10 MLB Stars Ready for Bounce-Back Seasons in 2023
January 30, 202310 MLB Stars Ready for Bounce-Back Seasons in 2023
A new Major League Baseball season is on the way, and more than a few players around the league are hoping that it will be a more pleasant experience than the last one.
For our part, we want to look at 10 who can make bounce-back seasons happen in 2023.
This kind of exercise naturally comes with a question of how to define a "bounce back." We settled for focusing on players whose bad seasons in 2022 basically came out of nowhere. Whether it was because of injuries or simple ineffectiveness, they just plain fell under expectations.
We opted not to include players who are on runs of multiple disappointing seasons, such as Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. We also sided against including players who sustained major injuries in 2022 but who were effective when they did play, such as Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon. Debatable, we know, but these are our rules and we're sticking to 'em.
Now then, let's start with five hitters and end with five pitchers.
SS Javier Báez, Detroit Tigers
Age: 30
2022 Stats: 144 G, 590 PA, 17 HR, 9 SB, .238 AVG, .278 OBP, .393 SLG
Javier Báez was coming off a par-for-the-course kind of season when the Tigers inked him to a six-year, $140 million contract last winter. He slammed 31 home runs and stole 18 bases in 2021, all while mostly holding it down at shortstop.
As for what happened to Báez in 2022, well, there's at least one silver lining. He had been a threat against fastballs in his best seasons, and he was even more of one last year as he racked up a career-best plus-10 run value against four-seamers.
Trouble is, opposing pitchers didn't play along. They didn't stop throwing Baez four-seamers altogether, but they apparently noticed his massive struggles against sliders and upped his diet accordingly:
It's a wonder this didn't happen sooner, and not just because Báez can be such a good fastball hitter. Sliders (and other bendy pitches, to be sure) end up outside the strike zone more often than fastballs, after all, and Báez's willingness to keep his swings inside the zone is notoriously nonexistent. Since 2016, no hitter has gone fishing more than he has.
If there's a reason for hope, it's that new Tigers general manager Scott Harris has overhauled the club's hitting coaching staff in such a way that may help Báez. The newly cozy dimensions at Comerica Park will certainly help him, and he can also hope for better health after dealing with thumb, arm, back and knee injuries last year.
RF Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 30
2022 Stats: 136 G, 558 PA, 13 HR, 7 SB, .263 AVG, .305 OBP, .389 SLG
Nick Castellanos had a tendency for streakiness between 2016 and 2020. That finally changed in 2021, as he was good pretty much from wire to wire in racking up a .309/.362/.576 slash line and 34 home runs.
Go figure, then, that the best moments of Castellanos' debut season with the Phillies came via his glove. He made several huge catches during the club's World Series run, including a game-saver in the first contest of the Fall Classic.
As for what befell Castellanos' bat, he ran into the same complication as Báez in Detroit: opposing pitchers, clearly realizing that they were facing an excellent fastball hitter, took to throwing him more sliders instead. Also similar to Báez, Castellanos lacks the discipline to simply take those pitches and force pitchers back in the strike zone.
More than anything, though, the injury bug would seem to the real culprit behind Castellanos' missing offense. He sustained a bruised wrist on May 5, after which his OPS went from .884 to .653 with a corresponding drop in his average exit velocity:
This is no excuse to ignore concerns relating to Castellanos' approach, but it's reason enough to believe that better health is all he needs to have a better year in 2023.
LF Joey Gallo, Minnesota Twins
Age: 29
2022 Stats: 126 G, 410 PA, 19 HR, 3 SB, .160 AVG, .280 OBP, .357 SLG
As if slamming 81 home runs across 2017 and 2018 wasn't enough, Joey Gallo further evolved and posted the fifth-most fWAR of any American League outfielder between the start of 2019 and the trade that sent him to the New York Yankees in July 2021.
How ugly things got for Gallo after that is no big secret, but here are the numbers anyway: 184 games, a .160 average and an 89 wRC+.
One thing that unequivocally bodes well for Gallo heading into 2023 are the new regulations on defensive shifts. Teams shifted their infields 87.5 percent of the time against him between 2017 and 2022, and he also saw the most four-man outfields of any hitter in that span.
Yet the shift alone isn't going to rescue Gallo's production. How the defense lines up only matters so much when your strikeout percentage is consistently in the mid-to-high 30s. And more recently, the extreme exit velocities he had in his best seasons just haven't been there:
Gallo is still a big fella at 6'5", 250 pounds who hasn't yet hit the age-30 threshold, and he's had only minor injuries over the last two seasons. This is to say there is no readily available explanation for where all his hard contact has gone, so his comments upon signing with the Twins about struggling "mentally" over the last two years holds some weight. He really might just need the change of scenery.
DH Nelson Cruz, San Diego Padres
Age: 42
2022 Stats: 124 G, 507 PA, 10 HR, 4 SB, .234 AVG, .313 OBP, .337 SLG
Nelson Cruz can relate to Gallo in the sense that things were going just fine until he was traded midway through the 2021 season.
Cruz went into that year having averaged 45 home runs per 162 games over the previous seven seasons, and he was on track for potentially another 40-homer season when the Twins sent him to the Tampa Bay Rays. Since then, however, he's played in 179 games and hit just 23 home runs with a .675 OPS.
The Padres nonetheless got a good deal in signing Cruz for just $1 million in guaranteed money, particularly in light of a simple explanation for his struggles: He couldn't see. He had been dealing with inflammation of his left eye, for which he had surgery to correct in October.
Still, some healthy skepticism is warranted here. One figures a hitter having vision issues would strike out more, and Cruz's strikeout rate basically remained stable in 2021 and 2022. It was more so his contact quality that suffered, and especially against fastballs:
It's reason enough to wonder whether the downturn in Cruz's numbers has less to do with vision and more to do with age finally coming for his bat speed. Then again, healthy skepticism is not to be confused with absolute truth. If it really was his left eye all along, he could be in for a return to form in 2023.
LF/DH Jesse Winker, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 29
2022 Stats: 136 G, 547 PA, 14 HR, 0 SB, .219 AVG, .344 OBP, .344 SLG
By way of a 140 OPS+ that put him ahead of luminaries like Manny Machado, Giancarlo Stanton and José Abreu, Jesse Winker was one of MLB's best hitters across 2020 and 2021.
But as much as his absent production, Winker's time with the Seattle Mariners in 2022 figures to be remembered for the bad impression he made. To hear it from Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Winker's teammates were "tired of putting up with him by the end of the year."
The Mariners might nonetheless have chosen to keep Winker if he'd kept hitting, and the silver lining there was his discipline. He posted a chase rate in the 99th percentile to fuel an impressive 15.4 walk percentage.
The bigger issue was Winker's contact quality, or lack thereof. He got under the ball well enough with a 16.8-degree average launch angle. But relative to 2021, his exit velocity fell by 2.9 mph and his hard-hit rate tumbled 12.8 percent.
The plus side is that Winker played in a career-high 136 games even despite knee and neck issues that both necessitated surgery. The Brewers can hope that such things explain the fall-off in his contact quality, and also that American Family Field does its part to rejuvenate his bat. Winker has said he's liked hitting there in the past, and his career 1.032 OPS at Milwaukee's digs bears that out.
RHP Ian Anderson, Atlanta
- 2020: Minus-3.9
- 2021: Minus-12.9
- 2022: Plus-3.7
Age: 24
2022 Stats: 22 GS, 111.2 IP, 115 H (12 HR), 97 K, 54 BB, 5.00 ERA
This time last year, it looked like Ian Anderson was going to be a mainstay in Atlanta's rotation for years to come. His first 30 regular-season starts had yielded a 3.25 ERA, while his first eight outings in the playoffs saw him put up a historic 1.26 ERA.
To go from that to demoted to Triple-A in August to now having to prove himself worthy of even the No. 5 spot in Atlanta's rotation is...a journey, to say the least.
More than anything, his struggles trace back to a four-seam fastball that went from beating hitters to getting crushed by them. As demonstrated by run value:
Velocity was part of the problem, particularly earlier in the year. But Anderson saw his problem as being more approach-based, specifically with regard to his aggression in throwing strikes. He indeed didn't get strike one as often, and that seems to have led to his fastball getting over-exposed. Even though he threw 169 fewer pitches in 2022 than he did in 2021, he threw more fastballs to hitters when they were ahead in the count.
The sense here is of a young, talented pitcher who was made to take his lumps for the first time. Provided he earns the chance, it's an experience Anderson should be able to bounce back from.
RHP José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 32 GS, 172.0 IP, 199 H (29 HR), 149 K, 45 BB, 5.23 ERA
José Berríos was a two-time All-Star between 2017 and 2021, all the while pitching to a 3.74 ERA with 3.5 times as many strikeouts as walks. So, who could blame the Blue Jays for inking him to a seven-year, $131 million extension in Nov. 2021?
For that matter, who can explain what the heck happened to the righty in 2022?
It really was an odd thing, as basically everything took a turn for the worse even as key factors like his fastball velocity and the break on his curveball remained in shipshape. He simply got hit harder, and especially when he threw a four-seam fastball that was eventually saddled with a .349 average and a .618 slugging percentage.
Ben Clemens of FanGraphs wrote in August that opposing hitters seemed to have successfully erased what was always a slim margin for error when Berríos threw his four-seamer. Using his sinker more seemed like a bright idea, which makes this graph encouraging to see:
Berríos did indeed start using his sinker more toward the end of the year, and it helped lower his ERA to a more reasonable 4.32 over his last nine outings. Maybe that didn't altogether fix what ailed him, but it's a solid foundation for him to keep building on this season.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 30 GS, 161.2 IP, 171 H (24 HR), 177 K, 61 BB, 4.90 ERA
Lucas Giolito might have been the worst pitcher in baseball as he was racking up a 6.13 ERA in 2018. Not so much over the next three years, as he got Cy Young votes annually and ultimately pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
It was like the 2018 Giolito appeared all over again in 2022, and not just results-wise. Whereas the Giolito of 2019-21 sat around 94 mph with his fastball, the Giolitos of '18 and '22 sat around 92.5 mph. And it got worse as last year went along.
Might this have been the effect of an early-season abdominal strain and subsequent case of COVID-19? It seems plausible from the outside looking in, though Giolito and the White Sox saw his issues as being more mechanical in nature.
To this end, Giolito's release point was the lowest its ever been last season, which theoretically explains why his fastball, changeup and slider—the latter two of which had their composite run value go from minus-20.1 in 2021 to plus-12.2 in 2022—flattened out with regard to their vertical action:
In speaking to James Fegan of The Athletic in December, Giolito hinted at feeling back on track after starting his offseason doing some biomechanical homework. If so, last year may well prove to be more aberration than a return to a form that Giolito surely doesn't want to inhabit again.
RHP Craig Kimbrel, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 34
2022 Stats: 63 G, 47 GF, 60.0 IP, 51 H (4 HR), 72 K, 28 BB, 3.75 ERA
Craig Kimbrel had some real struggles in 2019 and 2020, to be sure, but he seemed to put those behind him as he got off to a torrid start for the Chicago Cubs in 2021. Through 39 appearances, he had allowed only two earned runs next to 64 strikeouts and 13 walks.
Like with Cruz and Gallo, however, Kimbrel just hasn't been right since he was traded midway through '21. He pitched to a 4.12 ERA over his last 87 appearances, and 2022 ended with him losing his job as the Los Angeles Dodgers' closer and then being left off their playoff roster.
Through it all, there was no ignoring that Kimbrel's fastball had never been slower:
The Phillies nonetheless believe they can fix the eight-time All-Star, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski alluding to "adjustments" that pitching coaches Caleb Cotham and Brian Kaplan want to make. Those likely concern Kimbrel's mechanics, as he notably dropped his release point as 2022 went along.
Just as intriguing, though, is a hint from Kimbrel himself that he learned new pitches last year. He's only ever been a fastball-curveball guy, so mixing in a slider or changeup or even a sinker or cutter would at least allow him to show hitters a different look in 2023. Either way, the Phillies will benefit if either the old Kimbrel or a new-and-improved Kimbrel shows up.
LHP Robbie Ray, Seattle Mariners
Age: 31
2022 Stats: 32 GS, 189.0 IP, 163 H (32 HR), 212 K, 62 BB, 3.71 ERA
Robbie Ray indeed went into the 2021 season looking for a bounce-back campaign after things went awry for him in 2020. It's safe to say that panned out, as he won the AL Cy Young Award on the strength of league-best marks for innings, strikeouts and ERA.
The Mariners were presumably hoping for more of that after they signed Ray for $115 million over five years, yet he didn't deliver in either the regular season or, as Yordan Álvarez can vouch, in the playoffs.
One silver lining is that Ray at least finished the regular season stronger than he started it. He posted a 3.06 ERA in 21 starts after June 6, which so happened to be the day that he reintroduced a sinker into his pitch mix.
And yet, how much the sinker really helped is a fair question to ask. From looking at run values, it was actually the least effective pitch in his arsenal down the stretch:
This doesn't mean the sinker served no purpose whatsoever for Ray, as simply being able to show it to hitters might have benefited the four-seamer/slider combination that won him the Cy Young in 2021. But the lesson here seems to be that it would be better if he showed the sinker less often in 2023, in which case better things may await him.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.