Nicole has transitioned to a tropical storm in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and is now strengthening ahead of the significant rain, wind and coastal flooding impacts that will begin spreading across Florida and the southeastern US by Wednesday.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 34 counties as Nicole is forecast to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane along the state’s east coast Wednesday night or early Thursday.
Nicole is a very large storm, so regardless of its strength as it approaches Florida and the southeastern US, the threat of heavy rain and flooding will extend all the way to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Saturday.
Here’s a closer look at Tropical Storm Nicole.
Where is Tropical Storm Nicole?
As of Tuesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Nicole was centered more than 400 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida.
Nicole has strengthened and is now packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph as it moves toward the west. Winds of 40 mph or higher are extending outward up to 380 miles from Nicole’s center, indicative of its large size.
Tropical Storm Nicole is the 14th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
Where are watches and warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Nicole?
A Hurricane Warning has been issued along the east coast of Florida from Boca Raton to the Flagler/Volusia County line. In the northwestern Bahamas, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island are also under a Hurricane Warning.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued farther south along the east coast of Florida from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, including Lake Okeechobee. Along the east coast of North Florida, a Hurricane Watch is also in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County line to Ponte Vedra Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton in Florida and from the Flagler/Volusia County line in Florida to Altamaha Sound in Georgia. In the northwestern Bahamas, Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera have also been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef along the east coast of Florida, as well as from north of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River along the west coast and Big Bend of Florida.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Palm Beach in Florida to Altamaha Sound in Georgia and from the mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown in Florida. This means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from south of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach in Florida, from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River in Florida and from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River in Georgia. This means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Nicole?
Tropical Storm Nicole is forecast to continue strengthening in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the next day or so. Nicole is predicted to become a Category 1 hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph on Wednesday near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a hurricane as it approaches the east coast of Florida on Wednesday night.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, Tropical Storm Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas through Tuesday night and move near or over those islands on Wednesday. Nicole is then expected to approach the east coast of Florida on Wednesday night and make landfall overnight or early Thursday.
On Thursday and Thursday night, Nicole’s center is expected to move across Central and North Florida and into South Georgia, but its far-reaching rain, wind and coastal flooding impacts will be spreading well to the north across the Southeast.
“Notice that once we get past Friday morning, this storm is going to book it up the East Coast,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “We are going to see a very fast hit from Virginia all the way up into the Northeast.”
What are the impacts of Tropical Storm Nicole?
Tropical Storm Nicole is a very large storm, so regardless of its exact track, widespread impacts from coastal flooding, high winds, heavy rainfall, life-threatening surf and rip currents and beach erosion are likely across much of Florida, the Southeast and portions of the northwestern Bahamas.
The threat of damaging hurricane-force winds (74-plus mph) will also become a significant threat if Nicole intensifies into a hurricane, particularly in the northwestern Bahamas and near where it makes landfall along the east coast of Florida.
Hurricane-force winds are expected across the Hurricane Warning areas of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday before spreading toward the Hurricane Warning areas along the southeastern and east-central coast of Florida by late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are also expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning areas of Florida and Georgia as soon as early Wednesday.
Additionally, a dangerous storm surge is expected in the Storm Surge Warning areas along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves capable of significant beach erosion.
The combination of the storm surge and higher-than-normal astronomical tides will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- North Palm Beach, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge: 3 to 5 feet
- Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River in Georgia: 2 to 4 feet
- St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown in Florida: 2 to 4 feet
- Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach in Florida: 2 to 4 feet
- Anclote River to the Suwannee River in Florida: 2 to 4 feet
- Middle of Long Boat Key to the Anclote River in Florida, including Tampa Bay: 1 to 3 feet
- North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach in Florida, including Biscayne Bay: 1 to 2 feet
In the northwestern Bahamas, storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds.
Tropical Storm Nicole will also produce heavy rainfall across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday. Flash and urban flooding are likely, along with possible river rises on portions of the St. Johns River.
Between 3 and 5 inches of rain is expected across the northwestern Bahamas and the eastern, central and northern Florida Peninsula. Localized amounts as high as 7 inches are possible in some areas.
The FOX Forecast Center says the heavy rain from Nicole is then expected to spread farther northward up the Eastern Seaboard from Thursday into the weekend. That includes the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Southeastern Georgia and portions of South Carolina could pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain on Thursday and Thursday night. Flash, urban and small stream flooding are possible in these areas.
At least an inch or two of rain is likely across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Saturday, which could result in some flash flooding or river flooding in those regions.
“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its Key Messages for Nicole. “These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida Peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.”
What is the difference between a tropical storm and a subtropical storm?
Nicole was initially classified as a subtropical storm on Monday and early Tuesday before making the transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning.
A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph.
A subtropical storm is sort of a hybrid storm, meaning it has characteristics of both a typical low-pressure system and a tropical cyclone. However, unlike the typical low, a subtropical storm gets a lot of its energy from warm ocean water and has maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
If either of these types of systems generates winds of at least 74 mph, they become hurricanes.
A system becomes a post-tropical cyclone once it loses its tropical characteristics. However, these types of storms can still pose a danger with heavy rain and high winds.
