Republican supermajorities in Florida’s legislature may hand Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) a political leg up before a likely 2024 presidential campaign.
Should DeSantis announce his candidacy, a successful Florida legislative marathon that strengthens his conservative credentials could help him win the GOP nomination. But having his agenda rubber-stamped by state lawmakers is not without political risk, as it could undermine him with independent voters in a general election.
DeSantis and Florida Republicans hope the 2023 state legislative session, which started Tuesday, will be “a launching pad” for the governor’s presidential aspirations, according to University of Central Florida politics professor Aubrey Jewett.
“In the short run, politically, I don’t see any negatives to this strategy,” Jewett told the Washington Examiner. “He has really leaned into taking unyielding conservative positions, and it has paid dividends for him. He raised a record amount of money, won reelection handily, seen his poll numbers across the country shoot up, and he is the main Republican opponent to [former President] Donald Trump for the Republican primary.”
“But if you win that primary and you’ve gotten this record of being very conservative, some critics would say ‘extreme’ even in some cases, will that work in a general election?” he asked. “The answer is I don’t know for sure.”
The White House and Democrats have already criticized DeSantis and Florida Republicans for their conservative policies, particularly their desire to introduce a six-week abortion ban, with exemptions to protect the mother’s life or if the pregnancy resulted from rape or incest.
“Florida’s proposed bill would ban abortion before many women know if they are pregnant, virtually eliminating a woman’s right to make healthcare decisions about her own body,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “Politicians like Gov. DeSantis espouse ‘freedom for all,’ while directly attacking the freedom to make one’s own healthcare decisions.”
Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison added: “Time and time again, Ron DeSantis has made it clear he will do anything in his race for the MAGA base, even if it means pushing for one of the strictest abortion bans in the country.”
Democrats seized on Florida’s abortion measure after outperforming expectations in last year’s midterm elections due, in part, to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. But DeSantis and his veto-proof Florida Republicans also outperformed expectations in the state, DeSantis defeating former Democratic Florida Gov. Charlie Crist by 15 percentage points stateside and by 11 points in Miami-Dade County.
“November’s election results represent a vindication of our joint efforts over these past four years,” DeSantis said during his State of the State address Tuesday. “It’s also vested in us the responsibility to lead and provide us the opportunity to shoot for the stars. Boldness be our friend in this endeavor. We have a lot we need to accomplish.”
DeSantis and Florida Republicans have a long list of accomplishments they would like to notch by May 5, the end of the session and after which DeSantis is anticipated to launch his campaign. Those achievements include allowing Florida residents to carry a concealed weapon without a permit and blocking state college programs on diversity, equity, and inclusion, in addition to critical race theory. They, too, include reforms regarding detaining illegal immigrants and tougher penalties for human smugglers, as well as making it easier to sue reporters and news outlets.
Although DeSantis contends he does not “control every single bill that has been filed,” University of South Florida emeritus government professor Darryl Paulson asserted DeSantis “has been in complete control of the legislature this past year.”
“The governor says lay down and play dead, and all of the Republicans are playing dead,” he said. “I expect the governor will get virtually everything he asks for because Republicans fear the consequences if they challenge the governor’s priorities. No one wants to be the person who interfered with DeSantis’s opportunity to become the first politician from Florida to be elected president.”
The Florida platform counters criticism from Trump, who is trying to portray DeSantis, his closest potential competitor, at least according to early polls, as a “Reagan Republican” as opposed to a “MAGA” one. DeSantis’s support did erode in last week’s CPAC straw poll, from Trump 59% and DeSantis 28% in 2022 to Trump 62% and DeSantis 20% this year. DeSantis did not speak at CPAC, instead delivering remarks at a Club for Growth retreat in Florida.
DeSantis has been crisscrossing the country for his national book tour, including fundraisers in California and Texas. He is additionally scheduled to be in Iowa next week, days before Trump is set to be in the first-in-the-nation caucus state for Republicans.
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Former New Hampshire attorney general and Republican National Committee member Tom Rath, from the first-in-the-nation primary state for Republicans, queried whether DeSantis’a State of the State would “mean much” in New Hampshire, arguing that it is more important he “say something” in New Hampshire.
“Other ‘candidates,’ [Trump U.N. Ambassador Nikki] Haley, [Trump Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo, and [Trump Vice President Mike] Pence have been here already,” he said. “Trump, through the remnants of his ‘16/’20 runs has a remaining political presence here. DeSantis has no identifiable team or person on the ground here as of yet.”
