Chicago mayoral race: Lori Lightfoot losing advantage as reelection nears

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot‘s chances at reelection are looking slimmer than ever: A new poll shows her opponents holding a strong lead seven days before the Chicago mayoral race.

A poll from Victory Research shows that Paul Vallas, the former CEO of Chicago Public Schools, is leading the top five candidates with 22%. Lightfoot is in second with 17.1%, followed by Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-IL) made it in the top five, and the remaining candidates did not receive double digits.

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The Chicago mayoral race is catching national attention as criticism continues to roll in against Lightfoot for her responses to immigration, education, and crime. She is also battling scrutiny for several campaign strategies, including dancing in the streets while rallying residents to vote and sending volunteer opportunities to schools and universities — something that resulted in an ethics complaint from parents and an investigation from the public school system’s inspector general.

Despite the numerous controversies, Lightfoot’s standings have improved slightly from various other polls released in early February.

On Feb. 8, a poll from the Chicago Sun-Times, Telemundo Chicago, NBC5 Chicago, and WBEZ Public Radio put Lightfoot in third place after Garcia and Vallas, and Garcia was in the lead. On Feb. 14, Vallas took the lead in a poll conducted by Northwestern University and Latino and black nonprofit groups, with Lightfoot remaining in third place.

“I think Paul has solidified himself as the front-runner in the race with his message of law and order,” Rod McCulloch, a pollster at Victory Research, told ABC Chicago. “It appears, unless something changes, that Paul Vallas will be in the runoff with someone. I don’t know who that is. Lots of candidates are close enough to be there.”

Lightfoot is not the only one receiving criticism relating to their campaign. Vallas came under fire for his endorsement from the Fraternal Order of Police. The organization invited its members to a scheduled visit by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who is speculated to be a potential GOP 2024 presidential candidate.

Garcia slammed Vallas and the visit, saying it was an attempt to impose political influence over Chicago.

“Obviously it’s meant to have some sort of a political impact in Chicago, but it certainly raises the questions again about whether Vallas is a trustworthy candidate, whether as he claims he’s a lifelong Democrat,” the Illinois representative said while campaigning on the North Side on Friday.

Vallas denounced Garcia’s claims in a statement, saying he disapproved of the order inviting a “right-wing extremist” like DeSantis to the city to speak to officers who “have no interest in getting swept up in culture wars and national Republican Party politics.”

To bump up her support, Lightfoot released a pair of ads last week attacking Garcia and Johnson, both of whom have slipped in numbers over the last month. Lightfoot’s ad against Johnson attacked him for his comments about defunding the police. In response, Johnson released an ad attacking Lightfoot for Chicago’s rising crime rates, per ABC Chicago.

Garcia said Lightfoot’s ad campaigns are to distract from her current record ahead of the election.

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“She’s spent over close to a million dollars attacking me for the past month and a half,” Garcia said. “Think about that. Why would anyone spend that much money? Because she’s afraid … she won’t make the runoff vote.”

The election will take place on Feb. 28. If neither candidate receives 50% of the vote, which is likely, the Chicago race will go to a runoff on April 4.