What to watch for when Seahawks host the Rams in Week 18 — plus Bob Condotta’s prediction

It has to be the Rams whom the Seahawks must defeat to reach the playoffs, doesn’t it?

The Seahawks had to defeat the Rams in the 2010 regular-season finale to take the NFC West at 7-9 and kick off the Pete Carroll era in fitting fashion, setting up all that happened later.

And the Seahawks had to defeat the Rams in the 2013 and 2014 regular-season finales to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs, which proved critical in reaching the Super Bowl both years.

And the Seahawks had to beat the Rams in 2020 when they last clinched a division title.

The Seahawks again end the season with the Rams in a pivotal game — a must-win game to reach the playoffs.

Actually, it’s win and wait. The Seahawks must defeat the Rams and need Detroit to defeat Green Bay on Sunday night to get the NFC’s seventh seed.

But first things first.

Let’s look at Sunday’s matchup with our weekly keys to the game and prediction.

Matchup to watch

WR DK Metcalf vs. Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey

This is always must-see TV, even if Metcalf and Ramsey don’t face each other every play. In their meeting Dec. 4, when Metcalf had his second 100-yard game of the season with eight receptions for 127 yards (one of his catches came when matched up with Ramsey). The eight-yard TD gave the Seahawks the winning points with 36 seconds left. According to Pro Football Focus, Metcalf caught passes matched up against five other Rams defenders that day. But with the Rams in nothing-to-lose mode, it’s tempting to wonder if they find a way to get Ramsey in coverage more on Metcalf. As for Metcalf, he’s coming off a game in which he had just one catch for 3 yards against the Jets, each the second-lowest totals of his career. That left Carroll hinting that he expects a big rebound this week.

Player to watch

Quarterback Geno Smith

This is as big of a game as Smith has played, with a chance to guide the Seahawks to a winning season and a playoff berth, which few predicted when they traded Russell Wilson in March. Smith can set team records for completions, yards and completion percentage Sunday. And 17-game season or not, those would still be impressive stats to throw around when it’s time to talk contract in the offseason. But most important for his future may be showing he can win a game such as this and guide a team to a winning record. A loss would be especially disappointing after the Seahawks’ 6-3 start, and it would be the sixth in the last eight games. That could affect team QB decisions in the offseason.

Coaching decision to watch

Early offensive aggressiveness

Though the Seahawks ended up rushing a season-high 38 times against the Jets last week, the game didn’t start that way. They had an 8-to-8 pass-to-run ratio in the first quarter, as Smith went 6 of 8 for 105 yards in leading the Seahawks to a 10-3 lead that became 17-3 45 seconds into the second quarter, at which point the pass-run ratio was 9 to 9. Five of their six biggest gains came in the first quarter. A similar strategy of trying to strike quickly makes sense this week. The Seahawks don’t want to let an underdog hang around with so much on the line.

The X-factor

Playoff pressure

All the pressure is on the Seahawks. How they handle it will be interesting to watch. The Seahawks have seemed to be at their best this season in underdog roles, such as the opener against Denver and in defying expectations to get to 6-3. The Seahawks are 2-3 as a point-spread favorite this season and 1-3 at home. The Seahawks are six-point favorites Sunday. In the good-omen department, the only time they have been a bigger favorite was at the Rams at 6.5. They didn’t cover, but they won, and that’s all the Seahawks care about this week.

Players who could surprise

LBs Cody Barton and Tanner Muse

Jordyn Brooks, who became a full-time starter before the 2021 season, has put up huge tackle numbers the past two years, but there is a debate about just how valuable he is to the team. He is ranked 70^th out of 84 linebackers this week by Pro Football Focus. An answer to that question could come Sunday, as he will miss Sunday’s game after suffering an ACL injury against the Jets. Cody Barton will take his spot at MLB, as he did for the final 35 minutes last week, with Tanner Muse expected to get his first NFL start at the weakside spot where Barton was playing. The pair played well against the Jets, but the Seahawks had a 17-6 lead when Brooks departed, and the Jets have struggled on offense of late. Expect the Rams to test Barton and Muse with their usual assortment of misdirection plays, and possibly other gadgets to keep the middle of the defense off balance.

Key stat

8-0

That’s the Seahawks’ record this season when leading after three quarters. Conversely, the Seahawks are 0-7 when trailing after three quarters and 0-1 when tied after three quarters (they are 0-6 when trailing at halftime). The days of winning the game in the fourth quarter — long one of Carroll’s favorite sayings — have evaporated, at least for this season. The Seahawks know how to put a game away in the fourth quarter. And they have had one game in which they led after three, fell behind and came back — at the Rams — and another in which they lost a fourth-quarter lead to fall into a tie and won (against the Giants). But in general, the Seahawks have been either a good front-running team or one that can’t come all the way back in the fourth quarter when needed. All the more reason to try to build a big, early lead Sunday.

Prediction

Seahawks 21, Rams 13

Rams linebacker Bobby Wagner, who makes his return to Seattle after being traded in March, probably will make sure this won’t be an easy game for the Seahawks. But their defense finally seems to be finding consistency, and a performance similar to those of the past three weeks should be enough to get the win — and then wait and see if it proves enough to reach the playoffs.