Bedlam 2022: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State preview, prediction
One of college football's most intense rivalries picks up this weekend as Oklahoma welcomes Oklahoma State as Bedlam renews in Week 12.
Coming in, the Cowboys are still technically in the mix to make the Big 12 Championship Game, despite losing two straight games recently following a strong 6-1 start, and need some help to move up in the standings.
OU has moved to the back-burner of the college football conscience this season, Brent Venables' first on the job as head coach, at just 5-5 on the year and in danger of potentially missing a bowl game for the first time in 24 years.
Place your bets: College football picks against the spread for Week 12
Watch as much of Bedlam while you can: the rivalry appears to be winding down as the Sooners prepare to bolt for the SEC and Oklahoma State saying it's not going to hurry re-scheduling this game once that happens.
Bedlam 2022: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State preview, prediction
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State football predictions
How to watch
When: Sat., Nov. 19
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Point spread: Oklahoma comes into the game as 7.5 point favorites, a half-point movement in OU's favor since the open, according to SI Sportsbook.
Total: 66 points
Moneyline: Oklahoma State +235, Oklahoma -292
FPI prediction: The Sooners have the 61.4 percent edge to win the game outright, according to the Football Power Index computer model that predicts winners by simulating a team's season 20,000 times. OSU has the 38.6 percent chance to win.
Bedlam 2022: Keys to victory
USA Today Images
Oklahoma State: The health of Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders is key to getting this offense working at full capacity. He's been dealing with a shoulder injury for much of the season, but was able to come off the bench last week and help beat Iowa State. Despite a strong defensive performance, especially near the line, for most of the year, OSU now ranks last in the Big 12 in total production. It needs Sanders to work the intermediate portion of the field and get more from a backfield that averages just 3.5 ypc and doesn't have a rusher over 600 yards.
Oklahoma: Despite its poor defensive output this season, the Sooners could create some breathing room against a Cowboy offense that has basically stopped functioning, scoring 20 points just once in the last three weeks. OU has forced 8 takeaways in the last month and can help put this offense in good field position. Dillon Gabriel is 2nd in the Big 12 with 16 passing TDs and his top target is Marvin Mims, who is 2nd in the league with 77.6 yards per game. Both go against an OSU defense that ranks the worst in the conference. Eric Gray is third in the league with 1,113 rushing yards and is 6th nationally with 6.7 ypc.
Fast Facts
+ Oklahoma State is 128th nationally with 289.8 passing yards allowed per game
+ Sooners are 9-1 in their last 10 in Bedlam, scoring at least 33 points each time
+ OSU is 121st nationally in total defense and red zone defense
+ OU is 1st in Big 12 with 221.4 rushing yards per game
+ Cowboys are seeking to win their 10th out of 13 regular season conference games
+ Oklahoma is 6th nationally with 8.0 tackles for loss per game
+ Cowboys are 74-0 when allowing 20 or fewer points under Mike Gundy
+ Sooners are 127th out of 131 in FBS in time of possession (26:15)
+ OSU is 82-9 under Gundy when scoring 40-plus points
+ Oklahoma has scored on 32 of its 36 red zone chances (26 TD, 6 FG)
+ Oklahoma State is 41-3 when keeping opponents under 300 yards under Gundy
+ OU is 19th nationally with 2.6 plays of 30 yards per game
+ Cowboys have won 21 of their last 26 games
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Prediction
One of the Sooners' relative strengths on an otherwise subpar defense has been its ability to consistently get its tacklers behind the line and create negative plays.
That's a crucial advantage for Oklahoma against a Cowboys offense that has struggled taking advantage of its speed at the point of attack.
That, combined with Gabriel's ability to throw his receivers open in space behind the linebackers and the Sooners' capacity running the ball, should be enough for OU to move into bowl eligibility, but not enough to cover this spread.
College Football HQ Prediction: Oklahoma 30, Oklahoma State 27
College Football Playoff Rankings
According to CFP Selection Committee
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- TCU
- Tennessee
- LSU
- USC
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Utah
- Penn State
- Oregon
- North Carolina
- Ole Miss
- Kansas State
- UCLA
- Washington
- Notre Dame
- Florida State
- UCF
- Tulane
- Oklahoma State
- Oregon State
- NC State
- Cincinnati
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams