What can Tallahassee expect from Nicole? Tropical storm watches up for north Florida counties
William L. HatfieldWEDNESDAY LIVE UPDATES:Here's when Tallahassee, Leon County could see Tropical Storm Nicole's effects
4 p.m. UPDATE: Tropical storm watches have been extended to now include the east Big Bend to the Leon and Jefferson county border and all the way up to the Georgia border. In the latest advisory, inland tropical watches were posted for Jefferson, Madison, Dixie, Taylor and Lafayette counties. Meanwhile, a storm surge watch has been issued for the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River. The area could see between 2 to 4 feet of surge. Areas from the Ochlockonee to Indian Pass could see between 1 to 2 feet of surge.
Earlier story
If a strengthening Tropical Storm Nicole sticks to her current track, the late season gale will bring a bit of bluster and possibly some much needed rain to Tallahassee.
As of Tuesday morning, the center of Nicole was located about 500 miles east of West Palm Beach.
Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall along Florida's East Coast, possibly Wednesday or Thursday.
Current estimates put Nicole's winds at 75 mph within 48 hours, making it a Category 1 hurricane at landfall. Most of the east coast of Florida is under a hurricane warning and tropical storm warning.
MORE ON NICOLE:
Tuesday morning, tropical storm watches went up for parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast and the Big Bend as Nicole may punch through the peninsula and re-emerge in the Gulf of Mexico. The watch, which includes Coastal Dixie, Jefferson, Taylor and Wakulla counties, is in effect from north of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River. It also includes St. Marks and stretches into the Apalachicola Bay.
The 'wild card' to watch
Nicole transitioned from a subtropical system into a full-blown tropical system Tuesday morning with more strengthening in the forecast. But limited impacts to Florida’s capital city are dependent on when the system curves back east.
“The timing of when that recurvature happens is uncertain at this point,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Israel Gonzalez. “That’s really the wild card for us.”
Tallahassee has been in the forecast cone since the first forecast.
Unless the storm tracks further west, there should only be minimal impacts in terms of rain and wind. Gonzalez said to expect breezy conditions this afternoon and over the next couple days, with gusts between 20 and 30 mph. The current forecast states that Tallahassee has between a 3% and 10% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds.
Rain chances will also ramp up Thursday afternoon and taper off by Friday morning when Nicole lifts away from the region. The forecast calls for a little bit over an inch of precipitation but that remains very “track dependent.”
Even if it does emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are not conducive to intensification amid wind sheer and cooler waters due to an early frost in North Florida.
'Not a Kate situation'
If Nicole hits the East Coast as a hurricane, this would be only the third time in history a hurricane has made landfall in Florida in November.
Hurricane Kate, which struck North Florida on Nov. 21, 1985, still holds the record as the latest United States hurricane landfall.
A rare storm:November Pain: Hurricane making landfall in Florida this late in season very rare
WeatherTiger hurricane forecast:Hurricane forecast: Full moon, king tide and far-reaching Nicole a dangerous combination | WeatherTiger
Kate came ashore near Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle as a minimal Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph.
“This is not a Kate situation,” Gonzalez said, noting that precipitation would be very welcome.
“Given the prolonged dry conditions we’ve had dating back to September, heavy rainfall is not a particular concern at this time. But, of course, that can change.”
Reach Editor William Hatfield at whatfield@tallahassee.com.
Never miss a story: Subscribe to the Tallahassee Democrat using the link at the top of the page.