After two weeks of buildup, the Michigan-Michigan State game is almost here. The 115th meeting between the in-state rivals will take place under the lights at Michigan Stadium (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Michigan State has won two straight in the series and 10 of the last 14. But the Wolverines are 22.5-point favorites for a reason: They are 7-0 and ranked fourth in the country. The Spartans, meanwhile, are 3-4.
How will Saturday’s game play out? We’ve got beat writers from both sides armed with predictions below.
Matt Wenzel
Yes, Michigan State has won 10 of the last 14 in the rivalry and Mel Tucker is the first coach in program history to start 2-0 against the Wolverines. Yes, the Spartans have prioritized this game at a level the Wolverines obviously haven’t and found a way to pull off improbable wins. But the disparity between the teams both statistically and how they’ve looked through seven games is glaring.
Michigan State may find a way to keep it close but Michigan appears to simply have the superior team and should be highly motivated to snap its two-game skid in the rivalry. Matt Wenzel’s prediction: Michigan 35, Michigan State 17
Andrew Kahn
Jim Harbaugh said this week to “throw out the records” when Michigan plays Michigan State. He’s probably thinking about 2020 (when Michigan was a three-touchdown favorite and lost) or 2017 (Michigan was again a double-digit favorite at home and lost).
It’s clear the Spartans have been able to get up for this game and pull off some upsets. But let’s not forget 2019 (Michigan 44, Michigan State 10) or the year before (a 21-7 Michigan win that wasn’t that close). Sometimes one team is much better and it shows on the field. I think that’s the case this year. Michigan’s balanced offensive attack will give the Spartans problems all night, and Michigan State doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up. The rivalry factor keeps it a few points -- but not a few scores -- closer than it should. Andrew Kahn’s prediction: Michigan 37, Michigan State 17
Aaron McMann
I’ve learned not to assume anything with this game. Michigan (7-0) has the home field advantage, talent advantage, and is riding a ton of momentum after a blowout win over Penn State. But the Spartans always seem more energized for this game than the Wolverines, who, I might remind you, entered the 2020 game as 20-plus point underdogs and won outright.
I’m not picking Michigan State to win (I think Michigan controls much of the game on Saturday), but I think it ends up being closer than the point spread indicates. Michigan wins the game, but the Spartans do just enough to keep it within the number. Aaron’s McMann’s prediction: Michigan 31, Michigan State 14
Kyle Austin
I’ve seen this movie before. Michigan State has a tough start to the season, Michigan is rolling and there’s a huge point spread entering this game. More often than not, Michigan State has covered. I’m thinking most recently in 2016, when the Spartans were 24-point underdogs and lost by nine. Like that game, I don’t expect Michigan State to truly threaten to win this year, but the Spartans have shown often enough that they’ll play up in this game that I have to take the three touchdowns offered here.
The Spartans’ defense should be better with Xavier Henderson and Jacob Slade back, and on offense Jayden Reed looked more like himself the last time out. That won’t be enough to take down a talented Michigan team on the road, but it’ll be enough to cover. Kyle Austin’s prediction: Michigan 28, Michigan State 17