New Data, Projections Show NJ Reopening's Impact On Coronavirus

Tom Davis
Updated ·4 min read

NEW JERSEY – New projections and data suggest New Jersey is on the right course after nearly a month of reopenings that have impacted the coronavirus outbreak. But Gov. Phil Murphy said there are signs that "we run the risk of this thing coming back at us" if New Jersey doesn't remain cautious.

Indeed, there are signs that the rate of transmission is still too high in New Jersey's more rural counties, particularly in South Jersey. And a study from researchers and epidemiologists says New Jersey is no longer on track to contain the coronavirus as infection numbers surge to record new highs across the country. Read more: NJ No Longer On Track To Contain Coronavirus, Study Shows

Indeed, Murphy pointed to a lack of social distancing shown in videos at the Jersey Shore and the flare-ups in other states as reasons for his decision to postpone indoor dining. Read more: Gov. Murphy Postpones NJ Indoor Dining Reopen Amid Coronavirus

"Am I concerned, are we all concerned, that if people go indoors and don't do the right things that this could lead to flare-ups?" Murphy said. "Yes, count me as concerned. So, please folks, continue to do the right things."

The surge in other states is apparently already having an impact in New Jersey. Hoboken's mayor sent an "important update" on July 4 morning saying all of its 13 new cases on Saturday traveled outside of Hoboken to "hot spot" states. Read more: Hoboken Mayor Announces New Coronavirus Spike, All From Travelers

Murphy said other parts of New Jersey have also seen spikes recently because of out-of-state visitors, and he pointed to a wedding in Myrtle Beach that appeared to bring infected people to New Jersey:

The Murphy administration has been using data that has a positive focus, and officials provided models to Patch that show they expected hospitalizations to decline significantly this week even as more reopenings are supposed to take place. Read more: Gov. Murphy: 'Hard Dates' In NJ Coronavirus Reopening Blueprint

According to the administration's models:

  • Hospitalizations were expected to drop 22 percent from July 1 through 7.

  • Active infections were expected to drop 22 percent to 2,174 from July 1 through 7. The July 7 number would be a 53 percent drop from June 19th.

  • ICU patients were expected to drop from 170 to 131 on July 7th.

The Murphy administration also noted that numbers have declined since the reopenings started more than a month ago.

  • On June 4th, 1,982 people were hospitalized. On Sunday, the number was 917.

  • On June 4 th, 537 people were in critical or intensive care. On Sunday, the number was 210.

  • On May 17th, when the reopenings started, Murphy announced that New Jersey had 1,272 new cases. On Sunday, the number was 303.

But, based on the models and other factors, there are some concerning signs that perhaps contributed to Murphy's decision to suspend the reopening of indoor dining.

Here are some factors that may cause concern:

  • The state's case rate is actually running ahead of its recent projections. The Murphy administration's models predicted that New Jersey would have 170,842 total cases by Tuesday; it had 171,667.

  • New Jersey's positivity percentage rate this week was low in the northern and central parts of the state – 1.22 and 1.91, respectively – but it was three times as high in South Jersey (Burlington and Atlantic counties and south): 3.36

  • New Jersey's infection rate is low compared to the rest of the country, but it has risen slightly in recent weeks. On average, each person in New Jersey with COVID was infecting 0.87 other people on Thursday. That number was at 0.82 a month ago.

  • According to the researchers' group Covid Act Now, the transmission rate is actually 1.0, a number that is considered too high and means the virus continues to be community-spread.

  • Covid Act Now said the transmission rate is greater than 1.0 in eight counties: Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren

The daily new-case averages, meanwhile, continue to be on the low side.

Murphy announced 303 new coronavirus cases on Saturday and 25 more confirmed deaths, both among the lowest daily averages on the country. Murphy will not directly address the public until Monday, and he'll provide digital updates on the coronavirus crisis until then. Read more: NJ Coronavirus, Reopen Updates: Here's What You Need To Know

Murphy said New Jersey has gotten to a better place because "we have as good a testing regime as any state in America" and a robust contact tracing program that can contain nearly all new cases within 48 hours.

"That means we can much more quickly and agilely spot it, surround it, isolate it and drive it into the ground. That is a good thing," he said.

This article originally appeared on the Toms River Patch