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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and best bets

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) face the Buffalo Bills (4-1) in the first of two Week 6 Monday contests. This game was rescheduled from Thursday night and kickoff will now be at 5 p.m. ET at Bills Stadium. Below, we preview the Chiefs-Bills Week 6 betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and best bets.

Chiefs at Bills betting odds and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Chiefs -238 (bet $238, win $100) | Bills +195 (bet $100, win $195)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Chiefs -5.5 (-115) | Bills +5.5 (-106)
  • Over/Under: 55.5 (O: -110, U: -110)

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Chiefs at Bills game notes

  • The Chiefs and Bills lead the AFC West and AFC East, respectively. Both teams suffered their first loss of the season last week with the Chiefs losing 40-32 at home to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Bills lost 42-16 Tuesday at the Tennessee Titans.
  • Both teams pass over 60% of the time with the Bills ranked 11th in the NFL with a pass-play percentage of 62.58 through five games. The Chiefs are 15th at 60.12%.
  • Bills QB Josh Allen ranks second in the NFL with 317.8 passing yards per game. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is sixth with 294.8 pass yards per game.
  • Mahomes and Allen are second and third, respectively, in QBR.
  • Kansas City is sixth in the league with 225.2 passing yards allowed per game. Buffalo is 24th with 263.2 pass yards allowed per game.
  • The Chiefs’ plus-5 turnover differential ranks fourth in the NFL. The Bills have a minus-2 differential.

Chiefs at Bills key injuries

Chiefs

  • WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring) out
  • Kelechi Osemele (knees) out
  • OT Mitchell Schwartz (back) questionable

Bills

  • WR John Brown (knee) questionable
  • LB Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder) questionable
  • TE Dawson Knox (calf) out
  • LB Matt Milano (pectoral) questionable
  • CB Tre’Davious White (back) questionable
  • Quinton Spain (foot) questionable

Chiefs at Bills: Odds, betting lines, picks and prediction

Prediction

Chiefs 35, Bills 24

Money line (?)

The CHIEFS (-238) are quite expensive and offer better value on the spread, but they can be backed for the outright win. Head coach Andy Reid’s squad will come out angry after the Week 5 loss to the Raiders and Mahomes and Co. are well-equipped to pick apart the thin Buffalo pass defense.

Against the spread (?)

The CHIEFS -5.5 (-115) will be able to force Allen into some mistakes as he’s forced to try to keep pace with Mahomes. This should allow the Chiefs to pull away late in what’s likely to be a high-scoring game. They need to win by 6 points to cover the spread, but look for this to be decided by double digits.

Over/Under (?)

The total of 55.5 is the highest projection on the Week 6 slate. The Chiefs (29.8) and Bills (27.8) rank eighth and 11th, respectively, in points per game this season and should top this number in primetime. Take the OVER 55.5 (-110).

The Chiefs come in with extra rest on the Sunday to Monday turnaround, while the Bills had a slightly shortened practice week going from Tuesday to Monday.

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