Tropical Storm Nicole very near hurricane strength as it approaches northwest Bahamas
Cheryl McCloud- Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday.
- A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.
- Nicole is a large storm and hazards will be felt well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone.
Tropical Storm Nicole is growing stronger as it continues to move west toward Florida, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
A large portion of Florida's East Coast is either under a hurricane warning or hurricane watch.
Nicole is still forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall along Florida's East Coast, possibly Wednesday or Thursday.
Current estimates put Nicole's winds at 75 mph within 36 hours, making it a Category 1 hurricane. A storm becomes a hurricane when sustained winds hit 74 mph.
►Spaghetti models for Subtropical Storm Nicole
Most of the east coast of Florida is either under a hurricane warning or hurricane watch.
Gov. Ron DeSantis early Monday afternoon declared a state of emergency for 34 counties in the potential path of Subtropical Storm Nicole.
“While this storm does not, at this time, appear that it will become much stronger, I urge all Floridians to be prepared and to listen to announcements from local emergency management officials,” said DeSantis. “We will continue to monitor the trajectory and strength of this storm as it moves towards Florida.”
The counties under a state of emergency: Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter, and Volusia.
Nicole is a huge storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 380 miles from the center.
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"The tropical-storm-force winds will extend over a large area — much larger than a standard tropical storm," said AccuWeather Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin.
While power outages may not be severe, sporadic power outages can extend over a broad zone in Florida and the coastal areas of the southeastern U.S. in general, he added.
The Hurricane Center emphasized Nicole's large size will mean most of the state can expect to feel impacts from the storm.
"Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.," the Hurricane Center said.
Only five named storms since 1851 have ever made a continental U.S. landfall after Nov. 5, all on the Florida Gulf Coast. Just one, Kate in 1985, was a hurricane.
November hurricane? Hurricane making landfall in Florida this late in season very rare
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 10 p.m. Nov. 8:
Tropical Storm Nicole
- Location: 325 miles east of West Palm Beach; 150 miles east-northeast of Great Abaco Island
- Maximum wind speed: 70 mph
- Direction: west-southwest at 10 mph
- Next advisory: 1 a.m. Wednesday
At 10 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located 325 miles east of West Palm Beach.
Nicole is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph. A west-southwest to westward motion is expected through early Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and northt on Thursday and Thursday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
Nicole's center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph, with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be a hurricane later tonight and remain a hurricane when it approaches the east coast of Florida.
Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles from the center.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Nicole
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
All watches and warnings in effect
A hurricane warning has been issued for:
- Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line
- The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas
A tropical storm warning has been issued for:
- Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern Bahamas
- Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton
- Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound
- Lake Okeechobee
A storm surge warning has been issued for:
- North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia
- Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown
A hurricane watch has been issued for:
- Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton
- Lake Okeechobee
- Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach
A storm surge watch has been issued for:
- South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach
- Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Savannah River, Georgia
- Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass
A tropical storm watch has been issued for:
- South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef
- North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River
- North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina
What is the difference between a hurricane warning and a hurricane watch?
Hurricane warning: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Expected impacts from Tropical Storm Nicole
Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by Wednesday night.
Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge: 3 to 5 feet
- Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina: 2 to 4 feet
- St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown: 2 to 4 feet
- Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach: 2 to 4 feet
- Anclote River to Indian Pass: 2 to 4 feet
- Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay: 1 to 3 feet
- North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay: 1 to 2 feetet
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Rain: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday:
- Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with up to 8 inches in some locations
- Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with up to 6 inches in some locations along the Blue Ridge
Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north farther up the eastern seaboard late Thursday into Friday.
Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.
Surf: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
How far away is Subtropical Storm Nicole?
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over next five days
See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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