The Top 10 Landing Spots for Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts in MLB Free Agency

When Xander Bogaerts opted out of his contract Monday, it was the Boston Red Sox's loss and the free-agent market's gain.

And as such, it's no longer premature to speculate about Bogaerts' landing spots.

The 30-year-old shortstop spent the first 10 years of his career with Boston, earning four All-Star selections and two World Series rings. It was no great surprise when he declined to finish the rest of the six-year, $120 million contract he signed in April 2019.

Bogaerts had been due $60 million over the next three years. He clearly thinks he can do better than that, and he's not wrong.

If it's a question of what Bogaerts has that other shortstops don't, it starts with his bat.

He's a .292 career hitter who's hit over .300 four times, including by way of a .307 average in 2022. He also offers power, averaging 23 home runs per 162 games since 2016 with a peak of 33 in 2019.

Even though he last achieved double-digit stolen bases in 2017, Bogaerts is also a sneaky-good baserunner. The knock on him has typically concerned his defense, but not so much now after he earned Gold Glove Award consideration with his work in 2022.

Still, teams might not take it for granted that Bogaerts will stick at shortstop as he gets into his mid-30s. His career minus-51 defensive runs saved more or less capture his lack of defensive grace, and age isn't going to help him.

Yet despite this and the draft-pick compensation that will be tied to Bogaerts when he inevitably rejects a qualifying offer, the general expectation seems to be that Bogaerts is in line for a long-term deal that will clear $200 million. Jon Heyman of the New York Post, for example, talked to an expert who pegged Bogaerts for an eight-year, $225 million pact.

With all this in mind, let's weigh 10 hypothetical possibilities for Bogaerts based on how well they fit him from need, financial and competitive standpoints.

10. Colorado Rockies

SS rWAR in 2022: 0.6

Projected 2023 Payroll: $155 Million

We considered the New York Yankees, who could stand to upgrade over Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and the Los Angeles Angels, who badly need offense at shortstop, for this spot. But because of the Angels' looming sale and the Yankees' apparent satisfaction with IKF, we backed off.

Albeit strictly speculatively, we're offering the Rockies as a dark horse for Bogaerts instead. They'd have to stretch their budget, but he'd surely be a fix for the 77 wRC+ they got out of their shortstops in 2022. Plus, he'd be flanked by two above-average defenders in Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon.

9. Baltimore Orioles

SS rWAR in 2022: 3.4

Projected 2023 Payroll: $39 Million

Speaking of teams that struggled to get offense out of the position in 2022, suffice it to say that Jorge Mateo wasn't as good in the box as he was in the field. It was largely because of him that the Orioles got only a 76 wRC+ from their shortstops.

The bigger question is whether Bogaerts fits within Baltimore's budget, though it helps that said budget is bigger than it has been in recent years. General manager Mike Elias said in October that he has a green light to invest "in a different way" this offseason.

8. Atlanta

SS rWAR in 2022: 5.7

Projected 2023 Payroll: $185 Million

Though Atlanta is fresh off ranking first in shortstop WAR, the player who made that happen is also a free agent. The club obviously has the option of bringing back Dansby Swanson, but might it opt to replace him with Bogaerts instead?

Hey, it wouldn't be the first time Atlanta replaced a franchise mainstay with a fresh face. It's nonetheless hard to count on it, if for no other reason than a new deal for Swanson figures to put less weight on a payroll that's already pushing $200 million.

7. Minnesota Twins

SS rWAR in 2022: 5.6

Projected 2023 Payroll: $102 Million

Like Atlanta, the Twins also have a gaping hole at shortstop thanks to Carlos Correa's free agency. He's sure to be looking for something more substantial than the two years and $70.2 million he just opted out of.

Should Correa's price tag escalate well beyond what the Twins are willing to pay, Bogaerts will be there as a Plan B. In theory, anyway. In reality, even signing him would require the Twins to double the franchise-record free-agency payout that ensnared Correa in March.

6. St. Louis Cardinals

SS rWAR in 2022: 3.4

Projected 2023 Payroll: $157 Million

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters in October that the club's payroll would go up. Various reports (including one by Heyman) stating St. Louis will be in on the market's big shortstops therefore have to be taken seriously.

And yet a shortstop feels more like a want than a need relative to the deficiencies the Cardinals have at catcher and on the mound. And if they do splurge for a hitter, it should be one of the left-handed variety to complement Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

SS rWAR in 2022: 4.4

Projected 2023 Payroll: $130 Million

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the Chicago Cubs simply committed to Nico Hoerner as their franchise shortstop.

He's an excellent defender, tying for second among shortstops with 13 outs above average in 2022. He also hit .281 with a strikeout rate in the 98th percentile, and he added further value by way of 20 stolen bases in 22 tries.

At the same time, there's no denying the Cubs need impact hitters. Nor, for that matter, that they can make room for one at shortstop by moving Hoerner to second base.

This is where Bogaerts would come in, and signing him would have the added bonus of giving the Cubs legitimacy as contenders. Among active shortstops, only Correa and Corey Seager have played in more postseason games than Bogaerts.

The obligatory question is why the Cubs would settle for Bogaerts if Correa and Trea Turner are in their price range. And that should be the case, as the North Siders' projected payroll for next year is roughly $73 million short of the organization's $203.1 million peak from 2019.

SS rWAR in 2022: 5.0

Projected 2023 Payroll: $168 Million

Turner hit .307 with 31 home runs and 38 stolen bases in 212 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers across 2021 and 2022, but he's a free agent now, and Jon Hamm would like everyone to know just how awesome he is.

For what it's worth, though, here's how Bogaerts and Turner stack up since 2019:

• Xander Bogaerts: 18.5 rWAR
• Trea Turner: 18.2 rWAR

This is obviously oversimplifying the comparison between the two, but it does capture how the Dodgers wouldn't lose a whole lot if they swapped Turner for Bogaerts. Speed would be the only thing they'd have less of.

For his part, it's hard to imagine a more attractive destination for Bogaerts. In addition to the money they can offer, the Dodgers obviously have the appeal of being Major League Baseball's most consistent winner over the last decade.

Like with the Cubs, however, there's the question of why the Dodgers would settle for Bogaerts when they can easily afford Turner or Correa. As it happens, Heyman reported they are interested in the latter despite the 2017-related baggage he would bring.

SS rWAR in 2022: 5.4

Projected 2023 Payroll: $130 Million

If the Red Sox had their way, they would have extended Bogaerts before he had the chance to exercise his opt-out.

Though that didn't work out, it's clear retaining him is still a priority.

There seems to be more than enough room on the payroll to accommodate a new deal for Bogaerts. The club's projected figure is about $91 million south of its year-end payroll for 2022. By average annual value, it's also about $84 million south of next year's $233 million luxury-tax threshold.

But as good as this fit looks on paper, one does recall that Bogaerts publicly expressed doubts about the direction of the Red Sox after their puzzling trade of Christian Vázquez in August. As such, there'd better be more to their sales pitch than just the money.

To that end, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported one source said, "It doesn't seem like they're going to spend big on a shortstop." Even though Trevor Story's diminished arm strength paints the idea as a bad one, Boston is apparently comfortable with moving him from second base to shortstop.

SS rWAR in 2022: 1.1

Projected 2023 Payroll: $110 Million

It was only last year that the San Francisco Giants extended Brandon Crawford amid a season in which he finished fourth in the voting for the National League MVP Award.

Nevertheless, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported in September that the Giants would "love" to land one of free-agency's top shortstops.

That indicates they're comfortable with moving Crawford, who largely bears responsibility for the 78 wRC+ that San Francisco got from its shortstops in 2022, to another position. It's also indicative of how much money the organization has to play with. Its projected payroll is well south of the franchise's pinnacle of $200.5 million from 2018.

In past years, there would have been the question of why any hitter would willingly sign up to play at Oracle Park. But it's been a lot less oppressive since the team moved in the fences two years ago, even to a point where it played friendly to right-handed hitters last season.

If Bogaerts wants to win, though, he might be able to do better. The Giants may have been victors 107 times in 2021, but their status as contenders looks uncertain following their slip to 81-81 this year.

SS rWAR in 2022: 0.6

Projected 2023 Payroll: $179 Million

Bryson Stott is not the reason the Philadelphia Phillies couldn't outlast the Houston Astros in the World Series, but he didn't exactly help in going 0-for-14.

That performance could have the Phillies feeling even more determined to upgrade at shortstop than they already were. In June, Nightengale tabbed them as a player in the offseason shortstop market, and Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe linked them to Bogaerts in September.

At the risk of straying into understatement, the fit is very good.

As a bat-first, glove-second player, Bogaerts would fit right in to a Phillies lineup that prioritizes offense over defense. And he would stand to thrive at Citizens Bank Park, which is an even better place for right-handed home run hitters than Fenway Park.

Plus, it wouldn't be for the first time if Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski threw a bunch of money at Bogaerts. He's the executive who made Bogaerts' $120 million deal with Boston happen in 2019.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.