Analysis: Three things to know about the Kraken’s playoff pursuit

NASHVILLE — Some folks keep writing in to ask about why we seem so confident the Kraken will make the playoffs and whether we’re “tempting the hockey gods” by not being more respectful of teams chasing them.

It’s a good question, and there are very specific answers. First, no actual god worth praying to should give a hoot about the NHL, playoff races or whether the Kraken maintain Friday’s six-point lead over the Nashville Predators or seven-point edge on the Calgary Flames. The planet has bigger concerns. 

As for the superstitious out there, my guess is the so called “hockey gods” — in Montreal we called them the “Forum ghosts” — have been around so long they’re probably perplexed by a modern wild-card and “loser point” system that seemingly keeps all but the most pathetic teams in playoff contention until the final day or two. If anything, they’d probably do all in their power to eliminate fraud teams from a supposed race. 

All kidding aside, I get people are superstitious about sports. Even I used to sit in the same position on the basement floor, two feet from my old television and not allow myself to budge or even think of victory until the Canadiens secured the night’s playoff win.

That was all going great until Game 1 of the 1993 division semifinals when Montreal was up 2-0 on the Quebec Nordiques with only 89 seconds to play. Patrick Roy was in net, so what could possibly go wrong? Well, two goals in 41 seconds, that’s what — the second one by current Colorado general manager Joe Sakic to send the game to overtime. Scott Young quickly won it for the Nordiques and I was left with a sore, aching body from being tensed up so hard for hours, certain of my misguided knowledge that a singular superstitious devotion to not moving a muscle would result in victory.

I was 24 at the time and old enough to know better. After that night I gave up, moved those muscles and let outcomes decide themselves. Montreal that spring bounced back, won an NHL record 10 consecutive overtime games and notched Canada’s final Stanley Cup victory of the past 30 years. With no help from me.

Bottom line: If you want superstition, this isn’t the place to come. If you want analysis and a less-achy body, you’re in business.

Here are three things to know about the Kraken’s pursuit of their first playoff berth:

Any teams behind the Kraken have a chance?

Of course they do. While we’re at it, Nashville can theoretically finish the season winning 14 in a row and capturing the No. 1 Western Conference seeding. 

But sports are more about probabilities than superstition or wishful thinking. So when you’re gauging races, it helps to see what teams have historically done. 

All our Kraken playoff assurances have been predicated on one thing: Them not collapsing. So far they haven’t. They’ve taken three of four points to start this tough road trip. 

That’s why they entered Friday with the MoneyPuck statistical website pegging their playoff chances at 97.4% compared with just 10.5% for a Nashville team that has Saturday’s head-to-head matchup remaining with a game in hand.

After the Kraken infamously lost 4-0 to the San Jose Sharks on Feb. 21, their playoff odds were 91.4%, and their lead over the final non-playoff team chasing them was seven points. With all the trials and tribulations since, they’ve ceded just one standings point and jumped another six percentage points in probability.

Now, could the Kraken collapse and lose, say, eight of their final 11 games in regulation and give the Predators an opening? Sure, but will they? History shows the Kraken lost eight of 11 in one December stretch. But even then, they snagged a “loser point” — a point secured in an overtime or shootout loss — against Vancouver.

So they’d probably need to lose nine of their final 11 in regulation to give Nashville realistic hope without a remarkable finish. The Kraken haven’t lost at that rate all season. 

The Kraken’s schedule gets easier after this trip. The probabilities are not in Nashville’s favor. 

How about the quality of teams?

This matters plenty. If you’re going to argue the Flames — who have a stronger roster than Nashville on paper — can catch the Kraken, it helps to view results within proper context. 

MoneyPuck gives a nod to Calgary’s talent and strength of schedule edge over the Predators by placing their playoff odds at 10.3 % — roughly the same as Nashville’s — despite having three fewer games remaining and needing six points to catch Winnipeg and seven to catch the Kraken. 

Calgary’s record is 32 wins, 41 losses. That isn’t very good. Their “fake .500” record is 32-26-15 so “loser points” have artificially sustained their playoff push. Can Calgary win eight or nine in a row? Their roster might be good enough. But that roster last won three consecutive games about 2½ months ago. 

Dig beyond the standings

A reader emailed Friday to object to me writing that Nashville has a more realistic chance to catch Winnipeg than Seattle despite the second wild-card positioned Jets being only a point behind the Kraken.

OK, but the Jets have played two more games than the Kraken and three more than the Predators. Three games in hand are significant, as Nashville could pass Winnipeg by winning all of them, unlikely as that might be. 

Also, the Jets have gone seven consecutive games without scoring more than three goals. Unlike “loser point” teams — the Jets have an NHL-low three such points all season — Winnipeg has avoided collapse due to goalie Connor Hellebuyck saving them from a long losing streak.

So, yeah, the Jets are on much shakier ground. But MoneyPuck still has the Jets at an 82.9% playoff chance, showing how unlikely it is the Predators can win enough to overtake them.

Want a real playoff race? Check out the Eastern Conference, where the Florida Panthers and Pittsburgh Penguins are flip-flopping daily for the No. 8 seeding. Pittsburgh has a 63.8% remaining playoff chance and Florida 47%, but that’s based largely on schedule strength.

And those odds are still far closer than anything in the West. Stumbling Pittsburgh had dropped five of six, and Florida — last season’s Presidents Trophy winner — had won six of seven before two recent defeats. 

So there’s a real example of one team apparently capable of collapsing and another of going on a huge streak. That’s a real playoff race and not just NHL-engineered points optics.