NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Meteorologists are predicting a La Niña pattern for the third winter in a row. This rare “triple-dip” La Niña has only happened twice since 1950.

La Niña occurs when strong winds blow warm water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the coast of South America across the equator toward Indonesia. This change in sea surface temperatures has wide-ranging impacts on weather across the globe. But what impacts will we see here in Middle Tennessee?

Krissy Hurley, the Meteorologist In Charge of Nashville’s National Weather Service Office, says that La Niña tends to mean a warmer-than-average winter for Middle Tennessee, “In Middle Tennessee, we typically see warmer than normal. And as far as rainfall, you know, sometimes we get kind of lucky. And then sometimes we have drier seasons.”

While a “triple-dip” La Niña is rare, Hurley says it’s unlikely to bring any significant changes to Middle Tennessee, “We’ve looked back at those past events, and you know, nothing really significant stuck out to us. No big-time events, but that doesn’t mean that we need to let our guard down because as we get into our secondary severe weather season, and knowing that we’re going to have another La Niña means that we could have the potential for earlier spring severe weather season.”

The winter weather outlook does take La Niña into account. Above-average temperatures and equal chances of above or below-average rainfall are predicted. But it’s important to remember that these outlooks are predicting averages over a season, not individual weather events. 

“They’re just trends. Like when you hear we’re going to have an El Niño winter, we have more opportunities for winter weather, it doesn’t mean that we’re going to get more snow or record-breaking snowfall, you know, and vice versa with La Niña. We have fewer opportunities with the winter weather. But all it takes is that one cold snap in February, where we are low-pressure systems down and some moisture to work with.”