Florida football: 6 swing games that could impact the Gators' 2023 season

Florida football enters a critical second season under head coach Billy Napier with modest expectations.

A new quarterback (Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz or Ohio State transfer Jack Miller) will take the reins of the offense. On defense, there is hope that new coordinator Austin Armstrong will transform a unit that ranked 12th in the SEC in yards allowed (411.0 ypg) and last in third-down defensive efficiency (49.7 percent) last season.

Perception is that 2023 will end up another rebuilding year for the Gators after posting back-to-back 6-7 seasons in 2021 and 2022. The betting app DraftKings set the over-under for Florida's win total at 5.5, second lowest in the SEC, ahead of only Vanderbilt.

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Former Florida quarterback and Gator Radio color analyst Shane Matthews is more bullish on UF's chances. Matthews has predicted on his Podcast, "Pod Up with Matthews in the Morning," that the Gators will win at least eight games. He thinks Florida will make progress due to better familiarity of the offense and defense in year two under Napier.

"LSU and Georgia are the only two losses I see on the schedule," Matthews said. "Every other game is winnable."

If Florida is to take a step forward in Napier's second season, it could hinge on the following six games:

August 31 at Utah

In a Thursday night prime-time matchup to start the season for both teams, the Utes will be vying for revenge after losing 29-26 at The Swamp last season. The Gators won in a dramatic finish, when departed linebacker Amari Burney Jr. intercepted a pass from Utah quarterback Cameron Rising in the closing seconds. Departed quarterback Anthony Richardson fueled UF's offense with three rushing TDs.

Last season, humidity was an element that Utah dealt with in its trip to Gainesville. This season, Florida will have to contend with the altitude at Utah, with the elevation at Salt Lake City sitting close to a mile (4,200 feet).

The game could hinge on the status of Rising, who sat out the spring with a torn ACL suffered in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. If Rising isn't ready, Utah will turn to Brandon Rose at quarterback. Utah also lost tight end Dalton Kincaid to the NFL Draft, but brings back tight end Brant Kuithe, who scored a TD against the Gators last season.

Sept. 16 Tennessee

Florida's SEC opener at the The Swamp should provide a frenzied atmosphere against a Vols team coming off its best season (11-2) since 2001.

The good news? Florida won't have to contend with quarterback Hendon Hooker, who torched the Gators for 349 yards passing, 112 yards rushing and a combined three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) last season in a 38-33 loss in Knoxville. Instead, the Vols will likely start the 2023 season with Joe Milton at quarterback. Milton has been inconsistent in his career with both Michigan and UT.

Florida hasn't lost to Tennessee in The Swamp since 2003, a streak the Gators will need to extend in order to get off on the right foot in conference play.

Sept. 30 at Kentucky

The Gators have lost two straight and three of their last five against Kentucky in a yearly rivalry UF used to dominate. Florida won 31 straight against Kentucky from 1987-2017.

Florida will look to avenge a 26-16 loss to Kentucky last season in which Richardson played his worst game of the season (14 of 35, 143 yards, 2 interceptions, including one returned for a TD). Kentucky lost starting quarterback Will Levis to the NFL but brings in N.C. State transfer quarterback Devin Leary, who passed for 6,806 yards and 62 TDs in four seasons with the Wolfpack.

Oct. 14 at South Carolina

The Gators played their most complete game of 2022 in a 38-6 drubbing of the Gamecocks at The Swamp. But their last trip to South Carolina didn't go as well. Florida lost 40-17 at Williams-Bryce Stadium in 2021, a game that signaled the beginning of the end of the Dan Mullen era.

South Carolina posted upsets against Tennessee and Clemson to go 8-5 last season. Expectations are high for the Gamecocks in 2023 with the return of quarterback Spencer Rattler in head coach Shane Beamer's third season.

Nov. 4 Arkansas

Florida will return to the field a week after playing a physical game against two-time defending champion and rival Georgia.

How will the Gators respond? Will there be any key injuries? To Napier and his staff's credit, UF didn't suffer a hangover after losing to Georgia last season, traveling halfway across the country to beat Texas A&M, 41-24. The Aggies, though, played with a depleted roster due to a flu outbreak that sidelined several key players, including starting quarterback Conner Weigman.

Arkansas is coming off a 7-6 season and returns starting quarterback K.J. Jefferson, a dual threat who passed for 2,648 yards and 24 TDs last season while rushing for 640 yards and 9 TDs.

Nov. 25 Florida State

Florida will be returning from its longest road trip of the season, a cold-weather game at Missouri, when it plays the Seminoles at The Swamp in its regular-season finale.

FSU enters the 2023 season with lofty expectations with the return of starting quarterback Jordan Travis and pass-rushing standout Jared Verse, who returned to school despite being a projected NFL first-round draft pick.

Florida was competitive in a 45-38 loss at Florida State last season, a game in which returning receiver Ricky Pearsall had a big day with 5 catches for 148 yards an 2 TDs. But the Gators were unable to contain Travis, who passed for 270 yards and a TD while rushing for 83 yards and two more TDs. Keeping Travis in check will be job one if the Gators are to pull off a win against their in-state rival.