Arizona reports 702 new COVID-19 cases, 40 deaths as virus spread stays relatively low

Arizona reported 702 new COVID-19 cases and 40 new known deaths on Tuesday as new-case counts continue fluctuating at relatively low levels. 

Arizona's seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 45th on Monday among all states and territories after ranking first and second for much of January, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVID Data Tracker.

The states with a lower case rate over the past seven days were Mississippi, Kansas, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, California and Hawaii. Arizona ranked 51st among 60 states and territories on March 28, but its rank has fluctuated.

The state's seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was 616 on Monday. The average had reached as high as 9,800 in January, according to state data.

Arizona's seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked 36th in the nation as of Monday, per the CDC.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it's measured.

Last week, Arizona's percent positivity was 6%, the highest it's been after six weeks at 5%, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Weekly percent positivity statewide peaked at 25% in December.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona's seven-day moving average of percent positives at 3% as of Tuesday. It shows the state's percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.

The state's overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 235 deaths per 100,000 people as of Monday, according to the CDC, putting it sixth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 169 deaths per 100,000 people as of Sunday, the CDC said.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 382 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Mississippi.

Arizona's case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began also ranks sixth nationwide as of Monday.

Arizona's newly reported 40 deaths brought the known COVID-19 death count to 17,193. The state surpassed 17,000 deaths on April 7, after passing 16,000 deaths on March 2, 15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona's first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks prior because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 855,155 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state. March and April have seen relatively lower case reports. Forty-one of the past 44 days' reported cases have been under 1,000.

The Arizona data dashboard shows 84% of all ICU beds and 86% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use Monday, with 9% of ICU beds and 7% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 280 ICU beds and 1,233 non-ICU beds were available. 

Hospitalizations for the disease generally dropped for about 13 weeks and recently appear to have plateaued somewhat.

The total number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was 562 on Monday, up from 555 on Sunday and far below the record 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. By comparison, the highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona was at 155 on Monday, up from 145 on Sunday and far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators tallied 76 on Monday, a slight uptick from the past few days and well below the record high 821 reached on Jan. 13. During the summer surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.

Monday saw 969 patients in the emergency room for COVID-19, well below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.

Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for health care workers, long-term care facilities and front-line first responders in mid-December. The state in early March shifted to a largely age-based rollout and in late March began allowing anyone 16 and older to start registering for appointments.

More than 2.7 million people statewide had received at least one vaccine dose as of Tuesday, with more than 1.9 million people fully vaccinated against COVID-19, state data show. Arizona has about 5.6 million adults age 18 and older.

What to know about Tuesday's numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 855,155.

Cases since the outbreak began increased by 702, or 0.08%, from Monday's 854,453 identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the state health department, not by the date the tests were administered. 

Cases by county: 532,133 in Maricopa, 114,345 in Pima, 50,697 in Pinal, 36,991 in Yuma, 22,454 in Mohave, 18,541 in Yavapai, 17,514 in Coconino, 16,060 in Navajo, 11,832 in Cochise, 11,274 in Apache, 7,898 in Santa Cruz, 6,861 in Gila, 5,535 in Graham, 2,452 in La Paz and 568 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Yuma County, followed by Apache, Santa Cruz, Graham and Navajo counties, per state data. The rate in Yuma County is 16,086 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 9,483 cases per 100,000 people as of Monday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 30,371 cases and 1,262 confirmed deaths in total as of Monday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,268 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Monday, including 2,241 in Tucson, 2,029 in Eyman, 2,014 in Yuma, 1,303 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 46,323 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 2,754 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Forty-three incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 11 additional deaths under investigation.

Race/ethnicity is unknown for 17% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but 38% of positive cases have been diagnosed in white people, 30% Hispanic or Latino, 5% Native American, 3% Black and 1% Asian/Pacific Islander.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 16% were younger than 20, 44% were 20-44, 15% were 45-54, 12% were 55-64 and 13% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories had completed 4,178,574 diagnostic tests on unique individuals for COVID-19 as of Monday, 13.5% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests for the last full week was at 6%, following six full weeks at 5%. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The state Health Department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes. 

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result. 

Arizona as of Monday had the sixth-highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah and Tennessee, according to the CDC.

Arizona's infection rate is 11,730 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 9,483 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 17,193

Deaths by county: 9,787 in Maricopa, 2,386 in Pima, 863 in Pinal, 829 in Yuma, 704 in Mohave, 525 in Navajo, 498 in Yavapai, 424 in Apache, 328 in Coconino, 282 in Cochise, 227 in Gila, 174 in Santa Cruz, 79 in La Paz, 77 in Graham and 10 in Greenlee. 

People age 65 and older make up 12,888 of the 17,193 deaths, or 75%. Following that, 15% of deaths were in the 55-64 age group, 6% were 45-54 and 4% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 6% of deaths, 50% of those who died were white, 28% were Hispanic or Latino, 8% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.

The global death toll as of Tuesday morning was 3,033,145. The U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 567,755, according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona's death total of 17,193 deaths represents about 3% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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