Massachusetts On Track To Contain Coronavirus: Here's How

BOSTON — Gov. Charlie Baker said he's encouraged by the progress Massachusetts has made in containing the spread of the coronavirus.

While other states such as Florida and Texas have seen recent spikes in cases, Massachusetts has continued to see sharp declines in new cases and hospitalization rates, Baker said during a news conference Tuesday.

As of Monday, 937 people statewide were hospitalized with COVID-19, which was a 74 percent drop since April 15, he said.

The drop in positive tests was even more encouraging, Baker said. The seven-day average positive test rate dropped to 1.9 percent Monday, a 93 percent drop since April 15. Baker also said protests stemming from the death of George Floyd didn't create a spike, with just 2.5 percent of people testing positive after taking a free test following demonstrations.

"We’re encouraged by our continued progress on COVID-19 with respect to our public health metrics," Baker said. "We continue to monitor that key public health data as we move forward towards the next phase."

A group of epidemiologists recently backed up Baker's claim that COVID-19 numbers in Massachusetts are heading in the right direction. The group Covid Act Now determined that Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey are the only states on track to contain the coronavirus.

Michigan had been in the select group Monday but dropped out Tuesday because the group determined the state did not have enough contact tracing staff to contain new outbreaks.

Despite encouraging news in Massachusetts, Baker said residents need to continue taking precautions to avoid outbreaks that have recently hit other states. Baker said people need to continue to wear face coverings, social distance and stay home if sick.

"COVID-19 will not take a summer vacation," Baker said. "Other states are seeing surges right now. It's a clear indication of how important it is for people to stay vigilant, and we want to avoid anything like that happening in Massachusetts."

Epidemiologists Say MA On Track To Contain Coronavirus

The state's daily number of cases have dropped dramatically since there was a surge in cases in March and April, but the Bay State still has the sixth-highest number of overall cases in the United States. The figure rose to 107,210 on Monday. A total of 7,874 people have died.

On Monday, 149 cases were reported, a 97 percent drop from the highest daily number of 4,946 on April 24.

Deaths also have dropped dramatically: On Monday, 17 additional fatalities were reported, a 95 percent drop from April 29.

Here is the Monday map from Covid Act Now, a nonprofit consortium of health care and public policy leaders from across the nation, including researchers and epidemiologists from Georgetown University and Stanford University.

Here is why Massachusetts is doing well, according to Covid Act Now:

Contact Tracing: Massachusetts has around 1,500 contact tracers, and with an average of 220 new daily cases, Covid Act Now estimates Massachusetts needs 1,100 contact tracing staff to trace all new cases in 48 hours. This means Massachusetts is likely able to trace 100 percent of new COVID-19 infections in 48 hours, the group said. "When this level of tracing is coupled with widely available testing, COVID can be contained without resorting to lockdowns," the group said.

Infection rate: On average, each person in Massachusetts with COVID-19 is infecting 0.75 other people, according to Covid Act Now. "Because each person is infecting less than one other person, the total number of current cases in Massachusetts is shrinking," the group said.

ICU headroom used: Massachusetts has about 2,000 ICU beds, and Covid Act Now estimates that 35 percent are currently occupied by non-coronavirus patients. "With 1,295 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 208 are needed by COVID-19 cases, or 31 percent of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections," the group said.

Positive test rate: A low percentage (2.6 percent) of COVID-19 tests were positive, "which suggests enough widespread, aggressive testing in Massachusetts to detect most new cases," the group said. "Identifying and isolating new cases can help contain COVID without resorting to lockdowns."