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Severe Weather

How Missouri Duck Boat Tragedy Unfolded: Timeline of Weather Watches, Warnings, Reports

By Jonathan Erdman

July 20, 2018

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At a Glance

  • A squall line of severe thunderstorms roared through the Ozarks of southwest Missouri.
  • This line of storms produced wind gusts over 50 mph near Table Rock Lake.
  • The National Weather Service issued several warnings covering the potential for dangerous high winds.
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National Weather Service severe thunderstorm warnings were issued in advance of the tragic, deadly capsizing of a duck boat Thursday in southwest Missouri.

(LATEST NEWS: Deadly Missouri Duck Boat Sinking

This fast-moving squall line of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds raked through southwest Missouri with speeds up to 65 mph, according to NWS-Springfield warnings, making reacting to this event a challenge and a challenge for forecasters.

Here's timeline of events compiled from National Weather Service warnings and Storm Prediction Center watches and storm reports. All times are in Central Daylight tTme.

(Note: Table Rock Lake covers parts of three southern Missouri counties, from southern Barry County to southern Stone County to far southwest Taney County, just south of Branson, Missouri.)

11:20 a.m.Severe thunderstorm watch issued by the Storm Prediction Center, in consultation with local NWS offices, for much of southwest Missouri through 9 pm, including Table Rock Lake.

5:45 p.m.: First severe thunderstorm warning was issued including northwest Barry County, but not including Table Rock Lake.

6:07 p.m.: Another severe thunderstorm warning was issued including northern Stone and northern Barry Counties, but not including Table Rock Lake.

6:15 p.m.: An update to the 6:07 p.m. warning – known as a severe weather statement – was issued, mentioniong wind gusts to 70 mph were possible from the line of storms moving southeast at 65 mph. 

6:32 p.m.Severe thunderstorm warning issued for Taney, Stone, Barry counties, including Table Rock Lake and Branson, which would remain in effect until 7:30 p.m.

6:55 p.m.: The Branson West Airport (FWB) just north of Table Rock Lake recorded a 52 mph wind gust.

7:09 p.m.: Authorities received their first call about the duck boat incident.

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7:10 p.m.: Branson Airport (BBG) located about 10 miles south-southeast of Branson, east of Table Rock Lake, measures a 52 mph wind gust.

7:12 p.m.: Trees reported down north of Branson.

7:25 p.m.: A gust to 63 mph was recorded at Branson Airport.

image
Radar history of the squall line of severe thunderstorms that raked through Branson, Missouri, and Table Rock Lake, on July 19, 2018.

We estimate there was at least 23 minutes of lead time between the issuance of the severe thunderstorm warning for Table Rock Lake and the report of the 52 mph wind gust at Branson West Municipal Airport north of the Lake.

Table Rock Lake may have had more lead time than that, since Branson West Airport is located just north of the lake. However, the NWS warning mentioned the line was moving at 50 mph, so it doesn't appear they had much more lead time than that.

One other factor that may have been in play was the hilly terrain of southwest Missouri's Ozarks. This may have impeded a view of darkening skies to the northwest, that may have otherwise been a visual cue of confirmation of the danger in flatter terrain with an unobstructed view.

It is not yet known whether the duck boat would've had time to get safely to shore if it had received warnings with maximum lead time.

It's also not yet known what time the boat went in the water. The tour was scheduled to depart at 5:30 p.m.

But after the disaster, a passenger on another duck boat nearby said in a series of tweets that the boat on which she was riding had mechanical issues that caused both boats to begin their tours later than scheduled.

Video taken from another boat of the moments before the capsizing showed the duck boat battling large waves whipped up by the squall line's strong winds. 

This is a reminder that you should always take severe thundestorm warnings as seriously as you take tornado warnings.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com, an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7, and a contributor to The Weather Channel Podcast. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter.

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