On paper, the Historic Triangle looks good, but one thing the pandemic has taught us is not to underestimate the virus that causes COVID-19.
Many of the metrics used to gauge the effects of COVID-19 locally show reason for optimism. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention identifies a so-called community level for COVID-19 for every municipality in the United States, ranking them as high, medium or low based on numbers of reported cases and hospitalizations.
According to the CDC, the community level for the localities making up the Greater Williamsburg area is low.
In James City County, Williamsburg and York County, new reported cases of the disease are a small fraction of what they were during periods of high transmission, such as winter 2021 and winter 2022. According to the Virginia Department of Health, the seven-day average of new cases as of Nov. 18 was 5.86 in James City County, 0.571 in Williamsburg and 5.429 in York County.
During the pandemic’s peaks, the seven-day average of new cases exceeded 200 in James City County, 12 in Williamsburg and 140 in York County.
Hospitalizations resulting from COVID-19 likewise remain relatively low. According to the CDC, new admissions to local hospitals due to confirmed COVID-19 cases over the week ending Nov. 16 have averaged 2.8 per 100,000 residents in James City County, Williamsburg and York County — a 46.4% drop from the previous week.
Deaths from COVID-19 in recent weeks have been rare — a far cry from the height of the pandemic, when local fatalities at some points exceeded 10 per week. To date, 251 residents of James City County, Williamsburg and York County have died of COVID-19, according to the health department.
Local vaccination rates present a more complicated picture. The health department considers individuals fully vaccinated if they have received two doses of the Pfizer and/or Moderna vaccines, or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Statewide, 73.2% of Virginians have been fully vaccinated. Exceeding that rate, 76.5% of James City County residents are fully vaccinated, as are 74.6% of people who live in York County. But Williamsburg, where only 58.3% of city residents are fully vaccinated, remains far behind the average.
Because of the nature of the virus, however, vaccinations are not a one-and-done precaution, experts point out.
“The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to evolve and mutate. This is expected,” said Tes La Dieu, population health community coordinator for the Hampton and Peninsula health districts.
It’s important that individuals follow through with booster shots, said Dr. Rebekah Ann Sensenig, an infectious disease physician with Riverside Health System. Unfortunately, Sensenig said, uptake of the latest bivalent booster — known to be effective against COVID-19 variants — is little more than 10% nationwide.
Sensenig acknowledged that there is a sort of a pandemic fatigue and people are tired of masking, limiting exposure to others and getting shots. But she said there are commonsense steps that can help prevent transmission and infection, and boosters are one of them.
Complicating the issue of the prevalence and transmission of COVID-19 in the local community is the shift in reporting and behavior for infected individuals, Sensenig said. Positive results of home tests, for example, are not often reported to public health officials. Also, mild cases of COVID-19 might be mistaken for a cold, prompting people to go about their day as usual.
That’s why core public health measures “remain extremely useful to control the virus and surge of cases,” La Dieu said.
These include covering the mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, washing hands frequently, staying home from work and school when sick, avoiding others with illnesses, improving ventilation and masking.
Extra precautions might be warranted for individuals at high risk, including the elderly and those who are immuno-compromised, have diabetes or are obese. People in a high-risk category should consider following the guidelines recommended by the CDC for localities where the community level is deemed medium or high, La Dieu said.
Local school divisions have retired the COVID-19 dashboards they used during the 2020-21 and 2021-22 school years to track and report staff and students quarantining as well as percentages of vaccinated individuals, but they still maintain a list of guidelines and practices they implement to curb transmission.
The Williamsburg-James City County school system continues to educate about precautions and encourages families and staff to stay home when under the weather, schools spokeswoman Kara Wall said. In addition, she said, HVAC and air purifier systems are regularly maintained in addition to custodians keeping the buildings clean.
The York County School Division’s Safe Return to School Plan includes precautions such as hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and optional mask wearing, said the division’s chief operating officer, Jim Carroll.
“The plan is updated as needed, at the minimum every six months,” he said.
Proactive measures are especially important now because other serious illnesses are present in the community and straining health care resources. In addition to COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, are circulating.
Widespread infections are affecting schools and workplaces. King William County Public Schools shut down on Nov. 17 and 18 because of teacher shortages due to illness.
In York County, Carroll said that the school division is seeing an rising numbers of cases, although officials are not tracking specifically what illnesses students and teachers are contracting.
“Anecdotally, we are seeing a rise in respiratory cases affecting students and staff as is being reported nationwide but cannot speak to any trends as we are not tracking it at that level,” he said.
Wall said the WJCC Schools COVID-19 dashboard may be relaunched if the region experiences high community levels of the disease, as defined by the CDC.
Sensenig, whose husband is an emergency room physician, said that hospitals, including children’s hospitals, are treating high numbers of patients with upper respiratory illnesses.
Sensenig said evidence points to a likely uptick in hospitals seeing COVID-19 patients as winter arrives. She said the good news is that the latest bivalent booster appears to provide a strong level of protection against the subvariants circulating in the population.
“The vaccine works. It protects against severe disease and death,” Sensenig said. “We’ve lost millions, and we don’t want to lose more.”
Editor’s note: After today, The Virginia Gazette will be pausing the coronavirus report on the front page.
Ben Swenson, ben.swenson05@gmail.com
