beating LA in Week 14, and they have virtually no shot of earning either of the two first-round byes in the playoffs. Chicago will be locked into the No. 3 seed or, at worst, fall to No. 4 behind Dallas. There will be motivation for the Bears to rest key players, even more so with the possibility of a Vikings rematch in the wild-card round.
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So the Packers should be rooting hardest for interim coach Joe Philbin's former team, the Dolphins, to dig deep again for another upset win; and for the Lions to get their final victory of the season in Week 16.
Beating the Bears would put into motion a very interesting three weeks for the Packers. Of course, in this season full of surprises, the fact that Rodgers and Green Bay have a semi-reasonable path to the playoffs shouldn't be shocking.