STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — A warm start to the new year in New York may serve as a precursor to above-average temperatures through the end of winter.
The National Weather Service’s seasonal outlook for January to March gives New York City between a 40% and 50% chance to see warmer-than-normal conditions, while northern and western parts of the state have a slightly smaller likelihood.
The trend is consistent throughout the entirety of the East Coast. Average temperatures for the span are expected to be pushed higher by an especially warm start to January, which is shaping up to be atypically balmy.
The predictions do not rule out cold snaps and even extended periods with temperatures just below typical levels, only overall temperatures over the three-month period.
Last month, for example, the Newark Liberty International Airport climate station experienced an average temperature for the month just 0.3 degrees warmer than a normal December, despite Christmas weekend temperatures plummeting to the single digits and teens.
In that case, an exceptionally warm end to the month — with Dec. 30 reaching a high of 62 degrees — helped balance out the scales.
Even slightly higher temperatures, though, can have impacts to winter conditions.
So far, most New York City-area climate stations have registered just trace levels of snowfall accumulations, and chances for the first winter storms of the year are unlikely until at least later this month, a forecaster told the Advance/SILive.com.
However, if temperatures do fall below freezing, a warmer winter could mean heavier snowfall conditions.
Warmer temperatures heat up air particles in the Earth’s atmosphere, enabling them to hold more moisture than cooler particles. Storms, which are highly efficient at ringing all the water vapor from the atmosphere, release that moisture in the form of heavy precipitation.
Akin to warmer temperatures acting as fuel for summer storms to drop significant rainfall, above-average winter temperatures can allow more moisture to be stored in the atmosphere and cause subsequent snowfall to be intense.
Temperatures, then, can be just slightly warmer than normal — but still below freezing — and create massive storms that pummel areas with intense winter conditions.
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