Brooks and Capehart on factors that could determine outcome of the midterms

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• Judy Woodruff:

  With fewer than 100 hours remaining before the first midterm election sites close on Tuesday evening, we make one final pre-Election Day turn to the analysis of Brooks and Capehart.

  That is New York Times columnist David Brooks and Jonathan Capehart, associate editor for The Washington Post.

  So, 100 hours, we have done the math.

  (LAUGHTER)

• David Brooks:

  I'm not sleeping. I don't want to miss a single second of it.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  We're going to — we're all going to be ready.

  So here we are. We looked it up. I think it's well over a billion dollars that's been spent in ads, mostly television ads, not to mention what the candidates themselves are saying on the stump.

  David, what have we learned in all this?

  (LAUGHTER)

• David Brooks:

  I'm not sure ad and learn, things go together. what have we been harangued at?

  First, I mean, they're doing different subjects. Primarily, the Democrats are spending a lot on abortion, as you would expect. Democrat — Republicans are spending a lot on the border and, as you would expect, on inflation.

  The one subject where they're both spending the same is crime. And they're both spending a lot on crime. And Republicans are doing the soft-on-crime things. And Democrats are just hugging any cop they can find. They're doing these ads where they — the candidate appears and gets endorsed by a police officer and saying, no, this guy believes in funding the police.

  Just — so they're doing their own issues. But, primarily, they're in different universes, as you would expect. The one thing I — this is my annual peeve — ad spending really matters when your candidate is unknown. Once you have spent $5 million, $10 million, all the rest is just making the rubble bounce. I really think there's very little evidence it makes any big difference once the candidate is well-known.

  So my advice to people who want to give money to well-funded campaigns, send it to a homeless guy.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  Jonathan, I mean, what are you hearing? What are you learning from all this?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Well, the other thing that you — sure, it buys you name recognition, but it also can turn people off, just being inundated, bombarded by all the campaign ads.

  But I want to talk about the other stuff that we're learning, which is all this dark money and these other third-party organizations that are also flooding the airwaves with ads. And the Human Rights Campaign did a report where Stephen Miller had — the former Donald Trump aide, has a group called America First Legal.

  They're running ads in 25 states, political ads targeting transgender children. And they're doing this specifically on Black and Spanish-language radio in key states around the country. Another organization, Citizens for Sanity, by other former Trump administration people, $20 million TV ads in key races around the country.

  What we're learning in these ad wars is that not only are the candidates, they're arguing their positions on crime or the economy or threats to democracy, but then you have all these other organizations and folks out there who are trying to game the system in making people afraid of their fellow Americans.

  And I think it's part of the corrosion of our political discourse here.

• Judy Woodruff:

  There's definitely a fear factor this year and again, and both sides seem to think it works.

• David Brooks:

  Yes, well, somehow, we should have a — we have a system where — a candidate runs an ad, you can hold them accountable. You can vote against the person.

  With these things, you — there's nobody to hold accountable. And then I do think there's been a culture of apocalypticism. I don't know what the right word is. I mean, it started with American carnage. And you can — if you live in the media world and in the Internet world, you can believe that this country is just dissolving at the seams.

  And we have our problems. But I was out in Central Pennsylvania this week. There's still, like, happy people going to diners. Like, not everybody's getting mugged every second.

  (LAUGHTER)

• David Brooks:

  And so I think this apocalyptic mood is used by extremists to gin up support for the emotional mood they want you to have.

  OK, you're about to disagree.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Jonathan Capehart:

  No, I'm sorry, David, but, I mean, I hear what you're talking — I hear what you're saying, but there's a reason why some people — and I'm thinking about people center and center-left — who look at what's happening, in terms of the Supreme Court taking away a woman's right to choose, the Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas saying, oh, and by the way, we should go after same-sex marriage and privacy and access to contraception.

  There's a reason why people feel apocalyptic and feel like things are running off the rails, because they are personally at risk. They see that this election is probably their one of two shots to stop the — what feels like a slide into an America that — not that they don't want to live in, but that they don't recognize and isn't the America that has been promised to us.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And we have — so we have been talking about the paid ads, but we do have candidates out on the stump, including President Biden.

  He was in Florida this week. And I just want to share — or show everybody a little bit of what the argument was that he was making and, and some of what Governor DeSantis had to say about his visit.

  Here it is.

• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL):

  When people ask me my reaction to having Joe Biden in the state of Florida, are you telling me…

  (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

• Gov. Ron DeSantis:

  … he's coming down here and reminding Floridians that the Democrats in this state vote with him 100 percent of the time?

  Spend the rest of the campaign in Florida. We will pay for you.

  Joe Biden, President of the United States: Five days, five days until one of the most important elections in our lifetime.

  I think democracy is at risk right now. There's too much political violence. There's too much intimidation. There are more than 300 election deniers on the Republican tickets this year for state, federal and local government.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And speaking of your point, Jonathan, about the choice people are making and what people want to point out, here's just a short clip of New York Governor Kathy Hochul, who's facing a closer challenge than anybody expected from Republican Lee Zeldin.

  Here's Kathy Hochul.

• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY):

  What happened in 2022? For some, let it be a reminder that the rights that were so long and hard fought for can be stripped away by a Supreme Court appointed by a president who never should have been there.

  And complacency takes hold, and people feel like I don't need to vote, because somebody else will do it, it doesn't matter.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, David, I want you to pick up on that.

  What are the choices that people are making this year, whether they fill in the R or the D on their ballot?

• David Brooks:

  Yes, I'm actually struck by how much demographics is driving the election more than individual choice, it seems.

  I mean, there are two long trends that have really — I think, shaping this race. The first one is the people without college degrees are going more Republican, and people with college degrees are going more Democratic. So, we're just seeing this vast bifurcation by education.

  And Democrats have tried hard to win back some working-class voters, but they're — it's not working. And so the numbers are — the gap is getting even wider.

  The second thing, in a series of polls in the last week, an NPR poll, Hispanics' support for Democrats is eroding as well. And so, to me, it's these demographic forces that are really, not only in this election, but over the last several elections, are making it possible for the Democrats — for the Republicans to at least draw even, and…

• Judy Woodruff:

  What about that?

  And how do you see the choice, how much it matters what people are…

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Oh, the choice does matter.

  And it's great to see the clips, particularly Governor DeSantis in Florida, making a reasonable political argument: Hey, President Biden, come on down. You're not very popular here.

  It's a base — it's a base call. He's — DeSantis wants President Biden there because it reminds Republicans, and maybe will get them out to vote.

  But, also, the president being in Florida and talking about the election deniers who are on the ballot and the choices that voters will have to make not just in Florida, but around the country about what kind of country they want to have, that's also a base move.

  The president is trying to get out the Democratic Party faithful, get them out to the polls, if they haven't already early-voted, get them to the polls on Tuesday. And Governor Hochul, she's doing — she's doing the same thing.

  The idea that she is in a tight race…

• Judy Woodruff:

  Yes.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  … for governor in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1 statewide, 7-1 in New York City, should be alarming.

• Judy Woodruff:

  It comes back to — again, I mean, we have been talking about this for weeks, maybe longer, David, but Republicans making this argument that Democrats, they have messed up the economy, they have messed up — crime is worse, what you were just — the points you were making a minute ago.

  Why haven't, from your perspective, Democrats been able to make a stronger argument to counter that?

• David Brooks:

  Yes, it's been a mystery to me.

  I think they were lured into a false sense of security that abortion really was going to be an issue that would carry them across the finish line. And for a lot of people, it is, but for the people who are more independent, where abortion is not the number one issue for them, it hasn't.

  And so we have seen — as the people have focused on crime, immigration and inflation, Republicans have started to do well. I think immigration is just a huge void for the Democratic Party. They do not have a clean story to tell. They do not have a policy that makes people feel secure.

  I was picking up on this last year. You go down to Texas and talk to Democrats, especially in South Texas, and they were just saying, we're just being overrun. We can't handle as many people are here. And somebody's got to help us.

  And people feel abandoned and unhelped. And Democrats have begun to shift on crime. They are really pushing back against defund the police.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Yes.

• David Brooks:

  But, on immigration, it's still a void. And it's just a major, major issue for a lot of people.

• Judy Woodruff:

  How do you see it?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Look, I — we will not know what's been moving the electorate until after folks have — the votes have been counted and we know.

• Judy Woodruff:

  True.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  I don't think we should underestimate the power of the threat to democracy and people — and the way people are thinking about their choices.

  Folks are able to do — have several thoughts in their heads at the same time. I interviewed Josh Shapiro, attorney general, who's going — who's got a monster lead for governor against Doug Mastriano. And he weaves his pitch. It's, we have got threats to democracy, and if we don't — if we don't do something about that, then we can't also do something about the economy, we can't then also protect other rights and try to help restore some rights that were taken from the — from the Supreme Court.

  There are a lot of things that are — that are cleaving the electorate. And this is, again, their first of two opportunities to send a message or to send people to various places that they want — that they want something done.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Before we turn to one other question, what are you — what are you seeing, hearing on the campaign trail that is uplifting, David…

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  … that should lift our spirits?

• David Brooks:

  Let's lift our spirits?

  I just like elections. Frankly, we in the media get to control the conversation most of the time. But when the elections happen, a lot of people get to control the conversation. When Glenn Youngkin won, we learned how upset people were about schools, and you sort of knew that, but you feel it.

  I think we have learned how crime is just a big issue for a lot of people. The border is a big issue for a lot of people. So the conversation always shifts in the fall. And I like the way that — the way that shifts, because it reminds us what the people really want to hear about.

  And then, finally, I think Tim Ryan in Ohio is running probably the most impressive campaign, a Midwestern, working-class Democrat, union, tough on China, tough on trade. I think that's the profile if the Democratic Party as a future in places like Ohio. I think he's doing an excellent job.

  I'm not sure it'll — he will win, but I think he's doing an excellent job.

• Judy Woodruff:

  You're not the only one who thinks so. I interviewed Liz Cheney this week in Cleveland.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  She endorsed him. And she's a Republican.

  All right, uplifting.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Uplifting.

  Again, Josh Shapiro, it's wonderful to talk to someone who is able to articulate their vision of where they want to take — take their state. Wes Moore, Democratic candidate for governor of Maryland, another person with a monster lead, but he is also able to articulate why he's running and why he wants to lead the state of Florida (sic).

  And I also think that Congressman Tim Ryan, no matter what happens on Tuesday, if he wins, phenomenal. If he doesn't, he has provided a road map, I think, for Democrats in various places, like, this is how you talk about issues that aren't just up here and maybe ephemeral for folks, but here's our message on the economy, here's our message on crime, here's our message on various other things where, as Democrats, we're not afraid to talk about these things, where we will lean into them.

  And I don't think Democrats are as afraid to talk about crime as we talk about around this table. It's just they could do a better job.

• Judy Woodruff:

  OK. Well, we stand — I stand corrected.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  I know we have only got a little bit of time left, but can't let you both go without asking you about the Supreme Court argument this week on affirmative action in college.

  It sounds like, David, that these six conservative justices, they're going to do away with affirmative action. What does that say, if that's…

  (CROSSTALK)

• David Brooks:

  Yes, well, I — the best outcome, to me, is we shift to a more class-based affirmative action, and we get to a spot — the crime in higher ed is that a lot of universities, elite universities have more people from the top 1 percent than the bottom 60 percent.

  And if we switch to a class-based affirmative action, we could help a lot of the people who are now covered by affirmative action because they're in under — they're in underrepresented groups or poorer economic groups. And we could also diversify and get some more ideological diversity, geographic diversity, and income diversity.

  So, I'm hoping that's how, if this happens, which I don't support, but, if it does, I think there is an option to make a better university system.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Just 20 seconds. Sorry.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Oh, I'd be really shocked if the Supreme Court did anything that would allow any piece of affirmative action to survive. With the 6-3 conservative supermajority, it's gone.

  And I don't know how you institute what you were just talking about, but we will talk about it another time.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  We will talk about it another time. We will hear from them on this in a couple of months.

  All right, it's Election Day Tuesday.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Yes.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Jonathan Capehart, David Brooks, thank you both.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Thanks, Judy.

• David Brooks:

  Thank you.