2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections with 1 Month to Go

In the aftermath of what was unofficially a rivalry weekend in men's college basketball, there were some considerable shakeups to the projected field for the 2023 NCAA tournament.

Saint Mary's bypassed Gonzaga after a come-from-behind overtime victory. Virginia Tech knocked Virginia down a seed line and got itself into the bubble mix. Duke helped bump North Carolina down toward the bubble. Indiana continued its ascent with a huge win over No. 1 Purdue.

With Selection Sunday now just four-and-a-half weeks away, how are things looking?

Despite the loss to Indiana, Purdue remains No. 1 overall. The Boilermakers are joined on the top line by Alabama, Houston and Arizona, though there are five Big 12 teams in the Nos. 2-3 seed range, perpetually one big week away from crashing the party.

For each of the four regions, we will discuss one team in better shape than it was one week ago and another that—though still in position to dance—has fallen on hard times.

Before that, we will start with the bubble. After the region-by-region breakdowns, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order they are. At the end is a list of seeds by conference as a handy reference guide.

One quick "glossary" note: When we take deeper looks at specific teams' resumes, you'll see NET, RES and QUAL. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee and the metric from which quadrant records are derived. RES is the average of the team's resume metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record). QUAL is the average of the quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, KenPom.com and Sagarin).

NET rankings are updated daily here. The others are masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik. Records are current through the start of play on Tuesday. All other data is current through the start of play Monday, unless otherwise noted.

Last Team In: Boise State Broncos
18-6, NET: 27, RES: 35.5, QUAL: 36.3

Boise State's metrics look great, but get down in the weeds and you'll find there's not much behind those numbers. The Broncos' only win over a projected tournament team was a home game against Nevada, and they have three losses to teams nowhere close to the at-large conversation (Santa Clara, Charlotte and South Dakota State). Getting blown out at San Diego State on Friday was a big missed opportunity. They probably need to go 6-1 the rest of the way to remain in the at-large field.

Second-to-Last In: Wisconsin Badgers
13-9, NET: 77, RES: 46.0, QUAL: 65.3

Winning at Ohio State Thursday night was a nice step in the right direction. But subsequently losing at home to Northwestern on Sunday evening brought the Badgers right back to the cut line. Wisconsin has now lost seven of its past nine games, and the two wins (Penn State and Ohio State) came against teams not in the projected field. In fact, the Badgers' last win over a projected tournament team was nearly two months ago in overtime at Iowa—when the Hawkeyes had neither Kris Murray nor Ahron Ulis available. They'll have to go 2-0 on the road against Penn State and Nebraska this week, or else it's bye bye, Badgers.

Third-to-Last In: Clemson Tigers
18-6, NET: 64, RES: 50.5, QUAL: 64.0

In 1972-73, NC State went 27-0 but was ineligible for the NCAA tournament because violations related to the recruitment of David Thompson. That was the last time a team earned at least a share of the ACC regular-season title and missed the dance. But Clemson is threatening to do so after its most recent losses to Boston College and Miami. The Tigers are still in first place at 10-3, but with a Quadrant 3 loss, a pair of Quadrant 4 losses, mediocre metrics and, incredibly, nary a game played against the top half of Quadrant 1. Saturday's game at North Carolina looms quite large (for both teams).

Fourth-to-Last In: Oklahoma State Cowboys
14-9, NET: 35, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 30.0

Darn near left for dead in mid-January, Oklahoma State has won five of its past six games, sweeping Oklahoma and knocking off both Iowa State and TCU in Stillwater. The Pokes now have four Quadrant 1 wins, and even their bad losses—vs. Southern Illinois; UCF and Virginia Tech on neutral courts—aren't all that bad. Of course, a bunch of difficult games remain in Big 12 play, but even a 3-5 finish might get them into the tournament.

Fifth-to-Last In: Arkansas Razorbacks
16-7, NET: 29, RES: 31.0, QUAL: 26.0

Four days after an 11-point home win over Texas A&M in a big bubble battle, Arkansas narrowly avoided disaster in a two-point win at South Carolina. The Razorbacks still don't have any great wins, and they do have troubling losses to LSU and Vanderbilt. But, as was the case one week ago, we simply can't leave them out of the projected field with those metrics. They still have two games left against Kentucky, as well as road games against Alabama, Tennessee and Texas A&M. We'll find out soon enough if this team is for real.

First Team Out: Memphis Tigers
17-6, NET: 47, RES: 36.0, QUAL: 43.3

Saturday's home loss to Tulane was a dagger for the Tigers, who have now been swept by the Green Wave. Memphis has just one win over a projected at-large team (Auburn) and now five losses to teams not projected to dance. There's no particular ratio of that ilk for determining whether a team belongs in the field, but let's just say that's not a good ratio. The Tigers likely need to win all of their remaining non-Houston games, and they might even need to knock off the Cougars once to earn a bid.

Second Team Out: Utah State Aggies
19-5, NET: 32, RES: 33.5, QUAL: 52.3

As with "Last Team In" Boise State, Utah State's metrics look strong, but the resume itself is rather unimpressive. The Aggies are 0-3 vs. Quadrant 1 (losing at Boise State, Nevada and San Diego State) and suffered a pair of Quadrant 4 losses (Weber State and SMU). But going 15-0 against Quadrants 2 and 3 isn't nothing. A home win over San Diego State on Wednesday would be big.

Third Team Out: Mississippi State Bulldogs
15-8, NET: 46, RES: 56.0, QUAL: 43.7

It's been quite a tale of three seasons for Mississippi State, which started out 11-0, lost eight out of nine games and has now won three straight. The overtime win over TCU in the SEC/B12 Challenge put the Bulldogs back on the radar, and building on that win with consecutive victories by double digits over South Carolina and Missouri gets them even closer to the field. After a should-win home game against LSU on Wednesday, Mississippi State will have massive back-to-back bubble games against Arkansas (road) and Kentucky (home). Stay tuned.

Fourth Team Out: Seton Hall Pirates
15-9, NET: 53, RES: 54.0, QUAL: 49.7

For the first time all season, welcome to the conversation, Seton Hall. The Pirates have won seven of their past eight games. While most of the individual results were kind of whatever—sweeping DePaul and Butler, winning at Georgetown and St. John's—seven wins in the span of eight league games is commendable, and they did score a huge home win over Connecticut a few weeks ago. A win in either game this week (vs. Creighton, at Villanova) would make things interesting. Winning both would almost surely be enough to vault the Pirates into the projected field.

Fifth Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies
14-9, NET: 50, RES: 56.0, QUAL: 46.3

Yes, it makes me sick to my stomach to suggest that a 4-8 team in a bad ACC deserves to be considered for a bid. But three of those four wins were against Duke, North Carolina and Virginia, plus neutral-site victories over Oklahoma State and Penn State in nonconference play. And aside from the overtime loss at Boston College, there haven't been any particularly bad missteps. The Hokies would not be in today, but a 7-1 finish against a pretty favorable schedule might do the trick.

Birmingham, Alabama
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 UNC-Asheville
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Creighton

Albany, New York
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Yale
No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 12 Charleston

Columbus, Ohio
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Drake
No. 6 Iowa vs. No. 11 Arkansas

Sacramento, California
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 New Mexico

Movin' On Up: Iowa Hawkeyes (Up Four Seed Lines)
15-8, NET: 33, RES: 31.5, QUAL: 28.3

Iowa still has, by far, the worst loss of any projected at-large team, as that home loss to Eastern Illinois back in late December just keeps getting uglier with time.

But the Hawkeyes have done enough good over the past five weeks to turn that horrific blip on the radar into, well, a blip.

Following consecutive home wins over Rutgers, Northwestern and Illinois, Iowa is now 7-5 vs. Quadrant 1 and 10-6 against the top two Quadrants. The Hawkeyes have eight wins over projected tournament teams—including a very nice season sweep of Rutgers—plus a road win over Seton Hall, which is starting to make a run at the projected field.

Had Iowa not lost that game to Eastern Illinois—sans Kris Murray and Connor McCaffery, we should note—it might be flirting with a No. 3 seed right now.

Fadin' Fast: New Mexico Lobos (Down Two Seed Lines)
19-4, NET: 37, RES: 31.5, QUAL: 61.0

Over the past two weeks, the Lobos have nobly taken it upon themselves to help out the Mountain West's bubble situation. They lost in double overtime at Nevada on Jan. 23 and lost by 11 at Utah State this past Wednesday. Thanks to those results, the Wolf Pack is in the projected field, while the Aggies are just on the outside looking in.

In the process, however, New Mexico's resume has begun to take on some water.

The Lobos still have road wins over both Saint Mary's and San Diego State, which are massive Quadrant 1 results. They also have a strong home win over Boise State, plus that added-to-the-schedule-at-the-last-minute home win over Oral Roberts in early January. But with just five wins against the top two Quadrants and a pair of Quadrant 3 losses, they don't have a ton of wiggle room to mess around.

They have five games left against the bottom half of the league, home games against Nevada and San Diego State and a road game against Boise State. Going 6-2 during that closing stretch should get the job done. But if they lose all three remaining games against the MWC's other projected tournament teams, the Lobos might be in "work to do" territory heading into the conference tournament.

Birmingham, Alabama
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 SIU-Edwardsville/Northwestern State
No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Pittsburgh

Albany, New York
No. 4 Marquette vs. No. 13 Sam Houston State
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 VCU

Orlando, Florida
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Iona
No. 6 Duke vs. No. 11 Kentucky

Des Moines, Iowa
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Montana State
No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 USC

Movin' On Up: Pittsburgh Panthers (Up Two Seed Lines)
16-7, NET: 55, RES: 40.0, QUAL: 59.7

Three games ago, the Panthers were smack dab on the bubble facing a major do-or-die stretch: vs. Wake Forest, vs. Miami, at North Carolina.

At the time, I said they would likely be in good shape if they won two out of three.

But they went out and won all three.

Each win came in dramatic fashion, including a controversial no-call on a possible foul at the end of the 65-64 win in Chapel Hill. Because they won those three games by a combined margin of just six points, their NET and predictive metrics haven't improved by much.

However, improving from 5-6 to 8-6 against the top two Quadrants has done wonders for their resume as a whole.

At this point, they just need to avoid disaster. A loss in the next eight days against Louisville, Florida State or Boston College would qualify as disaster. So would a home loss to Georgia Tech or a loss at Notre Dame later on down the road. But finishing at 15-5 and in first place in the ACC is very much in play.

Fadin' Fast: Florida Atlantic Owls (Down Two Seed Lines)
22-2, NET: 18, RES: 19.0, QUAL: 42.7

After losing at UAB on Thursday night, the Owls are down, but not out.

If they had to suffer a loss in Conference USA play, either the UAB loss or the road game against North Texas (which they already won) were going to be the most forgivable missteps. And at least they did bounce back with a 15-point road win over Charlotte—arguably the fourth-best team in the conference.

As such, it hasn't been a massive fall from grace for FAU. Hard to argue with a week with a Quadrant 1 loss and a Quadrant 2 victory. And those NET and RES metrics remain pristine.

But because they only had one somewhat noteworthy win in nonconference play (at Florida) and are merely 5-2 overall against the top two Quadrants, the Owls slip a bit into the "toss-up" range of a No. 8/9 first-round game.

If they win all their remaining regular-season games before losing in the C-USA tournament, though, I still like FAU's chances of getting an at-large bid.

Columbus, Ohio
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Wagner/Grambling State
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 West Virginia

Orlando, Florida
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Kent State
No. 5 Rutgers vs. No. 12 Liberty

Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 14 Furman
No. 6 Miami vs. No. 11 Oklahoma State/Boise State

Denver, Colorado
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Youngstown State
No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 10 North Carolina

Movin' On Up: West Virginia Mountaineers (Up Two Seed Lines)
14-9, NET: 20, RES: 37.5, QUAL: 19.7

It's beginning to feel like West Virginia will never get a marquee victory. The Mountaineers gave TCU a good fight in Fort Worth this past week but fell four points shy of pulling off the upset, dropping to 0-8 against the top half of Quadrant 1.

But at least they are taking care of business in the other games, and they really took care of business in a 32-point shellacking of Oklahoma on Saturday evening.

WVU is now 14-1 outside of those top half of Q1 games, including five wins against the bottom half of Q1. They have suffered nothing close to a bad loss, and the metrics are solid across the board.

To put it lightly, though, the fight isn't finished yet.

Unless the 'Eers plan on winning one of the road games against Texas, Baylor, Kansas or Iowa State—each very much a top half of Q1 game—they must protect home court in their remaining games against Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas State, lest they risk reaching the point where they simply have too many losses to dance.

Fadin' Fast: North Carolina Tar Heels (Down Two Seed Lines)
15-8, NET: 44, RES: 41.5, QUAL: 34.7

After losses to Pitt and Duke in the past week, North Carolina is back on the bubble.

Giving the Tar Heels a No. 10 seed might even be a little too generous, because, seriously, who have they beaten?

That once quality win over Ohio State (in Madison Square Garden) looks pretty meaningless now that the Buckeyes have lost nine of their past 10 games.

A home win over NC State is as good as it gets for the Heels, who also lost at Virginia Tech and have been swept by Pittsburgh.

The metrics are still solid, and they do have plenty of opportunities down the stretch—home games against Clemson, Miami, Virginia and Duke with a road game against NC State sandwiched in the middle. But if they happen to go 1-2 (or 0-3) in these next seven days against Wake Forest, Clemson and Miami, they would likely be out of the projected field in next week's bracket.

Denver, Colorado
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Norfolk State
No. 8 Nevada vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Sacramento, California
No. 4 Saint Mary's vs. No. 13 Southern Miss
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts

Des Moines, Iowa
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 Wisconsin/Clemson

Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Providence vs. No. 10 Northwestern

Movin' On Up: Nevada Wolf Pack (Back in the Field)
18-6, NET: 34, RES: 26.0, QUAL: 54.7

Say this much for the Wolf Pack: They don't lose at home.

After beating both San Diego State and Air Force this week, they're now 12-0 in Reno, including winning all four games against the other at-large candidates in the Mountain West: San Diego State, New Mexico, Boise State and Utah State.

And though they do have six losses away from home, there aren't any terrible ones in the bunch. All six currently reside in the NET top 100 for four Quadrant 1 and two Quadrant 2 results.

Overall, they're 2-4 against Q1 and 8-6 against the top two Quadrants.

And with so many middling major-conference teams stockpiling "good losses" to the point that they're now .500 or worse against the top two Quadrants, Nevada is starting to stand out from the crowd.

In fact, the Wolf Pack entered play on Sunday as one of just 10 teams in the country with at least eight wins against Q1/Q2 and nary a loss against Q3/Q4. And every other member of that club is projected for a No. 4 seed or better. (All but one of those 10 teams also has multiple wins against the top half of Quadrant 1, and Nevada has none, hence the No. 8 seed.)

A Tuesday night win at New Mexico would be massive, but a 5-2 record down the stretch should be enough get the Wolf Pack into the dance.

Fadin' Fast: Michigan State Spartans (Down One Seed Line)
14-9, NET: 45, RES: 35.0, QUAL: 42.0

The gauntlet of the past three-and-a-half weeks has taken a toll on Michigan State's resume.

Dating back to Jan. 13, the Spartans have played two games against Purdue, two games against Rutgers, road games against Illinois and Indiana and a home game against Iowa. Just a brutal stretch, and going 2-5 against that slate has brought them down to the bubble.

Similar to West Virginia, Michigan State has blown every opportunity against the top half of Quadrant 1, sitting at 0-7 in those games after losses to Purdue and Rutgers in the past 10 days. But the Spartans do at least have a 3-0 record against the bottom half of Quadrant 1, plus a trio of solid Quadrant 2 wins (vs. Iowa; at Wisconsin; Oregon on a "neutral" floor in Portland).

Unlike West Virginia, however, Michigan State suffered a bad (and not even competitive) 18-point loss to Notre Dame, as well as a Quadrant 2 home loss to Northwestern.

Sparty is still somewhat comfortably in the projected field. But with only three games remaining against projected tournament teams (vs. Maryland, vs. Indiana, at Iowa), they must go at least 5-3 down the stretch to remain in good shape for a bid heading into the Big Ten tournament.

No. 4: Arizona Wildcats
21-3, NET: 9, RES: 6.5, QUAL: 8.3

Tennessee has temporarily dropped out of the running for a No. 1 seed following its 13-point loss to Florida, and UCLA (at just 3-4 vs. Quadrant 1) just about needs to win out to prove it deserves a spot on the top line. But the race between Arizona, Kansas and Texas is almost too close to call.

When all is said and done, there will probably be at least one Big 12 team as a No. 1 seed. But, for now, slight edge to Arizona, which has gone 5-0 against the top half of Quadrant 1. The Wildcats do have a bad home loss to Washington State weighing them down a bit, but this three-loss resume is quite strong overall.

No. 3: Houston Cougars
21-2, NET: 1, RES: 4.5, QUAL: 1.0

Road wins this week over Wichita State and Temple didn't do much of anything to improve Houston's resume, but at least they did get revenge on the Owls for that bad loss on Jan. 22. The Cougars are now 5-1 vs. Quadrant 1 and 12-1 against the top two Quadrants.

If they don't lose again (including AAC tournament), there's still a chance the Cougars end up at No. 1 overall. Although, only having a couple of wins over projected tournament teams (Virginia and Saint Mary's) might keep that from happening.

No. 2: Alabama Crimson Tide
20-3, NET: 3, RES: 1.5, QUAL: 3.7

Alabama bounced back nicely from the 93-69 loss at Oklahoma two Saturdays ago by relentlessly destroying Vanderbilt 101-44. The Crimson Tide also won by double digits at LSU, though that was a much closer affair than 'Bama's previous 106-66 dismantling of the Tigers.

The Crimson Tide have a huge 10-day stretch coming up if they want to cement themselves on the top line. They have a home game against surging Florida before road games against both Auburn and Tennessee. Going 2-1 would keep Alabama on the projected No. 1 line, but going 3-0 would just about seal the deal—assuming they don't turn around and lose to Georgia or South Carolina.

No. 1: Purdue Boilermakers
22-2, NET: 4, RES: 1.5, QUAL: 4.7

Yes, Purdue lost at Indiana over the weekend. But, as mentioned last week, the Boilermakers were so far ahead in the race for the No. 1 overall seed that they reasonably could have lost to both Penn State and Indiana in the past seven days and still held onto the top spot. And Purdue did blow out Penn State and nearly came back from a 15-point deficit to win at Indiana.

Purdue is now 4-1 against the top half of Quadrant 1, 9-2 vs. Quadrant 1 as a whole and 12-2 overall against the top two Quadrants. Alabama—at 2-2, 6-3 and 11-3, respectively—still has quite a bit of work to do to catch the Boilermakers.

In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each squad's overall seed, broken down by conference. "First Five Out" are listed in italics. Projected automatic bids for each conference are based on QUAL metrics as opposed to conference record.

American (1): 3. Houston; 69. Memphis

ACC (7): 13. Virginia; 21. Miami; 24. Duke; 29. NC State; 34. Pittsburgh; 38. North Carolina; 44. Clemson; 73. Virginia Tech

Big 12 (8): 5. Kansas; 6. Texas; 9. Iowa State; 10. Kansas State; 11. Baylor; 17. TCU; 33. West Virginia; 43. Oklahoma State

Big East (5): 12. Xavier; 14. Marquette; 18. Connecticut; 27. Providence; 36. Creighton; 72. Seton Hall

Big Ten (9): 1. Purdue; 19. Rutgers; 20. Indiana; 22. Iowa; 25. Indiana; 32. Maryland; 35. Michigan State; 40. Northwestern; 45. Wisconsin

Mountain West (4): 23. San Diego State; 30. Nevada; 39. New Mexico; 46. Boise State; 70. Utah State

Pac-12 (3): 4. Arizona; 7. UCLA; 37. USC

SEC (6): 2. Alabama; 8. Tennessee; 26. Auburn; 28. Missouri; 41. Kentucky; 42. Arkansas; 71. Mississippi State

West Coast (2): 15. Saint Mary's; 16. Gonzaga

Other (23): 31. Florida Atlantic; 47. Oral Roberts; 48. Liberty; 49. VCU; 50. Charleston; 51. Kent State; 52. Sam Houston State; 53. Yale; 54. Southern Miss; 55. Drake; 56. Iona; 57. Furman; 58. UC Irvine; 59. Montana State; 60. Youngstown State; 61. Colgate; 62. Vermont; 63. UNC-Asheville; 64. Norfolk State; 65. Northwestern State; 66. SIU-Edwardsville; 67. Grambling State; 68. Wagner

Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference and KenPom unless otherwise noted.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.