WA 2023 Spring Forecast: Dry With A Fair Shot For Warm Days

WASHINGTON — Nearly half of the country is at increased risk for flooding this spring, according to the 2023 spring weather outlook released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but Washington may be in for a bit of a dry run.

The vernal equinox arrives Monday afternoon.

Seattle logged its first 60-degree day of the year on Friday, trailing considerably behind its average first day for the milestone on Feb. 26. The National Weather Service said that places 2023 in the bottom third for its warming pace. The next threshold to clear is 70 degrees, which typically happens by April 15. If the spring outlook is any indication, Washington may make up some ground.

The good news overall in NOAA's forecast for April through June is that the worst of the drought in the western U.S. may be over. For the first time since 2020, exceptional and extreme drought have been wiped out in parched California, and as snowpack melts, combined with recent storms, conditions could improve even more.

However, extreme or exceptional drought conditions are expected to persist through spring across parts of the High Plains, according to the forecast. Drought conditions are also expected to persist in parts of the Northwest and the Northern Rockies, and could develop in central and eastern Washington and far south in New Mexico.

In Florida, the drought could disappear by the end of June.

The spring wet season should also improve drought conditions across parts of the Central Plains. But with it comes an increased risk of flooding.

About 44 percent of the continental U.S., roughly the eastern half, is at risk of flooding this spring, according to Ed Clark, director of NOAA’s National Water Center. The risk is greatest in the Mississippi River basin, from Minneapolis to St. Louis.

Flooding threats also exist in the Sierra Nevada mountains, especially in high elevations, as record snowpack, combined with elevated soil moisture, begins to melt.

The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to see above-average precipitation, while the opposite is expected for the Southwest and parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Western Washington is one of the few places in the country where the seasonal outlook strongly favors a drier-than-average spring, and temperatures may start to track more seasonal, too. That would be in stark contrast to last year, when wintry weather hung on well past its welcome.

People living in the southern and eastern half of the country should prepare for a warm spring, with above-average temperatures forecast from the southern High Plains east to Florida and north along the East Coast. Hawaii and Alaska are also expected to see a warmer-than-usual spring, but it’s expected to remain chilly in the central Great Basin and the northern Plains.

The spring outlook is influenced by the end of a triple-dip La Niña, a climate pattern that worsens drought conditions and increases hurricane activity.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern is based on changes in rainfall and sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and influences temperature and precipitation around the world. La Niña occurs when ocean temperatures are cooler than normal and rainfall is reduced in the eastern to central Pacific Ocean.

"La Niña has finally ended after being in place continuously for more than two years," said Jon Gottschalck, of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "ENSO-neutral — the transition period between El Niño and La Niña — is likely to continue into the early summer with elevated chances of El Niño developing thereafter."

El Niño can have significant impacts on weather in the Western Hemisphere, as warmer waters push the Pacific jet stream south. Typically, this brings drier and warmer weather to the northern parts of the U.S. and Canada, while bringing wetter conditions to the South and Southwest.