Much of the New England Patriots’ offseason was easy to foresee. They needed help at cornerback, so they drafted one in the first round. They needed a new right tackle, so they signed a couple of veterans to compete for the starting role. They needed an offensive coordinator, so they brought back the trusted Bill O’Brien.
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One of the few surprises of the offseason, however, was the way the Pats shunned the wide receiver position, arguably their biggest weakness. They effectively swapped JuJu Smith-Schuster for Jakobi Meyers, which is close to a wash. They didn’t trade for anyone. They didn’t draft a wide receiver until the sixth round when they landed Kayshon Boutte.
Now, that could all change. The Patriots are poised to welcome three-time All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for a visit next week, according to NFL Media. They are in the running to sign the best available free agent, a player who would instantly become the team’s No. 1 target and bolster its weakest position. Hopkins visited Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans this week. Foxboro awaits early next week. After that, it’s unclear whether Hopkins will make a decision or tour more facilities.
As Hopkins mulls a new team and the Patriots contemplate a contract offer, let’s explore the pros and cons of signing the talented wideout.
Even when he's covered. He's open.@DeAndreHopkins x #BirdCityFootball pic.twitter.com/pX0DfJkFxv
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) October 30, 2022
Why the Pats should sign Hopkins
Let’s start here: The Patriots probably aren’t going to win the Super Bowl this year. The goals are clear and, frankly, a bit more realistic.
They want to get back into the playoffs, and they want to know by the end of the season exactly what they have in Mac Jones. After this season, Bill Belichick will have to decide whether to pick up Jones’ fifth-year option.
Hopkins would help them achieve both goals.
Let’s start with their playoff chances. The Pats have the hardest schedule in the league. They know that. They’re aware that even if they’re a little bit better than last season, they could still end up with a similar record given the challenges that await. So marginal improvement isn’t all that meaningful.
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Yet, so far, all we’ve seen in New England’s plan at wide receiver is marginal improvement. Smith-Schuster for Meyers. Banking on Tyquan Thornton to get better. That sort of thing. Hopkins would change that.
His numbers last season weren’t exactly eye-popping: 64 catches, 717 yards and three touchdowns in nine games. But they are worth a closer look. After serving a suspension to start the year, Hopkins only played in seven games with starting quarterback Kyler Murray. In that seven-game span, Hopkins led the NFL in catches, turning his 56 receptions into 653 yards and three touchdowns. To put it in perspective, that seven-game stretch alone would’ve made Hopkins the Patriots’ No. 2 receiver last year considering only Meyers topped 550 receiving yards a year ago.
There are fair concerns about his durability and age (both of which we’ll get to), but that span showed that when Hopkins has a starting-caliber quarterback, he can still be an elite wide receiver.
That leads us to Jones. The Patriots have yet to drastically change the quarterback’s receiving options despite his regression last season. They’re banking more on the new offensive coordinator leading to growth. Maybe that happens.
But by adding Hopkins, the Patriots can remove chance from the equation. If they gave Jones a true No. 1 wide receiver, as Hopkins showed last season he still can be, they’d know by the end of the year whether Jones is still the quarterback they want to build around — or whether it’s time to find someone new.
Lastly, a late veteran addition to the roster isn’t going to work unless Belichick is on board. With Hopkins, that’s not a problem. Before playing the Cardinals last season, Belichick gushed about Hopkins. “I think he’s every bit as good as anybody I’ve ever coached against,” Belichick said.
"I'm glad we only have to play you every four years."
The respect Bill Belichick has for @DeAndreHopkins 🙌#HardKnocks @AZCardinals — tonight 10pm ET on @HBOMax pic.twitter.com/ocdqJYsmXb
— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2022
Now, the Patriots are one of the few teams with the cap space and opportunity that Hopkins seeks. They have a chance to transform their offense. Belichick hasn’t shied away from adding veterans in the past, even players others around the league saw as too much of a risk. Hopkins could be the latest.
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Why the Pats should not sign Hopkins
Remember how we started the last section by mentioning that the Patriots probably aren’t going to win the Super Bowl? Well, neither are the Titans, the team with which Hopkins has already visited. It’s an indication that what matters most to Hopkins are opportunity (both teams have subpar receiver groups) and money (both have plenty of cap space). That’s his prerogative, and there’s nothing wrong with either factor.
But it also means he could be looking for a financial figure the Patriots might not be wise to offer. Odell Beckham Jr. upped the market for veteran wide receivers when he signed a one-year deal with the Ravens worth a mostly guaranteed $15 million. Hopkins likely will want to top that. And it’s possible he could seek more long-term security.
It’s not unreasonable for Hopkins to command a two-year deal worth between $35 million and $40 million. That’s a lot given the two other concerns that might give Belichick pause: Hopkins’ age and durability.
Hopkins just turned 31 this week. Most wide receivers see their production slip in their 30s. Then there’s the issue of durability. After playing in almost every game of his first eight NFL seasons, Hopkins has missed 15 of his last 34 games. He missed time in 2021 with two different injuries, one to his hamstring and one to his knee. He then was suspended for the start of the 2022 season for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. And he missed the final two games due to a knee injury.
Conclusion
For most of the offseason, the Patriots have watched as their division foes have gotten better (or, in the case of the Bills, already were better). The Pats have tried to improve on the margins and bank on better coaching leading to better results in 2023. That may still happen.
But after months of the Jets, Dolphins and Bills dominating the headlines, the Patriots have a chance to make the biggest splash of the NFL summer.
A roster that lacks a star player has a chance to land one. An offense without a true No. 1 option is about to have one walk through the doors of Gillette Stadium.
Sure, the contract might be tough to swallow if it doesn’t work out. But the Patriots should sign Hopkins before he has a chance to leave Foxboro next week.
(Photo: Harry How / Getty Images)
