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VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt basketball vs. Arkansas: Score prediction, scouting report

Aria Gerson
Nashville Tennessean

Vanderbilt basketball saw its best win last season come against Arkansas. Now, the Commodores have a chance once again to get a resume boost against the Razorbacks, this time in Nashville.

Arkansas (12-4, 1-3 SEC) has lost three of its past four games. The Razorbcks fell to LSU, Alabama and Auburn with just a home win over Missouri in conference play.

Vanderbilt (8-8, 1-2) has continued its recent streak of close games, beating South Carolina at home in overtime with close road losses to Missouri and Tennessee going into the matchup Saturday (1 p.m. CT, ESPNU).

Arkansas is 15th in KenPom and 20th in the NET. The Commodores are 96th in KenPom and 107th in the NET.

Here's what to know about the matchup:

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Arkansas offense vs. Vanderbilt defense

The Razorbacks excel at the rim. They have one of the top two-point shooting percentages in the country, rarely get shots blocked and get to the free throw line often. But their Achilles' heel is a lack of 3-point shooting. Arkansas does not attempt many threes and makes just 28% of the ones it does attempt. That also translates into a relatively poor free-throw percentage at 70%.

Vanderbilt's defense excels at defending the three, allowing opponents to make just 31% of attempts. It is not as good defending within the arc, so forcing the Razorbacks into 3-point attempts will be key. Shot blocking will be a matchup of strengths as the Commodores are 21st in the country at blocking shots and Arkansas is 24th in the country at avoiding blocks.

Vanderbilt offense vs. Arkansas defense

Like Tennessee, Arkansas has one of the top defenses in the country, though the two teams go about it in slightly different ways. Where the Vols excel at preventing 3-point shooting and forcing turnovers, the Razorbacks combine a propensity for turnovers with strong defensive rebounding.

That will be a stylistic clash with Vanderbilt's offense, which isn't particularly strong at shooting but does well on the offensive glass and did well to avoid turnovers against Tennessee. The Commodores will need to have a good shooting day to have a chance.

Intangibles

Vanderbilt tends to play every opponent close, but both teams struggle to make their free throws, which has the potential to muck things up.

The Commodores should have the healthier team as no scholarship player has missed an SEC game. Arkansas has been playing without Nick Smith, the No. 1 recruit in the country, because of a knee injury. He is expected to miss the rest of January.

Score prediction

Vanderbilt 65, Arkansas 63: If Vanderbilt can play the way it did against Tennessee and Missouri, it has the chance to catch a reeling Arkansas team off guard.

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